Do we get a suprise ron paul surge in the s.c. primaries tomorrow?

[JamesButabi]

Probably not, but we can hope. The debate went extremely well last night, however how many people would interpret it that way? Look at all of the headlines; Ron Paul isn't the talk. Yahoo has him as a debate loser along with 2 other articles asking if Santorum can pull off an upset? The narratives in the media are a joke.

 

[angelatc]

19% will keep be from not being disappointed

At least some part of me would be ecstatic if we could get 20%. You have to get 20% in order to get delegates.

 

[ohgodno]

Please, please, please stop with the overall % of the votes – winning SC is out of the question based on the irrational love-fest of the Grinch.

The only thing to focus on now is WINNING A CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT (or two) - The overall % only matters for the WINNER. After that 2nd, 3rd, and 4th don't matter at all delegate-wise.

After that it's about winning congressional districts - this is how the delegates are split up in SC.

So like I had just said: even if Dr. Paul comes in DEAD LAST by total # of votes - but wins a low-population congressional district (and getting a small % of votes) - he would still win the SAME NUMBER OF DELEGATES that he would if he won the MOST-populated congressional district.

We can't win the state - so let's focus on what we can win - DELEGATES.

 

[Created4]

The current polls for SC are pretty useless given the events of yesterday, and it is unlikely any poll showing up today will reflect what happened yesterday. So it is entirely possible that there will be some surprises. One obvious reason is that people who said they would vote for Perry are included in those polls, and they will not vote for him now. A strong 3rd and close to the top 2 would be great. I would love to see a top 2 finish, but that is probably unlikely (although not impossible). The sooner we can get Santorum out of the race the better.

 

[bbwarfield]

people loved him in the debate... and they recognized that its not getting covered... Im not expecting a huge bump... but im expecting blowback to be in the making elections to come

 

[rb3b3]

quick question for you guys, do these debates go all the way through the voting period? if not when do they end? sorry im very new to all this, but very interested now since my heart has finally found a true honest politician with enormous integrity!!

 

[Okie RP fan]

No. For a few reasons.

Newt's story is reported of having a positive effect due to his takedown of CNN last night. Second, Glenn Beck had Santorum on this morning and unofficially endorsed him. Beck has millions of listeners, and I am sure there are plenty in S.C.
And Mitt's story had no effect.

 

[wgadget]

Did any of you guys read Erick Erickson's post about how the Ron Paul people are gonna sneak up on the Tampa convention with changeover delegates? It was very interesting, and it seemed to indicate a certain level of fear and respect for the strategy.

 

[Badger Paul]

A good day tomorrow would be:

1). Paul gets 20 percent and wins a congressional district
2). Gingrich wins
3). Santorum a distant fourth and pressure mounts on him to get out to consolidate conservatives, money dries up in next few days and he can't compete.

 

[wgadget]

quick question for you guys, do these debates go all the way through the voting period? if not when do they end? sorry im very new to all this, but very interested now since my heart has finally found a true honest politician with enormous integrity!!

Love ya, rb3b3! Welcome to the Ron Paul Revolution!

 

[WD-NY]

Ron is doing a 7 "whistle stops" today... that's going to generate a lot of local news coverage.

Lots of local news coverage + super strong debate performance last night + GOTV calling + independent/dem/anti-war turnout = anythings possible

 

[ohgodno]

A good day tomorrow would be:

1). Paul gets 20 percent and wins a congressional district
2). Gingrich wins
3). Santorum a distant fourth and pressure mounts on him to get out to consolidate conservatives, money dries up in next few days and he can't compete.

Yes. He can't come out without any delegates - even if he "wins" 32% of the vote and is let's say tied for 2nd but wins no delegates - we lose. I'd much rather get 15% and win delegates.

 

[Brett85]

I think 20% is probably the upper limit of what Ron will get tomorrow.

 

[jay_dub]

quick question for you guys, do these debates go all the way through the voting period? if not when do they end? sorry im very new to all this, but very interested now since my heart has finally found a true honest politician with enormous integrity!!

Link for debate schedule.

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/

 

[Badger Paul]

The thing of it is if Romney wins, he's not going to participate in the rest of the debates and he's just going to assume the nomination is his and act like it.

 

[milo10]

The best thing that could come out of this election is for Santorum to come crashing down and putting him under pressure to drop out before Florida.

I think Gingrich wins this one. That is really bad in some ways, really good in other ways.

 

[dmitchell]

I would consider beating Santorum a major win. Simply pulling double digits would be a win. Remember in 2008, RP won only 3.5% of the vote. If he doubles or triples his vote, like in IA and NH, he's still barely registering.

 

[69360]

After the events that took place this week, specifically the last 2 days (newts ex wife, mitts cayman islands, MOST IMPRTANTLY last nights debate) do you feel we will have a major suprise in south carolinas primaries tomorrow? i am hoping that south carolina is catching on to ron in a big way, especially when last nights audience demanded that the moderator get rons views on abortion. I am really hoping for a big time suprise tomorrow!!! what do you all think?? i feel ron gets 24% of the vote... whats your guess? im very interested to hear? Also many of the latest polls that have ron around 14% many of them are conducted on landline phones lol who uses landlines nowadays anyway(more speculation)?

No, he'll be lucky if he isn't last. Sorry that's reality. You're setting yourself up for major disappointment.

 

[bbwarfield]

Paul wont be last... but it will be close... he needs at least 5% over santorum to inch him out

 

[EBounding]

A strong third for Paul with Gingrich barely winning 1st would make the nomination still inconclusive and give Paul the chance to clean up on Super Tuesday. I know it's dangerous to keep Gingrich up there but I think it'll be easier to take him down than an "inevitable Romney".