Delegate Strategy Question

[Travlyr]

Paul Or Nothing II +reppppppppp

Do we have any confirmation that this delegate strategy is underway? I know there are a few RP delegates (in colorado, iowa and such), but do we have a hard number of the delegate distribution so far?

Yes, in my precinct all three delegates to the county assembly are Ron Paul people because we showed up, stuck around, and voted for them.

 

[Travlyr]

So, just a question following the discusion, is it possible that Ron has won all 76 delegates in the states above? (in theory)

My understanding... in March the precinct delegates meet to select county delegates. In April the county delegates meet to elect State delegates. The State delegates will meet in August, in Tampa, to nominate the presidential candidate.

 

[tbone717]

Obama lost the popular vote to Clinton.

Also, if Gingrich and santorum drop out their bound delegates still have to vote for them in the first rounds. They can't give their delegates away.

They can however, ask their unbound delegates to vote for another candidate. Just as we will have our people on the floor as unbound delegates, so will the other campaigns. Let's say for example that Romney is 100 vote shy of being able to win on the first ballot. He can strike a deal with Santorum for a cabinet slot, Santorum's people can then round up 100 of their unbound delegates as ask them to support Romney on the first ballot to avoid a brokered convention. When they get enough commitments so they are assured that Romney will win on the first ballot, then they will vote.

Again, for any of this to occur the primary season needs to drag out till the very end, with Romney, Santorum, Newt and/or Paul trading wins back and forth. At this point roughly 90% of the total delegates have yet to be awarded. Odds are that one of the four candidates will go into the convention with more than enough delegates to win on the first ballot.

The key for the Paul campaign, is not to pin their hopes on a brokered convention. But instead would be to catapult himself to a front runner position and start winning contests.

 

[tbone717]

Obama lost the popular vote to Clinton.

Also, if Gingrich and santorum drop out their bound delegates still have to vote for them in the first rounds. They can't give their delegates away.

They can however, ask their unbound delegates to vote for another candidate. Just as we will have our people on the floor as unbound delegates, so will the other campaigns. Let's say for example that Romney is 100 vote shy of being able to win on the first ballot. He can strike a deal with Santorum for a cabinet slot, Santorum's people can then round up 100 of their unbound delegates as ask them to support Romney on the first ballot to avoid a brokered convention. When they get enough commitments so they are assured that Romney will win on the first ballot, then they will vote.

Again, for any of this to occur the primary season needs to drag out till the very end, with Romney, Santorum, Newt and/or Paul trading wins back and forth. At this point roughly 90% of the total delegates have yet to be awarded. Odds are that one of the four candidates will go into the convention with more than enough delegates to win on the first ballot.

The key for the Paul campaign, is not to pin their hopes on a brokered convention. But instead would be to catapult himself to a front runner position and start winning contests.

 

[Romer]

My understanding... in March the precinct delegates meet to select county delegates. In April the county delegates meet to elect State delegates. The State delegates will meet in August, in Tampa, to nominate the presidential candidate.

Thank you for the explanation. I am not from the US, so I didn't quite understand all this delegate procedure. Now it's much more clear how it works.
So if I got it right, in ref to my original question, these 76 are actually final state's delegates which will be elected in April.

 

[tbone717]

Thank you for the explanation. I am not from the US, so I didn't quite understand all this delegate procedure. Now it's much more clear how it works.
So if I got it right, in ref to my original question, these 76 are actually final state's delegates which will be elected in April.

www.thegreenpapers.com has each states delegate selection rules.

 

[Travlyr]

Thank you for the explanation. I am not from the US, so I didn't quite understand all this delegate procedure. Now it's much more clear how it works.
So if I got it right, in ref to my original question, these 76 are actually final state's delegates which will be elected in April.

Right. That's the way I understand it works in my State. So the media is totally lying to the people in order to quell momentum.

 

[opinionatedfool]

Ron Paul and supporters are pretty open about the fact that we are after delegate count. I'm not sure how that's deception.

 

[SCOTUSman]

You don't need to win 5 states to become the nominee. That is why there is talk of Rubio and Christie in a brokered convention. You don't need a single popular vote to win. A brokered convention....you can win any which way you can. Heck on the first ballot you can win any which way...the only thing that matters is getting 1144 delegates. You get that many to vote for you on any given ballot whether the first (where many delegates are bound) or subsequent ballots (where nearly everyone is unbound, except Florida through first four ballots)...you get 1144 delegates voting for a given person, that person wins.

 

[eqcitizen]

Does anyone know the difference in the delegate strategy between caucus states and primary states?

 

[tbone717]

You don't need to win 5 states to become the nominee. That is why there is talk of Rubio and Christie in a brokered convention. You don't need a single popular vote to win. A brokered convention....you can win any which way you can. Heck on the first ballot you can win any which way...the only thing that matters is getting 1144 delegates. You get that many to vote for you on any given ballot whether the first (where many delegates are bound) or subsequent ballots (where nearly everyone is unbound, except Florida through first four ballots)...you get 1144 delegates voting for a given person, that person wins.

The rules state: "Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination."

So in order for a motion to be made to place a candidate's name for nomination, they need to have that plurality from five states. Of the seven states that have already held their contests, four of them have yet to award their delegates since they have a state convention process. It is possible that Paul may have a plurality in all of those states or in none of those states. We do know that at present Romney has a plurality in two states (NH & FL), Gingrich has one state (SC).

 

[tbone717]

Does anyone know the difference in the delegate strategy between caucus states and primary states?

It all depends on how the delegates are awarded. Some primaries are "winner take all", some are proportional based on the vote totals, some award delegates statewide and by congressional distrtict. So it is a mixed bag

 

[Travlyr]

The Media lies all the time... believe what they say at your own peril...

According to these folks http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ .. here is the scorecard so far.

"Soft" Delegates
Need to Nominate 1,144
(available) 2,079
W Romney 99
N Gingrich 41
R Santorum 39
R Paul 28
Total 2,286

All the negative nitwits on RPF who are working to crush our momentum are simply TV watchers parroting the lying ass media shills. Don't believe their bullshit.

Delegates Matter. Become a Delegate for Ron Paul

Beauty contest are for the TV crowd who don't show up to vote in primaries or caucuses. Rick Santorum won the beauty contest the last couple of days, but he, and Newt, screwed up and did not get on the ballot in many States. So Santorum and Gingrich will have a harder time winning the nomination.

Ron Paul can win.

 

[gte811i]

The rules state: "Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination."

So in order for a motion to be made to place a candidate's name for nomination, they need to have that plurality from five states. Of the seven states that have already held their contests, four of them have yet to award their delegates since they have a state convention process. It is possible that Paul may have a plurality in all of those states or in none of those states. We do know that at present Romney has a plurality in two states (NH & FL), Gingrich has one state (SC).

The way I read it is you do not have to win any of the popular vote. IMO this just means that in order to win the nomination you have to win at least 5 states in the delegate count. (We may be saying the same thing . . . )

You could win no states in the popular vote. Say Paul has 15% of the popular vote, never wins a state, yet 60% of the delegates are Paul people. If no candidate outright wins on the 1st ballot, then on the 2nd ballot Paul gets 1144 delegates. From those 1144 delegates, he has to have a plurality from at least 5 states, i.e. win 5 states in the delegate count.

 

[gte811i]

I think what this is doing is preventing someone from say winning all the delegates from Tx, California,NY, getting 419 delegates and then picking up 43% of the rest of the delegates to get to 1144 but never winning another state (if only 2 people are running).

 

[tbone717]

The way I read it is you do not have to win any of the popular vote. IMO this just means that in order to win the nomination you have to win at least 5 states in the delegate count. (We may be saying the same thing . . . )

You could win no states in the popular vote. Say Paul has 15% of the popular vote, never wins a state, yet 60% of the delegates are Paul people. If no candidate outright wins on the 1st ballot, then on the 2nd ballot Paul gets 1144 delegates. From those 1144 delegates, he has to have a plurality from at least 5 states, i.e. win 5 states in the delegate count.

I believe this rule pertains to nominating someone from the floor prior to the first ballot. But yes, this does mean that someone does not have to win the popular vote in a state, simply they need to have a plurality of delegates. So let's assume when IA has their state convention Paul has 10 delegates from the state and all the other delegates have less than 10, then in that case Paul would have a plurality in one state.

 

[Paul Or Nothing II]

We do know that at present Romney has a plurality in two states (NH & FL), Gingrich has one state (SC).

So much for "live free or die" motto!