Where Are The Damn Polls!!

[limequat]

Also FBN likely won't use all the polls in RCP. I suspect PPP will not be counted. Maybe not ARG or Gravis either. Using the remaining polls, the true story of who is being marginalized/protected becomes clear. Bush meets each of the 3 criteria is in the last place for all 3 and within 1% of being bumped in 2.

 

[limequat]

nm

 

[r3volution 3.0]

FOX NH

Trump - 33
Rubio - 15
Cruz - 12
Bush - 9
Kasich - 7
Paul - 5 (+2)

 

[jkob]

Would be nice if Rand could somehow elevate himself to 4th place in the polls before Iowa, put himself with in striking distance of 3rd. Needs Carson to disappear or Cruz to start fading for that to happen tho I think, if Rand makes a move it needs to be soon.

 

[Brett85]

Rand should be in the debates since he's at 5% in both New Hampshire and Iowa. Fox News trying to control the narrative of the election by only allowing five or six candidates in the next debate is just complete B.S.

 

[Crashland]

So, nationally, Rand would need 2 more polls and would need to outperform Bush by a combined 3 points, in order to tie for 6th...
Or, if there are 3 more polls, outperforming Bush by 1 point combined.

NH is out of reach. Iowa is closer but that would be a stretch too. Will be interesting to see how this plays out....

 

[r3volution 3.0]

So, nationally, Rand would need 2 more polls and would need to outperform Bush by a combined 3 points, in order to tie for 6th...
Or, if there are 3 more polls, outperforming Bush by 1 point combined.

NH is out of reach. Iowa is closer but that would be a stretch too. Will be interesting to see how this plays out....

Are they including the polls from before Christmas?

 

[laissez faire]

3 NH polls, had not seen Reach before:

Fox
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...-new-hampshire-gop-presidential-primary-race/

NH1/Reach
http://www.nh1.com/news/new-nh1-new...-jeb-bush-narrowly-edges-john-kasich-for-2nd/

PPP
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_10616.pdf

 

[Crashland]

Are they including the polls from before Christmas?

I believe they are including the most recent 5 polls as of 6pm Monday, for Iowa, NH and national. Probably ones like PPP, Gravis and YouGov won't count.

 

[TheNewYorker]

So he's out? For sure?

 

[Crashland]

So he's out? For sure?

Not for sure, but it doesn't look promising.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

So he's out? For sure?

If there are no more polls between now and Monday 6pm, yes.

...but I think there'll be more.

 

[somename043]

So he's out? For sure?

Depends on polls released. He has until jan 11th at 6pm

 

[mit26chell]

Seems like they're intentionally holding polls to screw Rand. Now why would they do that? I like that Rand is taking a firm stand and letting people know he has a first tier campaign though. He's getting out in front of the narrative before it even starts.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

Seems like they're intentionally holding polls to screw Rand. Now why would they do that? I like that Rand is taking a firm stand and letting people know he has a first tier campaign though. He's getting out in front of the narrative before it even starts.

Correct. And FOX also did this in 2008 to exclude Ron, they were just less inclined to provide a cover explanation for narrowing the contenders included. As soon as we get close to the actual primary voting each go round, it seems the memo goes out to the media to transition to a hard blackout of Paul.

 

[derek4ever]

Rand should be in the debates since he's at 5% in both New Hampshire and Iowa. Fox News trying to control the narrative of the election by only allowing five or six candidates in the next debate is just complete B.S.

Or they could have 3 debates in 1 day, with polling not being factored in and candidates debate other candidates at random. Let's say there are 3 debates and a total of 4 or 5 candidates in each debate. Everything would be at random. Then you can have the top 2 candidates from each debate go to a final debate a day or so later. Again, it's only an idea.

 

[TheNewYorker]

I think Rand got on the Colbert show and the view too late to see a bump in these polls. These were probably actually taken before he was on those shows

 

[Zippyjuan]

He needs Top Five in New Hampshire or Iowa or Top Six nationally to participate. The polls they went by last time were:

Fox News
Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP
Quinnipiac University
The Wall Street Journal/NBC News.

Fox updated for week ending 1/7 has Rand and Christie at 2% for the final spot nationally. They are both tied again for the last spot in New Hampshire at 5% each. In Iowa he trails the last spot to Bush by 5% to 7%.

Other polls not updated at least since 12/17.

 

[69360]

I think Rand got on the Colbert show and the view too late to see a bump in these polls. These were probably actually taken before he was on those shows

I seriously doubt potential GOP primary voters polled watch Colbert.

 

[CPUd]

Correct. And FOX also did this in 2008 to exclude Ron, they were just less inclined to provide a cover explanation for narrowing the contenders included. As soon as we get close to the actual primary voting each go round, it seems the memo goes out to the media to transition to a hard blackout of Paul.

He's been on just about every show out there in the last week.