What states can Paul win, realistically?

[hueylong]

Driver -- if you don't know the difference between "latter" and "ladder" -- I'm not really interested in any political analysis you care to lay on people.

 

[TheDriver]

Driver -- if you don't know the difference between "latter" and "ladder" -- I'm not really interested in any political analysis you care to lay on people.

Give me a break a@@hole, I've already edited it.

 

[everlasticity]

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

I agree. I think we should change the conversation to gaining enough support to ensure delegates, rather than looking for the win. That way we can all be honest with ourselves and what is going on here. Ron Paul supporters don't need to believe that Ron will win, we will vote for him and campaign for him no matter what. Being honest with ourselves is the best strategy to gain the support of others.

 

[seyferjm]

I will keep in mind any states Ron does exceptionally well in as potential places to move to after I graduate college.

Same here.

 

[69360]

The fat lady is singing, isn't she?

She's warming up backstage.

The race won't be decided with delegates--mark my words. We're going in the wrong direction (2nd, 3rd, 4th). I don't see any state we can win, and I don't see us picking up many supporters from the other candidates--due to principle stands taken by Ron that has cost us political capital. We can slug it out, and waste our money on a losing process, or we can get out of the way and focus on winnable races. I'm going with the latter, I'm afraid. If I see something that changes my mind, I reserve that right.

The problem with the delegate strategy is that after April 1st when it goes winner take all the polling numbers are really bad and no signs of them changing.

There's a slim chance left, but it's not likely Ron can win the GOP nomination barring some unforseen event. I'm still voting for him in the primary here no matter what, I stand on principle.

I wish he'd quit tomorrow and start a viable 3rd party movement in the country. I don't think he'd win that either but it could be a start to something good and worthwhile.

 

[TheDriver]

The problem with the delegate strategy is that after April 1st when it goes winner take all the polling numbers are really bad and no signs of them changing.

There's a slim chance left, but it's not likely Ron can win the GOP nomination barring some unforseen event. I'm still voting for him in the primary here no matter what, I stand on principle.

I wish he'd quit tomorrow and start a viable 3rd party movement in the country. I don't think he'd win that either but it could be a start to something good and worthwhile.

Great points!

 

[realtonygoodwin]

The race won't be decided with delegates--mark my words. We're going in the wrong direction (2nd, 3rd, 4th). I don't see any state we can win, and I don't see us picking up many supporters from the other candidates--due to principle stands taken by Ron that has cost us political capital. We can slug it out, and waste our money on a losing process, or we can get out of the way and focus on winnable races. I'm going with the latter, I'm afraid. If I see something that changes my mind, I reserve that right.

actually, he went 3, 2, 4

 

[virgil47]

THey're not competing in FL. It's a waste of time and money. I agree with that decision. But if he can't win a single primary, it's going to be really hard to keep people motivated.

Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota - I think that he could win there if the campaign does its job. If they can pull that off, then New York and California could be in play as well.

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

While I agree with most of your post I must disagree with the Florida part. The sad truth is not that he's not competing in Florida it is that he's not competitive in Florida. The reason being that neither he nor his campaign staff have bothered to formulate a method to attract the over 55 crowd. Unfortunately without this age demographic Ron Pauls chances of winning the Presidency are slim to none. And please no saying I'm anti Paul and such. I am a Committee Precinct Officer and will be a delegate for Ron at my county convention just as I was in 2008.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

He can win all of the remaining states (well, maybe all except Florida) if everyone who likes him turns out to vote. Voter turnout in the primaries has been very low. John McCain won with 8 million votes last time. If Ron Paul's support is at 10-15 percent nationally, that would be easily 10 to 15 million votes. Unfortunately, most people don't vote in the primaries.

you just explained the whole key

 

[Karsten]

data
States where Paul received more than 10% of the votes in 2008.

Pennsylvania (16%)
Oregon (15%)
Idaho (24%)
New Mexico (14%)
South Dakota (17%)
Kansas (11%)
North Dakota (21%)
Montana (25%)
Minnesota (16%)
Alaska (17%)
Maine (18%)
Nevada (14%)

What is it about the upper mountain states that makes it fertile Ron Paul territory?

 

[Karsten]

While I agree with most of your post I must disagree with the Florida part. The sad truth is not that he's not competing in Florida it is that he's not competitive in Florida. The reason being that neither he nor his campaign staff have bothered to formulate a method to attract the over 55 crowd. Unfortunately without this age demographic Ron Pauls chances of winning the Presidency are slim to none. And please no saying I'm anti Paul and such. I am a Committee Precinct Officer and will be a delegate for Ron at my county convention just as I was in 2008.

The internet enthusiasm took Ron Paul be surprise in 2007, I believe, and he's played to the young/libertarian crowd for the most part. That's fine for a general election, but not so much in the Republican primaries. Ron could have just as easily played for the hardcore conservative Goldwater older crowd, if he just used a little bit different rhetoric.

 

[libertybrewcity]

What is it about the upper mountain states that makes it fertile Ron Paul territory?

Small, rural, libertarian

 

[abstrusezincate]

Is there anyone out in Nevada who can say how things are going out there?

 

[ironj221]

Is there anyone out in Nevada who can say how things are going out there?

I live in Vegas....have seen ZERO political signs at all. Not even Ron Paul, nothing. I'm the only one with a sign. That being said, I don't go into neighborhoods much.

I used to live in Arizona and I would always see political signs on the side of roads back in '08. That isn't happening here that I can see.

 

[mello]

Ron Paul would have won in Louisiana in 2008 but got screwed over by shenanigans!!! Details below:

http://infowars.net/articles/january2008/250108Win.htm

 

[kpitcher]

I've been busy with sick family the last few days so haven't been able to keep up. BUT I do have a few simple questions.

Did Newt's 2nd wife interviews play out in the news already? All I've seen has been comments about Newt getting such a good response for him slamming CNN at the debate for even answering.

Are there any legs to the WSJ's questioning the legalility of Mitt's IRA?

If we could have other states crush Newt for his huge baggage, and Mitt imploding for illegal investments and tax rates that only hedge fund managers get, it could get even more interesting.

 

[thoughtomator]

This might get very interesting if the bound delegates are bound to vote to unbind themselves.

 

[eleganz]

I live in Vegas....have seen ZERO political signs at all. Not even Ron Paul, nothing. I'm the only one with a sign. That being said, I don't go into neighborhoods much.

I used to live in Arizona and I would always see political signs on the side of roads back in '08. That isn't happening here that I can see.

Need to focus on Nevada, we got a bunch of supporters coming from LA in the next week or so. Hope you're connected with and working with the campaign...they need all the help they can get!

I SHOULD be in Nevada about a week before the caucus.

 

[SurfsUp]

Texas has 155 delegates = THOSE ARE OURS!

California has 176!

 

[eleganz]

Texas has 155 delegates = THOSE ARE OURS!

California has 176!

Judging from the last TX poll, TX needs to get to work....

We can't rely on momentum to win...we need to actually work for it.


I hope everybody understands this.