What states can Paul win, realistically?

[realtonygoodwin]

I would like to see polling showing Paul can win in any of the upcoming states.

Thanks!

 

[flynn]

He is not going to win any state...until he changes his delivery and message to be more specific and does more events...He literally should be in flight to FL by the morning....if he is not and is going back to TX...WTF???

Florida is a winner takes all state with 50 delegates and also one of the most expensive to advertise in. The game is about delegates and not to spend most of the money to win a single state. Ron Paul is in it for the long haul, Newt and Santorum aren't even in the ballots in some of the states.

 

[tsai3904]

Washington. We lost the caucus in 08 by 3% and we are a lot more organized this year.

 

[bluesc]

If the campaign is smart, they will only make token stops in Florida. I'd say he has a 100% chance of winning one of the caucus states between now and Super Tuesday. Probably more. Most of those states haven't been polled in a while.

P.s. He most likely already won Iowa in delegate counts.

 

[ronpaulitician]

data
States where Paul received more than 10% of the votes in 2008.

Pennsylvania (16%)
Oregon (15%)
Idaho (24%)
New Mexico (14%)
South Dakota (17%)
Kansas (11%)
North Dakota (21%)
Montana (25%)
Minnesota (16%)
Alaska (17%)
Maine (18%)
Nevada (14%)

 

[69360]

Slight possibility of a caucus state or two.

 

[angelatc]

THey're not competing in FL. It's a waste of time and money. I agree with that decision. But if he can't win a single primary, it's going to be really hard to keep people motivated.

Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota - I think that he could win there if the campaign does its job. If they can pull that off, then New York and California could be in play as well.

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

 

[Tyler_Durden]

P.s. He most likely already won Iowa in delegate counts.

I concur

 

[Oddone]

The campaign looked forward to focus on Nevada, Minnesota, Louisiana, Maine, Colorado, Puerto Rico etc. We knew we could not take South Carolina or Florida. Heck we are the only campaign going for US Territories. Example, Puerto Rico in 2008 only had 208 votes at their caucuse which will give whoever wins 23 delegates. We have a group there now that is focusing on taking those votes, thats 23 delegates and so few people vote. Compare that to SC who will award 25 delegates today and will have hundreds of thousands vote.

(I guess I might as well copy paste this around lol)

 

[The Gold Standard]

It depends how much money he has to run ads in those states. He will get zero positive media, so advertising is critical.

 

[Indy Vidual]

Washington. We lost the caucus in 08 by 3% and we are a lot more organized this year.

Washington
Maybe Nevada
Ca, Several other Western States (ie Montana, Idaho, ect)
Arizona ?
Louisiana
......more?

 

[69360]

THey're not competing in FL. It's a waste of time and money. I agree with that decision. But if he can't win a single primary, it's going to be really hard to keep people motivated.

Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota - I think that he could win there if the campaign does its job. If they can pull that off, then New York and California could be in play as well.

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

I unfortunately agree. I don't want to fund a convention speech that nobody cares about or a platform plank nobody follows.

I'd rather see the money spent on a 3rd party run to possibly start a viable alternative in this country. I've always been GOP, but I am rather disgusted with them anymore.

 

[braane]

The campaign is really going to have to go for it all in Nevada, I would think. That's really all they have got. If they are serious about winning(which I have no reason to believe they aren't)... they are just going to have to pump all of their cash in and hope. If they win, then the funding will be there going forward and immediately following.

 

[bobbyw24]

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

That would be nice.

Who needs states when you got delegates

 

[seawolf]

February will be the key Month...we have to dramatically improve and WIN in order to have Momentum going into Super Tuesday March 6th....

If we don't you can already see the PANIC beginning to happen on the RP Forums tonight....it will only get much worse!!!

Plus, just look at Donations in the next week on the Ron Paul Daily Donation Tracker......I will be watching if we can top $100,000 on any one day in the next seven......if not then the RP Nation is in my opinion starting to hesitate, maybe begin to melt away or flat out give up!!!

I certainly hope not, but I am very worried after tonight and reading the threads.

 

[sailingaway]

The last poll I saw of South Dakota, Ron was leading. Others have mentioned some of his other strong ones. The thing is the states before play into it. But so far Ron has at least doubled - or tripled - his 2008 turn out. He was second in Nevada last time, and I don't see Romney losing that, but depending on the games played in Louisiana, he may win that. There are those who argue he really won last time, but I wasn't around until after that. He truly DID win Nevada, though, by delegates, the party just fled the state convention when all the votes started going his way and appointed delegates by conference call. The RNC said they were 'inept' and it is why Sue Lowden lost in 2010, but it didn't get Ron's delegates back.

Here's the thing, Iowa was a real disappointment BECAUSE it was a while after that until you get to the states Ron can outright win rather than pick up delegates. But with the change in rules for proportionate delegates, it isn't near decided for Ron. Others need wins earlier or they won't have funds to move on.

 

[sailingaway]

THey're not competing in FL. It's a waste of time and money. I agree with that decision. But if he can't win a single primary, it's going to be really hard to keep people motivated.

Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota - I think that he could win there if the campaign does its job. If they can pull that off, then New York and California could be in play as well.

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

I think they are playing to win and are depending on enthusiasm lasting until they get to his better states. Iowa was a blow, once it was close. But it isn't near over yet. Louisiana and Washington become important.

 

[Joseph]

Honestly Nevada February 4th. Minnesota and Colorado are on the 7th and they are possibilities. Washington is March 3rd and I'd say maybe there (although probably less chance then in Nevada) March 6th is Super Tuesday and if we get momentum from winning the above states we could get many of those, but our best shots are Idaho and Ohio and maybe North Dakota with the right circumstances. After that Louisiana is March 24th and we could do very well there. Texas is April 3rd and we might win Texas. April 24th is New York and Pennsylvania and we might pull New York if we have a lot of momentum by then and we could get Pennsylvania if Santorum is out by then. May 8th is North Carolina, I think we have a chance their. May 22 is Kentucky and thanks to Rand Paul we have a pretty good shot their as well. June 5th is California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota which we actually have a shot of winning all 5. The last state is Utah June 26th which we most likely won't win. These are really the only states I see us as having a shot at winning, we'd need a miracle and with the right momentum we could pick up a few more here or there but it really comes down to us. if we focus on these states and make sure we win them, then the momentum will carry through to the following states and we might just be able to pick up enough to delegates to win the nomination at the convention.

 

[Travlyr]

For starters, Iowa. If you look at the Iowa delegates, Ron Paul can win the majority of Iowa delegates.

 

[BrittanySligar]

We're NOT GOING TO WIN NEVADA! You people are living in a dream world. Romney got 40+% in 2008. take off the goddamn liberty googles! GET OFF THE INTERNET!