Walker surges to top in New Hampshire Poll

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Walker surges to top in New Hampshire Poll -- make that Polls

CONCORD - New Hampshire may have a new front-runner in the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
The first survey conducted in the first-in-the-nation primary state since Mitt Romney's exit from the 2016 White House race indicates that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads the pack of potential Republican presidential contenders.

According to an NH1 Pulse Poll released Wednesday, Walker has the backing of 21.2% of those who say they're likely to vote in next year's GOP presidential primary. The automated survey indicates Jeb Bush in second place, with 14.4% saying they'd support the former two-term Florida governor if the Feb. 9, 2016 primary was held now.

The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday, after Romney's announcement last Friday that he wouldn't make a third run for the White House.

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(Paul 3rd at 8.3%)

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NH Poll: Walker’s 23% leads crowded GOP field; Clinton dominates with 44%
February 5, 2015
The governor of Wisconsin is the clear choice for president of New Hampshire Republicans and former first lady Hillary R. Clinton leads other Granite State’s 2016 first-in-the-nation primary, according to the Feb. 2-3 Howie Carr/Gravis poll of 608 Republicans and 384 Democrats. The Margin of error 4% for republicans, Dems 5%.

“The poll ran right after Mitt Romney got out of the race, so what we are seeing it the move of Romney’s support to Gov. Scott K. Walker, who was the choice of 23 percent,” said Doug Kaplan, managing partner at Gravis Insights, the Florida-based company that conducted the poll.


It was expected that Romney’s support would go to former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, he said. “Jeb did well at 16 percent, but with 14 percent undecided, he still has not made his case.”

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How does this even happen? This reminds me of Bachmann/Gingrich/Santorum/Perry.
 
How does this even happen? This reminds me of Bachmann/Gingrich/Santorum/Perry.

It seems manufactured. Walker hasn't really been doing much of anything, but in the last week or so the Republican media's been pushing him hard, while simultaneously attacking Rand. I think the idea is to make Walker the "conservative alternative" to Bush. If he fails in that role (as he probably will) they'll run the same operation for someone else (not Rand of course). So, yes, it's looking a lot like 2012 Whac-A-Mole all over again. But Rand is much harder to ignore at this point than Ron was last time around, so don't get pessimistic just yet.
 
So, yes, it's looking a lot like 2012 Whac-A-Mole all over again. But Rand is much harder to ignore at this point than Ron was last time around, so don't get pessimistic just yet.

No on should be pessimistic at all at this point, things are only just getting started with this election cycle, prelude to the prelude (primary)...
 
Agree, didn't mean to suggest otherwise.

I feel you. Rand is in way better shape than Ron was going into 2012, completely obvious. Picking up major people in GOP circles for campaign staff should put him in hindsight as close to the same level as a Bush or Christie or Walker than any other "anti-establishment" candidate can get (Cruz, Carson, etc.).
It's so early that all of them can get in the race and even get primary votes, but once the first poll-throttled debate happens is when the race really begins, everything before is political sport. That's only because voters will hear of people but only see certain candidates engage in debate. It was only when Romney was in the polls that Rand sunken to a point of potentially being throttled in a debate. And now with Romney out...even more interesting this cycle becomes.
 
"The survey indicates a divide between registered Republicans and undeclared, or independents, who say they'll vote in the GOP primary. Walker's at 22.7% and Bush is at 15.6% among registered Republicans questioned. But among undeclared voters, Paul's on top at 16.9%, followed by Walker at 14.8% and Bush at 9.5%."

Like others have said, it's early yet. Paul has a decent shot at winning both IA and NH. If that happens, he can go all the way. With Romney out of the game, I think political analysts would regard Paul as the NH favorite regardless of this early poll.
 
It seems manufactured. Walker hasn't really been doing much of anything, but in the last week or so the Republican media's been pushing him hard, while simultaneously attacking Rand. I think the idea is to make Walker the "conservative alternative" to Bush. If he fails in that role (as he probably will) they'll run the same operation for someone else (not Rand of course). So, yes, it's looking a lot like 2012 Whac-A-Mole all over again. But Rand is much harder to ignore at this point than Ron was last time around, so don't get pessimistic just yet.



You used to be able to do a Google Trend comparison to check the News coverage correlation with actual web searches. If the candidate was a media creation you could tell. Here...





I tried to use Google Trends but the format has changed and I can't get the news comparison. Someone more capable than me want to give it a try?
 
Walker just changed his position on Common Core. While he used to support it, he is now against it. That should help him.

However, most people think he is a big RTW supporter. Actually, he has warned against bringing up the issue in WI. He doesn't want to act on it. If people find out he is against RTW before he changes his mind, that will hurt him. Almost all conservative Republicans support RTW, disagreeing with Walker on the issue.
 
"But among undeclared voters, Paul's on top at 16.9%,"

Like others have said, it's early yet. Paul has a decent shot at winning both IA and NH. If that happens, he can go all the way. With Romney out of the game, I think political analysts would regard Paul as the NH favorite regardless of this early poll.

If Rand takes both IA and NH it will become a shit show lmao.
 
Walker just changed his position on Common Core. While he used to support it, he is now against it. That should help him.

However, most people think he is a big RTW supporter. Actually, he has warned against bringing up the issue in WI. He doesn't want to act on it. If people find out he is against RTW before he changes his mind, that will hurt him. Almost all conservative Republicans support RTW, disagreeing with Walker on the issue.

Ah, took me a couple minutes, RTW = right to work. got a citation that he is against it? we should document it asap
 
Ah, took me a couple minutes, RTW = right to work. got a citation that he is against it? we should document it asap

Walker says right-to-work battle would be distraction
By Don Walker of the Journal Sentinel
Dec. 12, 2012
http://www.jsonline.com/news/wiscon...registration-too-early-i780lu5-183182971.html

Scott Walker: No need to pursue 'right to work' in Wisconsin
By Sean Higgins | November 22, 2013 | 12:00 am
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/s...ue-right-to-work-in-wisconsin/article/2539643

Walker: Right-to-work law would be distraction
Associated Press 4:43 p.m. CST December 3, 2014
http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com...ht-to-work-law-would-be-distraction/19858055/
 
It seems like they under sampled independent voters to me. Independent voters will make up a huge chuck of the NH electorate in the GOP primary, especially since it's likely that there will basically be no race on the Democratic side.
 
For Walker to have somehow surged to be polling in the twenties is sort of odd to me, especially since almost half NH Republicans weren't even sure on him back in January. It just seems like that whenever the media throws a name out, that's where people suddenly begin to drift to. Meh, I have confidence that Rand will pull up in NH eventually. Walker is more of a momentary person for now. Soon as the media leaves him out, he'll drop down a lot.
 
Maybe temporary, but not a fluke:


NH Poll: Walker’s 23% leads crowded GOP field; Clinton dominates with 44%
February 5, 2015
The governor of Wisconsin is the clear choice for president of New Hampshire Republicans and former first lady Hillary R. Clinton leads other Granite State’s 2016 first-in-the-nation primary, according to the Feb. 2-3 Howie Carr/Gravis poll of 608 Republicans and 384 Democrats. The Margin of error 4% for republicans, Dems 5%.

“The poll ran right after Mitt Romney got out of the race, so what we are seeing it the move of Romney’s support to Gov. Scott K. Walker, who was the choice of 23 percent,” said Doug Kaplan, managing partner at Gravis Insights, the Florida-based company that conducted the poll.


It was expected that Romney’s support would go to former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, he said. “Jeb did well at 16 percent, but with 14 percent undecided, he still has not made his case.”

Republican-Primary.png


full story
 
Does anyone else notice that walker looks drunk in most of his photos?? Lol
 
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