Trump’s path to Re-election?

[William Tell]

I think Biden's problem might actually be in the general election. I'm not sure he would really gather more undecided voters, and the key Democrat constituencies outside the donor class have nothing in common with him. Trump would drive a 6 inch iron wedge between Biden and the leftist base, and brutally drive up his negatives with women. Trump would flip the script when it comes to who is considered the most out of touch boorish old man. Low turnout would mean Trump wins again. Unless things have changed in the states Trump flipped in '16. I think Biden would get slaughtered.

 

[Schifference]

If I rolled out a set of wrenches on the floor from 1/4 to 1" I would say Trump is currently , still the 9 /16 .

In that scenario would not 5/8 be halfway between .25 and 1?

 

[EBounding]

If the economy is more or less the same, Trump will win regardless of any scandals. Probably won't win Michigan though.

 

[gaazn]

Bernie's the only one with a chance to beat Trump. The others including Biden look 2nd, 3rd rate. No way Elizabeth Warren can get more electoral votes than Michelle Obama, so why is she even running. So chances of Trump re-election very good, especially if Dems spend a bunch of time and money to try to chase Arizona and N Carolina again.

 

[Superfluous Man]

If the economy is more or less the same, Trump will win regardless of any scandals. Probably won't win Michigan though.

Interesting. Why not?

If he loses Michigan, then he'd likely lose Wisconsin too. That would put him right on the brink without picking up any states Hillary won. He would also not be able to afford losing Florida, Pennsylvania, or pretty much any other states he won at all.

 

[juleswin]

Wouldn't the large number of stupid people be voting for Bernie?

That is what you would think but I think Trump attracts a certain level of stupid that should give Bernie's people a run for their money. That is why I think he stilll has a chance.

 

[Anti Globalist]

My brother keeps telling me that if Biden ends up the nominee Trump will just bring up the fact that hes a rapist and a pedophile. Trump certainly isn't going to bring any of that up. Its one of those things where Trump will let the people of the internet attack Biden on that.

 

[kahless]

My brother keeps telling me that if Biden ends up the nominee Trump will just bring up the fact that hes a rapist and a pedophile. Trump certainly isn't going to bring any of that up. Its one of those things where Trump will let the people of the internet attack Biden on that.

Biden would be the oldest commander in chief ever to take office if elected at age 78. Considering how Dems feel about old white people I think that would be a factor in denying him the Democratic primary.

 

[Philhelm]

I think that Trump will be re-elected. That said, anything is possible, especially with the likelihood of rampant voter and election fraud.

The Democrats have become absolutely insane, and their early list of candidates is a god-tier shit show that even the circle-jerk Republicans could never hope to match. Even Paul Ryan giving an HJ to Mitt Romney on the White House lawn would be more dignified. By all rights, Trump should cream them, but the Democrats are using their suck-fest intersectionality coalition bullshit to the max.

 

[PAF]

I haven't voted since '12 and don't really care who wins anymore. They're all the same under this system and the people support it. Republicans are identical to Democrats with different color sprinkles on top.

I had a blast in '12 all the way to Tampa, so maybe for sh|ts and grins I'll get behind Kokesh this run.

 

[enhanced_deficit]

Would depend on Dems nomination and Economy to a large extent ( if went into recessionary mode) but on its own chances have been slimming even if MAGA has been reaching out to left wing/libs to pad his poll numbers lately. There are spikes of seasonal flavorability type attractions but no consistent message. As is, I fear GOP-Adelson could face a complete demolition in next 1-2 cycles (if it survived first term, in second term its demise might not be too different from GOP-Bush-Cheney demise that manifested with the emergence of reactive 'Barack Hussein Obama' phenomenon). MAGA's is also getting bit too close to same ol same Iraq war blunder neocons although I'm not convinced its a fake frontgroup as some on Right have been alleging. That said, MAGA is known to get out of tough situations and would not be easy for Dems to take him down with a so so opponent.



Related

Potential GOP challenger calls Trump's 2020 chances 'weak'
February 19, 2019

Ann Coulter: Trump Failing. Don't ask me to lie about it

Trump may have to pull some real populist stunts to even have a chance but again the dems could always self-sabotage like they have in the past.. I just feel like if trump had ran against anyone other than the most hated and unlikeable Democrat in 2016 he may have lost.. is it different now? Nobody in the running is as universally despised as Hillary Clinton and they will have a huge advantage

Populist moves of late are pretty bold though.

Trump administration launches global effort to end criminalization of homosexuality

Trump administration launches global effort to end AIDS

 

[oyarde]

In that scenario would not 5/8 be halfway between .25 and 1?

Better than 1/2 is all it takes to win

 

[oyarde]

Interesting. Why not?

If he loses Michigan, then he'd likely lose Wisconsin too. That would put him right on the brink without picking up any states Hillary won. He would also not be able to afford losing Florida, Pennsylvania, or pretty much any other states he won at all.

Yeah he pretty much needs to win what he did last and still can once the dems nominate Mao .

 

[Anti Globalist]

Bloomberg probably has the best chance of beating Trump. He's definitely rich enough and famous enough. Only thing he lacks is a alpha male personality and he might be a victim of rigged primaries. Plus theres also the fact that hes one of the top 10 richest people in the world. People will look at that and see it as a giant red flag.

 

[Stratovarious]

Biden would be the oldest commander in chief ever to take office if elected at age 78. Considering how Dems feel about old white people I think that would be a factor in denying him the Democratic primary.

Biden is creepy , he's not going anywhere/

 

[Stratovarious]

...



Populist moves of late are pretty bold though.

Trump administration launches global effort to end criminalization of homosexuality

Trump administration launches global effort to end AIDS

I think we may agree that this /\ /\ /\

... is the wrong path (the back pedals, the Globalism).


Trump has done some cool things for us, but he needs to accomplish one
more thing, its not the wall , it needs to be something significant.

 

[Peace Piper]

Tulsi who? You answered your own complaint above. Obviously I know who she is, but the mainstream media has blacked her out, and if they do mention her, it’s only to attack her. We’ll see if she gains any traction in the debates, but let me predict this right now: there will be main Democrat debates, and there will be the “children’s table”. She will be at the Dems children’s table debate. They might even televise it, at a less than prime time.

Trump Who?

Everyone (including the Libertarian basher Rand Paul) said Trump didn't have a chance. But EVERYONE WAS WRONG.

Seems you and many, many others have literally given up on the ~50% of the people in the US that haven't voted in years. You pretend they don't exist.

Now a Democrat could take on most of those positions, but they won’t. They are too caught up in the SJW mentality which means they must agree with open borders and importing as many people as possible. They will never get back the real, working, blue dog Democrat voters with that.

I expected better from this forum. This place was an oasis in a desert of war and neocons back in 2007-2010. Some of the brightest people (when it comes to politics) from around the world debated real issues and how to actually change things.

Now, for the most part, it's just a republican circle jerk, bashing everyone and everything that doesn't fit into the fully corrupt and sold out "R" hole. I even saw a post that was saying that it would be great to end the wars but that might cost some jobs. Imagine that- Americans so utterly corrupted that they think they need to kill other people to provide jobs. Sickening, disgusting and despicable.

It's a terrible disappointment, but after Rand endorsed Romney and his dad lied to his faithful supporters to keep the money flowing in, it doesn't really matter anymore. The dream is not dead. we'll just re-group somewhere else.

And until someone better comes along, I'm helping to elect the ONE and ONLY PERSON THAT IS CAMPAIGNING TO END THESE ILLEGAL AND IMMORAL WARS THAT HAVE BLED THE NATION DRY. Why aren't more people protesting the squandering of the treasury? Why is Tulsi the ONLY ONE that is even talking about it. Americans have become used to a constant state of war.

The Rebels that beat the world's biggest superpower with muskets and strategy in the late 1700's have become slaves. And much of it happened on the watch of people reading this. Shame on them and their rogue nation that doesn't know how to do anything at all anymore but bomb and invade other lands, and engage in petty bickering among their sorry, deluded, arrogant, spoiled selves.

 

[PAF]

Trump Who?

Everyone (including the Libertarian basher Rand Paul) said Trump didn't have a chance. But EVERYONE WAS WRONG.

Seems you and many, many others have literally given up on the ~50% of the people in the US that haven't voted in years. You pretend they don't exist.



I expected better from this forum. This place was an oasis in a desert of war and neocons back in 2007-2010. Some of the brightest people (when it comes to politics) from around the world debated real issues and how to actually change things.

Now, for the most part, it's just a republican circle jerk, bashing everyone and everything that doesn't fit into the fully corrupt and sold out "R" hole. I even saw a post that was saying that it would be great to end the wars but that might cost some jobs. Imagine that- Americans so utterly corrupted that they think they need to kill other people to provide jobs. Sickening, disgusting and despicable.

It's a terrible disappointment, but after Rand endorsed Romney and his dad lied to his faithful supporters to keep the money flowing in, it doesn't really matter anymore. The dream is not dead. we'll just re-group somewhere else.

And until someone better comes along, I'm helping to elect the ONE and ONLY PERSON THAT IS CAMPAIGNING TO END THESE ILLEGAL AND IMMORAL WARS THAT HAVE BLED THE NATION DRY. Why aren't more people protesting the squandering of the treasury? Why is Tulsi the ONLY ONE that is even talking about it. Americans have become used to a constant state of war.

The Rebels that beat the world's biggest superpower with muskets and strategy in the late 1700's have become slaves. And much of it happened on the watch of people reading this. Shame on them and their rogue nation that doesn't know how to do anything at all anymore but bomb and invade other lands, and engage in petty bickering among their sorry, deluded, arrogant, spoiled selves.

I was with you up until 2 points:

1. RP didn't lie to anybody. He stated his desire was to reach the hearts and minds of the American people and still continues to this day, not only here, but in Mexico.

2. I am not clear... are you supporting Tulsi... for president???

 

[enhanced_deficit]

In the absence of a coherent and clear message for 2020, MAGA's win path is getting narrower by the day lately despite some recent pivots towards moderate center/globalism/liberal agenda to attract dem/hispanic/monitory voters.

GOP-Adelson facing defections, revolts as MAGA makes a "low energy" push on Wall funding

 

[Pauls' Revere]

The victor will be the less stupid of two choices, elected by the stupid majority.