Tipping Point

[Article V]

would it make sense for the campaign, or a superpac, to simply build off this tipping point meme?

Something like:

NEVADA: Show America what liberty really means! Vote Ron Paul. Win Nevada, Win the Presidency!

No, because we're not absolutists. It's not about Nevada. We've just got to keep plugging away and keep standing strong. Our numbers are increasing. Exponential growth WILL happen, but we can't pinpoint exactly when the message will catch; perhaps it will be Nevada, perhaps it will be mid-February, perhaps it will be later. It'll happen, just stand strong.

 

[Article V]

We should try to win CPAC 2012 though. It's the last big event during an empty February. If we win Nevada and CPAC, we garner a lot of press that can't be dismissed till March when more states come into the mix.

Nevada and CPAC. Plan accordingly.

 

[millercards]

I like both sides of thinking.... but I just can't imagine what momentum would come from taking 1st in a state soon.

Especially if it's a state before Super Tuesday. If we win our first state there, the media could let it go.

If we win one before when it's the highlight of the political news world, it will be impossible to ignore us. Even if we're totally blown off like we should expect to be, outsiders would see that 1st place finish and take notice.

 

[european]

Nice. These forums are awesome.

Sorry to repost what you did. Yours was great, mine was before bed ramblings.

I did really start the theory in my head... I had a lot of stuff going around, nothing like the law stated above, but really on the same path towards it. Blew my mind when I saw your graph, I felt like I pictured it before hand.

Exponential growth seems to be the main ingredient/symptom/factor/result/etc.

edit: reply to European... keep hitting 'reply' instead of 'reply with quote'

haha no problem, and welcome to the Ron Paul Forums. I'm very happy to see new people joining in. This is a marvelous place to be indeed. The grassroots central is good for keeping up with the latest news, and the other forums are good for background or specific information.
And the post I made was a reply in some other thread, so it makes sense you didnt see it. And reposting is no problem at all. I'm happy to contribute to this fellowship that we all are in. And i'm gonna give you +rep for this thread.

To add some information to my former post.

Focussing in on the Republican voters: we are at that 16% level. And the premise is that Ron Paul wins if he gets 50% +1 of the votes. (in case of a 2-men race).

Having the first 16% means you have most of the people who behave sceptic (in a positive way) and want to get information and decide for themselves what the outcome should be: they want to make up their own mind. This is what these people are like and for them it makes a lot of sense to accept Ron Paul. These are also the people who want to educate themselves. And this is perfectly in line with the people who go on the internet and do research themselves. So it really fits the profile.

The early marjority has another set of personal wishes. One of them being less motivated to do a lot of research themselves. The do have a lot of social contacts and are willing to listen to their network (whether it be friends, family, email, tv, etc). They are open minded and are willing to try something new, which has already prooved itself (to others). So they want positive feedback on the message. This means what are the solutions?

We can point out the problem: huge debt and give them 2 scenario's: #1Newt/Rick/Mitt or #2Ron and take the time to explain it and answer their questions.
Also about foreign policy #1Newt/Rick/Mitt or #2Ron and do just the same. I once saw a comparisonmatrix on this forums and that could be a good solution. Maybe like: protect the borders in Germany or the borders between the US and Mexico? Where do you want us to spend this money? The answer ofcourse is in the US, and if it makes sense to you it makes sense to them!

Or just give them a picture and ask on which military bases in Germany they want to spend money and which German regions they want to stimulate the economy. For having those soldiers there, means they spend their money there, thus stimulating the economy. I have seen myself closing one of the bases nearby and the economy crumbled, so it is true that having a base is good for the local economy and the local German cities and states want to keep them there for providing work to the locals. And also let them pick which ones should be closed so the military can be transfered to the US and spend their income back at home to stimulate the American economy.
Here is a picture I found on wikipedia:

There are about 53,000 American military in Germany. You can do the math how much they spend there.

For a list of countries you can check it out here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_deployments

And above all: do not go into defense while talking to the early majority. If they don't agree, ask them why not, and also what candidate has an alternative. And discuss on the bad sides of that other candidate (which is most likely spending the US into bankruptcy). Their concerns are real, discover them, know they are important and show the disadvantages of the other candidates and the positives of Ron Paul. Give the message the credibility it has and deserves.

Since this is politics and not your average new product:
Never forget that Ron Paul is going to cut 1 trillion dollar! That is a lot of money that stops comming out of your taxpaying pockets (or stops being borrowed from China), and a lot of people and companies will loose a lot of income because of that. And they don't want to loose their piece of the pie, so they will do all they can to discredit Paul to stop him. And also the major news networks know they earn a lot when they cover wars. People tune in to see what is happening, thus having a lot of viewers, thus making their commerce breaks more watched, thus selling the commercebreak minutes for more money per second. It is part of their businesmodel, and as a journalist once said: half of the pressroom will loose their job when Paul becomes President, so there might be a conflict of interest. </end rant>

 

[cindy25]

read or listen to the Tipping Point; you will be convinced that if Ron wins Nevada he can start measuring the drapes in the White House.

Mitt loses NV and he is finished. Newt vs Ron one on one is no problem. the establishment knows Newt would lose in a landslide, and they would rather keep their house and senate with a President Paul (who they will assume they can tame)

 

[InTradePro]

Tipping Point is near. I think it will shock some people here (in a good way), when it takes off.

The negative battle of Romney-Gringrich will help Dr Paul nationally because it will become easier to reinforce the negatives of other candidates.

 

[Liberty74]

There needs to be some type of unforeseen event to happen before people become awake and join us. This theory that people are sitting on the side in mass for Paul is a myth. He has very high unfavorables due to the talk radio damage done about his foreign policy. Ron needs to address this before any tipping point can occur.

 

[SilentBull]

The Ron Paul Explosion, explained by the law of diffusion of innovation.

 

[mosquitobite]

A normally rabid anti-Paul lady tried to paint RP's FP is cRaZy stance last night. (we declared war on Iran, they're responding)
I responded:

If Russia sanctioned us and blocked imports from us, would we consider that an act of war?

Or, another way of looking at it, if China put a war ship in the Gulf of Mexico "just to protect their interests (in our debt we owe them)" would we consider THAT an act of war?

Why is it OK, because it's the USA doing it?

And another thing a friend mentioned today... if we didn't have bases all over Europe and elsewhere to help sovereign nations defend themselves... would they be able to afford their socialistic health care programs? (If they had to spend money for their own defense that is?)

Normally she uses ad-hominem attacks and just sticks with the HA! RP is cRaZy! stance. But last night?

I agree, we need to get out of many nations, but no, not the ones that aren't prepared to stablilize themselves since they will fall to our enemies. Yeah, I get what you are saying.

I had to pick my jaw up off the floor. Because...um yeah... tipping point!

 

[mosquitobite]

Or just give them a picture and ask on which military bases in Germany they want to spend money and which German regions they want to stimulate the economy. For having those soldiers there, means they spend their money there, thus stimulating the economy. I have seen myself closing one of the bases nearby and the economy crumbled, so it is true that having a base is good for the local economy and the local German cities and states want to keep them there for providing work to the locals. And also let them pick which ones should be closed so the military can be transfered to the US and spend their income back at home to stimulate the American economy.

There are about 53,000 American military in Germany. You can do the math how much they spend there.

For a list of countries you can check it out here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_deployments

And above all: do not go into defense while talking to the early majority. If they don't agree, ask them why not, and also what candidate has an alternative. And discuss on the bad sides of that other candidate (which is most likely spending the US into bankruptcy). Their concerns are real, discover them, know they are important and show the disadvantages of the other candidates and the positives of Ron Paul. Give the message the credibility it has and deserves.

Since this is politics and not your average new product:
Never forget that Ron Paul is going to cut 1 trillion dollar! That is a lot of money that stops comming out of your taxpaying pockets (or stops being borrowed from China), and a lot of people and companies will loose a lot of income because of that. And they don't want to loose their piece of the pie, so they will do all they can to discredit Paul to stop him. And also the major news networks know they earn a lot when they cover wars. People tune in to see what is happening, thus having a lot of viewers, thus making their commerce breaks more watched, thus selling the commercebreak minutes for more money per second. It is part of their businesmodel, and as a journalist once said: half of the pressroom will loose their job when Paul becomes President, so there might be a conflict of interest. </end rant>

Now, add in BRAC
http://www.brac.gov/

Closing bases AT HOME, and instead supplementing other nation's defense...

 

[SaulPaulinsky]

lol, I just made a post on this topic. Let me quote myself
And the tipping point is much lower then 30% of the republican voters. The tipping point has been investigated a lot already and it more at the 16%. The reasoning is it reflects the way people think and make judgements. And it appears to be this 16%. That is a natural ceiling that has to be breached. And we went through that ceiling already which prooves there is a big momentum for us right now. But it also shows that the way the message is being put foreward has to be altered a bit. It should be tweaked in a way that the new target audience understands and accepts it. One of which is making a case that RP is electable and for that I think he has to become more defiant (but I guess this part is open for debat).



edit:
A meme (play /ˈmiːm/[1]) is "an idea, behavior or style that spreads from person to person within a culture."[2] A meme acts as a unit for carrying cultural ideas, symbols or practices, which can be transmitted from one mind to another through writing, speech, gestures, rituals or other imitable phenomena
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme
And this is why it the Paul campaign is also called the Revolution, because it is a different meme that is put foreward.

Could you please explain "social proof" in this context?

 

[SaulPaulinsky]

We should try to win CPAC 2012 though. It's the last big event during an empty February. If we win Nevada and CPAC, we garner a lot of press that can't be dismissed till March when more states come into the mix.

Nevada and CPAC. Plan accordingly.

IMO Minnesota is a better bet than Nevada. Lot of Mormons in Nevada and Romney got over 50% last time. Not saying it can't be won.

 

[UK4Paul]

Could you please explain "social proof" in this context?

People tend to follow others, look around to see what others are doing before doing something, etc.

If they see enough people support Ron Paul, social proof works our favour. They feel it becomes socially acceptable to support Ron Paul.

Read Cialdini's "Influence". He came up with the concept of "social proof" (slightly earlier than the seduction guys )

 

[mosquitobite]

People tend to follow others, look around to see what others are doing before doing something, etc.

If they see enough people support Ron Paul, social proof works our favour. They feel it becomes socially acceptable to support Ron Paul.

Read Cialdini's "Influence". He came up with the concept of "social proof" (slightly earlier than the seduction guys )

Agree. In the states we hope to win, I hope every Ron Paul supporter is wearing RP gear, doing sign waves, etc - DAILY!

 

[cindy25]

Tipping Point is near. I think it will shock some people here (in a good way), when it takes off.

The negative battle of Romney-Gringrich will help Dr Paul nationally because it will become easier to reinforce the negatives of other candidates.

it will even shock Dr Paul. just think of color TVs and cell phones; all of a sudden everyone had one. there was no event, tipping points are a natural progression, and at some point they tip

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

IMO Minnesota is a better bet than Nevada. Lot of Mormons in Nevada and Romney got over 50% last time. Not saying it can't be won.

Paul got 13% last time around in Nevada, which is one of the better showings... If he'd double that, 26%, triple it 39%.

Mitt was just over 50% last time around, but he's only doing 30% right now (a month ago or so in the polls? Old polling data though.)... This is interesting, and it's a caucus.

 

[MsDoodahs]

read or listen to the Tipping Point; you will be convinced that if Ron wins Nevada he can start measuring the drapes in the White House.

Mitt loses NV and he is finished. Newt vs Ron one on one is no problem. the establishment knows Newt would lose in a landslide, and they would rather keep their house and senate with a President Paul (who they will assume they can tame)

don't say that I have always believed that is a jinx phrase.

 

[cheapseats]

At some point though... you would have to think.... there will be a TIPPING POINT.

Absolutely.

TIPPING POINTS go one way, or the other.

At some point, people will see the percentages, start believing Paul has a chance, and they'll join the good fight.
The climb will then gain momentum (grassrooted converts + tipping point converts).

More people will join as our vote totals grow.

The "great" silent fearful majority of folks ARE Bandwagon People, no doubt about that.

But HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AFTER RESISTANCE HAS ASSEMBLED CRITICAL MASS puts the cart before the horse.

Egyptians had a notion for how things would play out once they assembled a Critical Mass. Obama had a notion for how things would play out once he assembled a Critical Mass. Mike Tyson: "Everyone has a plan, til they get punched in the face."

At some point, this momentum could tip....

Or fizzle.

...and the votes would start to Pour in. If and once we find that point, I think it's over, we win.

Sounds good. Easy, too.

Thoughts on this?

I do NOT mean to get in your grill specifically. It's "just" that y'all are running SEVEN TO TEN PAGES of "new" material per DAY and it wastes a lot of TIME (what I apprehend to be the most valuable of MY scarce resources) to re-find Connecting Dots.

YES, regarding the significance of momentum. Ron Paul skipping UN-WINNABLE CONTESTS WITH WINNER-TAKE-ALL DELEGATES does not mean his Adoring Fans should skip the state. On the contrary. TIRELESS UNEQUIVOCAL BOOTS-ON-THE-GROUND SUPPORT is one of his strongest suits.

How do we get to the Tipping Point?

Baby Boomers, Women and Seniors.

In a Venn Diagram, those intersect at MIDDLE-AGED WOMEN.

Seniors may be impossible...but that is largely because their PEER is an inferior speaker who is not redeemed by innately winsome appearance or mannerisms. No matter, they are stuck in their ways AND croaking by the day. Stubborn & self-righteous Seniors should MOTIVATE Baby Boomers & Youth, who are paying for heroic medical procedures for Octogenarians.

That leaves Baby Boomers & Women.

No one can win without 'em. There are too damn many of us, lol.

 

[otherone]

I read some time ago that the percentage needed for change is 20%. The Revolutionary War was supported by only 20% of the population, with the 'status quo' simply not caring/afraid of authority/think about the children/sheeple. People don't change...look at the Liberty Movement from 2007 to now...the status quo is malleable, not stubborn.

 

[cheapseats]

...the status quo is malleable, not stubborn.

The Status Quo is malleable, not stubborn ON WHAT PLANET?

The PEOPLE who make discussion of the Status Quo relevant, indeed possible, are VERY stubborn.