Tipping Point

[millercards]

Saw a young woman say after the debate that she thought Ron Paul was the best one up there because he was straight forward with his answer and the other guys seemed to be just attacking each other.

I think this is becoming more and more common among regular people. (Not counting the converted Paullites)

I think there is also a large mass of people that still are hesitant because we seem 'kooky' or whatever word the media feeds them. It seems there are many hesitant to support Paul because of his unelectability propaganda.

At some point though... you would have to think.... there will be a TIPPING POINT.

At some point, people will see the percentages, start believing Paul has a chance, and they'll join the good fight.

The climb will then gain momentum (grassrooted converts + tipping point converts).

More people will join as our vote totals grow.

At some point, this momentum could tip.... and the votes would start to Pour in. If and once we find that point, I think it's over, we win.

Thoughts on this? How do we get to the Tipping Point? What percentage of votes do we need? 30+ in 2 consecutive states?

 

[cindy25]

1 win

 

[Article V]

Science says if 15% of a population remain unshakeable in their belief, it causes a groundswell that allows the idea to flourish at an exponential rate.

So I'd say the tipping point would be regularly polling over 15% in the national Real Clear Politics average. We're close to getting over 15% for the first time there, but who knows what percentage of that 15% is unshakeable. That's why we need to be steadily over 15%.

Newt has done it, Romney has done it, Santorum has not, Ron Paul has not. If we can hit it steadily before Santorum, we have a real path to victory. If not, it will become that much harder because we'll have one more candidate that people view as realistic competing in the mix.

 

[millercards]

1 win, that'd be nice.

I think you could be right. If we can take first in a state soon, we should get votes from people that now see his electability, people that see the first and decide to finally check him out and have their Ron Paul Moment, and even some bandwagon jumpers.

You're right, that would be huge.

Let's get Nevada!

 

[hueylong]

16.5% nationally. according to mosely's law, 16.5% is the point in which you start moving up the curve on the diffusion of innovation.

we will need to adjust our messaging slightly at that point to account for the fact that we are winning.

 

[millercards]

That's exactly what was going on in my head. That groundswell that just keeps gaining momentum and energy, building off itself.

In my head it sounded like a Tipping Point.

 

[TER]

Nevada FTW!

 

[european]

lol, I just made a post on this topic. Let me quote myself
And the tipping point is much lower then 30% of the republican voters. The tipping point has been investigated a lot already and it more at the 16%. The reasoning is it reflects the way people think and make judgements. And it appears to be this 16%. That is a natural ceiling that has to be breached. And we went through that ceiling already which prooves there is a big momentum for us right now. But it also shows that the way the message is being put foreward has to be altered a bit. It should be tweaked in a way that the new target audience understands and accepts it. One of which is making a case that RP is electable and for that I think he has to become more defiant (but I guess this part is open for debat).

Changing a meme is hard, it takes time and dedication and any growth this movement makes due to this electoral process is a win. That's why dr Paul always wins. And I really hope dr Paul wins because the meme suddenly goes exponential, this might just happen. We have reached the tipping point of 16% so all is possible. And time will tell if we make it this election or next election. The more effort is made, the bigger the odds it will happen this election cycle.

If one says that the 2007 election started with the innovators (technologists), in the last 4 years we got the early adopters (visionaries) in. And now we need to get the pragmatics in to get the early majority. And that it is all we need to get to win this republican election. Then the conservatives will join in, as will the sceptics. And from the independent and democratic side we will get the innovators as well as a big portion of the early adopters and you see them voting RP already.

This is also why I do think dr Paul will gain a lot if he makes slight adjustments to his style right now. As do we the grassroots. We got the innovaters and early adopters, now we have to focus on the early majority.

edit:
A meme (play /ˈmiːm/[1]) is "an idea, behavior or style that spreads from person to person within a culture."[2] A meme acts as a unit for carrying cultural ideas, symbols or practices, which can be transmitted from one mind to another through writing, speech, gestures, rituals or other imitable phenomena
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme
And this is why it the Paul campaign is also called the Revolution, because it is a different meme that is put foreward.

 

[Kandilynn]

I think the people in Nevada need to be showing people how Ron Paul is electable. If he wins Nevada, no one can say he's not going to win. It's early enough in the process that it will give the campaign huge forward momentum going into Super Tuesday, and he will start to really collect delegates.

 

[millercards]

Nice. These forums are awesome.

Sorry to repost what you did. Yours was great, mine was before bed ramblings.

I did really start the theory in my head... I had a lot of stuff going around, nothing like the law stated above, but really on the same path towards it. Blew my mind when I saw your graph, I felt like I pictured it before hand.

Exponential growth seems to be the main ingredient/symptom/factor/result/etc.

edit: reply to European... keep hitting 'reply' instead of 'reply with quote'

 

[JJ2]

1 win

That's exactly what I was going to say.

Let's win Nevada!!!

 

[Article V]

We've risen to a steady 14% nationally, while Santorum is dropping from his temporary small surge. As long as Newt and Romney whop Santorum in Florida, he may likely be finished (though he might not realize it at first). Simultaneously, we'll have to keep steadily inching upward, which is possible even with a last place finish in Florida b/c the campaign is managing expectations by publicly not competing there and looking ahead to the caucuses.

 

[millercards]

Suppose someone with a little more rep than me should start a thread titled:

Speculation: Win Nevada, and we just might win the whole thing.

Might help us all rally around the Nevada efforts.

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

itll be liek zombies.. growth is exponential. quarantine will be impossible soon.

 

[RonPaulMyPresident]

Winning Nevada will boost our confidence, and thats what all Ron Paul supporters need right now.

I have faith. People of Nevada love their freedom and liberties. We have to spread the message of Ron Paul in that state.

 

[Slobodan]

I have to be honest I don't think RP will win the nomination but we have to go all in because of the future, RP has shown the way to many of us, I had the belief before I heard of him 4 years ago, but he cemented that I was right in my belief and also he showed that there are millions like me. What I think will happen after this probably fails (I hope I'm wrong) is the the there will be more economic and political failure in the years to come and then hundreds (if not thousands) of pro-liberty candidates will run (and many win) office. I registered republican so I can vote in Florida on Jan 31st for Dr. Paul but it's annoying how they ignore him here on Tampa Bay news if it's not something bad the crony media can say. It's just horrible.

But one thing is true Dr. Paul has shown the way its on us now to fight long term for the cause there is no easy victory here and we have to stay the course. I'm all in, and I have a feeling 4 or 8 years from now we will double or triple our pro-liberty base, that's my prediction! One thing is sure, the half a dozen countries I lived in, only USA has a chance for real liberty the others don't but will if we can win here they will copy us, but they will not be first i'm sure of it. So we have to fight for liberty with all our energy its' worth it, I just don't want to think where US is heading if this keep moving to the left un-opposed.

 

[RonPaulMyPresident]

I have to be honest I don't think RP will win the nomination but we have to go all in because of the future, RP has shown the way to many of us, I had the belief before I heard of him 4 years ago, but he cemented that I was right in my belief and also he showed that there are millions like me. What I think will happen after this probably fails (I hope I'm wrong) is the the there will be more economic and political failure in the years to come and then hundreds (if not thousands) of pro-liberty candidates will run (and many win) office. I registered republican so I can vote in Florida on Jan 31st for Dr. Paul but it's annoying how they ignore him here on Tampa Bay news if it's not something bad the crony media can say. It's just horrible.

But one thing is true Dr. Paul has shown the way its on us now to fight long term for the cause there is no easy victory here and we have to stay the course. I'm all in, and I have a feeling 4 or 8 years from now we will double or triple our pro-liberty base, that's my prediction! One thing is sure, the half a dozen countries I lived in, only USA has a chance for real liberty the others don't but will if we can win here they will copy us, but they will not be first i'm sure of it. So we have to fight for liberty with all our energy its' worth it, I just don't want to think where US is heading if this keep moving to the left un-opposed.

Get rid of the negative energy and dont share your negative energy with others. The race has just started.

Watch my video

 

[affa]

would it make sense for the campaign, or a superpac, to simply build off this tipping point meme?

Something like:

NEVADA: Show America what liberty really means! Vote Ron Paul. Win Nevada, Win the Presidency!

 

[Article V]

Get rid of the negative energy and dont share your negative energy with others. The race has just started.

^^This. It's the same advice Sam Adams used to give the original revolutionaries who founded this nation: always keep a positive, upbeat, winning attitude; never let anyone see you doubt and question your ability to succeed, because success is the only option and we must not sew seeds of doubt.

Hold your ground, freedom fighters. More will join soon if we stand strong and unshakeable.

 

[millercards]

would it make sense for the campaign, or a superpac, to simply build off this tipping point meme?

Something like:

NEVADA: Show America what liberty really means! Vote Ron Paul. Win Nevada, Win the Presidency!

Apply Dr. Paul's "What If" Theory.

What if it works? We win Nevada and get crazy momentum.

What if it doesn't? We still get a lot more votes and continue great momentum.

I think we need to really attack one of these states before Super Tuesday and make sure we at least get 1. Without doing some research, I'm not sure which is the best state to attack... this is where I let the elder statesmen of RPF inform us.