Time to Come Clean, RPF -- Predictions for 2013 Reflections

[helmuth_hubener]

I hope the rest of you who participated in last year's thread will reflect on your own predictions, and take part in the next predictions thread, which I'll kick off in the next week.

One failed prediction already!!

But seriously: bring on the 2014 prediction thread!

 

[oyarde]

Where is Jordan ? I need some good news .

 

[Tod]

I must have offered my expectations in a different thread, but I was thinking we would have a major stock market crash in the fall, but it did not happen.....taking longer than I expected (I still expect one), I guess because of the ongoing QE.

FWIW, I still don't regret having bailed out of the stock market back in July, although in retrospect I could have held off a while longer.

 

[eric_cartman]

i'll make my 2014 predictions now:

DOW: 11,000
Gold: $1650
Silver: $29
10 year: 2.4%

As a Canadian i'll predict:
20% decline in condo prices (though may be reported as only 10%)... more single family homes come on the market, but not as many people are buying at these high prices... but prices will not really decline much (maybe ~5%)
Canadian financial stocks decline ~ 25%
Canadian dollar falls to around 80 cents

edit: i also wanted to add that i think the weak economies and declines will be blamed on problems around the world... so it'll be the "emerging markets" that get the blame. the taper will also be postponed... so they will not stay on their timetable to end QE.. .they'll have to stand pat at $65 billion or whatever and there will be pressure to increase the QE again. though i suspect that in reality, the Fed's balance sheet will increase by a lot more than just the $65 billion per month because of everything that needs to be rolled over and other buying that will not count as part of "QE".

 

[Madison320]

More QE not less. Higher deficits than expected. Eventually the dollar is going to crash, I don't know when.

 

[jllundqu]

2014 summed up...

 

[oyarde]

2014 summed up...

People get that when they look @ the paycheck , go to the grocer , the gas pump , pay the heat bill , pay property tax etc

 

[Zippyjuan]

I predict that something unpredicted will happen. And something predicted to happen WON'T!!!!

 

[helmuth_hubener]

2014 predictions

Mostly more of the same but double intensity, except that the dollar crisis still looks to hit sometime around December 2014, give or take 3 months. As we approach the crisis, the distortions will increase exponentially, and we will see people insisting that 'everything is perfect' even as the world is falling apart around them.

Gold and Silver will continue flat until both start climbing around August (ish), reaching about $1600 Au and $32 Ag prior to the dollar crisis, and then doubling in about 2 weeks once the dollar implodes, and continuing to expand at roughly the rate of the dollar collapse.

The DJIA becomes increasingly volatile but continues to climb until QE becomes untenable. When QE is pulled, the volatility will increase by a factor of 10, but a moving average will reveal it juuuust south of flat overall. The markets will not implode until the dollar does.

Unemployment U3 will continue flat while Unemployment U6 slowly declines through March, flat through June, and then starting to climb rapidly through September, and then launching like a Saturn rocket through December.
...

August/September/October roughly will see the beginning of the end of the petrodollar. Hard to say how fast that will go once it starts, but the timing of the dollar implosion is tied to this event and to how quickly it unfolds. Earlier/Faster leads to a Octoberish dollar collapse, Later/Slower leads to a Feb/March 2015 dollar collapse.

So, these predictions are deliciously and refreshingly specific. I love it! If this stuff does not happen, at what point will you admit you were wrong? Should we say June 2015? Is that fair enough?

So I'd have to say 'almost certainly yes, but extraordinary circumstances could potentially make this play out more slowly rather than not at all.' The good news is that we are coming into endgame, so if the answer is 'delay,' then it should be blatantly obvious to most folks on RPFs...unlike the mushy vague economic indicators we've seen the last 3-ish years.

June 2015 has arrived! So, how are we looking? A dollar crisis and the end of the petrodollar? Hmm, I'm not seeing it. An "unexpectedly large delay" with a clear cause that is blatantly obvious to pretty much anybody with a brain stem? Well, I may or may not have a brain stem, but I do not see that either.

So, what do you think, Gunny? Looks like you were wrong, yes?

 

[acptulsa]

I boldly predict that the more the MSM tells voters they've forgotten all about how thoroughly the Democrats screwed us by shoving Obamacare down our throats, the more the voters will remember how badly the Democrats screwed us by shoving Obamacare down our throats.

I didn't do too badly.

Not that I went out on a limb.

 

[devil21]

June 2015 has arrived! So, how are we looking? A dollar crisis and the end of the petrodollar? Hmm, I'm not seeing it. An "unexpectedly large delay" with a clear cause that is blatantly obvious to pretty much anybody with a brain stem? Well, I may or may not have a brain stem, but I do not see that either.

So, what do you think, Gunny? Looks like you were wrong, yes?

Wait until September 2015 before spiking the ball. Shemitah is coming.

 

[Zippyjuan]

We are more than half way (almost three quarters of the way) through Shemitah- the year started last September. http://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/562077/jewish/What-Is-Shemittah.htm

By counting sevens from then, we see that the next Shemittah year will be the year 5775 after Creation, which runs from Sept. 25, 2014, through Sept. 13, 2015.

 

[Ronin Truth]

Predicting the past is often somewhat easier.

 

[devil21]

We are more than half way (almost three quarters of the way) through Shemitah- the year started last September. http://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/562077/jewish/What-Is-Shemittah.htm

Like I said, wait until Sept before spiking the ball.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

2014 predictions

Mostly more of the same but double intensity, except that the dollar crisis still looks to hit sometime around December 2014, give or take 3 months. As we approach the crisis, the distortions will increase exponentially, and we will see people insisting that 'everything is perfect' even as the world is falling apart around them.

Gold and Silver will continue flat until both start climbing around August (ish), reaching about $1600 Au and $32 Ag prior to the dollar crisis, and then doubling in about 2 weeks once the dollar implodes, and continuing to expand at roughly the rate of the dollar collapse.

The DJIA becomes increasingly volatile but continues to climb until QE becomes untenable. When QE is pulled, the volatility will increase by a factor of 10, but a moving average will reveal it juuuust south of flat overall. The markets will not implode until the dollar does.

Unemployment U3 will continue flat while Unemployment U6 slowly declines through March, flat through June, and then starting to climb rapidly through September, and then launching like a Saturn rocket through December.
...

August/September/October roughly will see the beginning of the end of the petrodollar. Hard to say how fast that will go once it starts, but the timing of the dollar implosion is tied to this event and to how quickly it unfolds. Earlier/Faster leads to a Octoberish dollar collapse, Later/Slower leads to a Feb/March 2015 dollar collapse.

So, these predictions are deliciously and refreshingly specific. I love it! If this stuff does not happen, at what point will you admit you were wrong? Should we say June 2015? Is that fair enough?

So I'd have to say 'almost certainly yes, but extraordinary circumstances could potentially make this play out more slowly rather than not at all.' The good news is that we are coming into endgame, so if the answer is 'delay,' then it should be blatantly obvious to most folks on RPFs...unlike the mushy vague economic indicators we've seen the last 3-ish years.

June 2015 has arrived! So, how are we looking? A dollar crisis and the end of the petrodollar? Hmm, I'm not seeing it. An "unexpectedly large delay" with a clear cause that is blatantly obvious to pretty much anybody with a brain stem? Well, I may or may not have a brain stem, but I do not see that either.

So, what do you think, Gunny? Looks like you were wrong, yes?

What say you, Gunny? I am very interested to see your reaction to the way reality has turned out. Are you going to admit you were wrong as you were so sure you'd be able to easily do? Or, do something different?

 

[nayjevin]

Last year, I asked RPF to make predictions about the year ahead. Being a fair and reasonable person, I made my own. Now it's time to come clean and see how what we thought would happen measures with what actually happened. I'll kick this off with my own predictions.

Here is my original post, with comments underneath each prediction.


I hope the rest of you who participated in last year's thread will reflect on your own predictions, and take part in the next predictions thread, which I'll kick off in the next week.

I know this trick. You make different predictions on each website and revive the threads that show you were correct, while leaving the rest buried.

Just kidding, very impressive.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

What say you, Gunny? I am very interested to see your reaction to the way reality has turned out. Are you going to admit you were wrong as you were so sure you'd be able to easily do? Or, do something different?

If you actually read what I wrote, I said wrong OR delayed. If we keep on this course, the collapse of the dollar is coming, one way or the other. It's just happening a bit later than I expected. Hell, my house has been an economic apocalypse since the day I decided to run for office.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

If you actually read what I wrote, I said wrong OR delayed. If we keep on this course, the collapse of the dollar is coming, one way or the other. It's just happening a bit later than I expected. Hell, my house has been an economic apocalypse since the day I decided to run for office.

Ding! My prediction came true. Thanks, Gunny, for being an object lesson.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

Ding! My prediction came true. Thanks, Gunny, for being an object lesson.

I'm not the one so deluded as to think this economy is rainbows and unicorn farts.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

I'm not the one so deluded as to think this economy is rainbows and unicorn farts.

Hey, I don't think that, and I also never did anything to you. I have been nothing but good and decent to you. So maybe lay off, eh?

My point was not about you, it was nothing personal. My point is nobody's predictions are really worth anything. Nobody knows the future, and nobody who makes wrong predictions ever, ever (ever!) admits they were wrong. These are facts about the world that people should know and remember.