Time to Come Clean, RPF -- Predictions for 2013 Reflections

[Danke]

What if the people who know the future don't post it here because they are trying to be kind?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-21/hidden-motives-behind-federal-reserve-taper

 

[oyarde]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-21/hidden-motives-behind-federal-reserve-taper

The article by Smith from Alt Market ?

 

[LibForestPaul]

SHTF... martial law in at least one citiy. at least one european country goes belly up..unemployement jumps, real unemployement... no inflation reported, gold breaks $2k, real estate goes up, stocks flat, gallon of gas hits $5 in certain areas.

1. martial law - yeah boston, frkn freaky +1
1. SHTF -1, and no one cared
2. european country - how many haven't +1
3. unemployement jumps real unemployement +1
4. no reported inflation +1
5. 2k gold -1
6. real estate up +1 ,
7. stocks flat -1 (hand in hand with #5 and #8)
8. $5 gas - 1

 

[UtahApocalypse]

I wish I had followed JFK's prediction.....

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...mber-31-2013&p=5350310&viewfull=1#post5350310

 

[jmdrake]

Interestingly, all of my 2013 predictions turned out perfect, and yet my predictions conclude that we are on the verge of an impending total calamity, unlike yours which seem to predict unicorns farting rainbows whenever you put fingers to keyboard.

 

[pcosmar]

I boldly predict that the more the MSM tells voters they've forgotten all about how thoroughly the Democrats screwed us by shoving Obamacare down our throats, the more the voters will remember how badly the Democrats screwed us by shoving Obamacare down our throats.

And then they will shove a horribly fascist Republican down our throats.

 

[oyarde]

Last year, I asked RPF to make predictions about the year ahead. Being a fair and reasonable person, I made my own. Now it's time to come clean and see how what we thought would happen measures with what actually happened. I'll kick this off with my own predictions.

Here is my original post, with comments underneath each prediction. Come on Jordan , what do you have for 2014 ? I am sitting on $46 FRN's , I cannot decide if I should invest it , or just buy a bunch of ice cream

 

[jllundqu]

2014 Predictions:

The republicans will NOT take the Senate, but they will keep the house. They will make small gains in each, IMO

Obamacare is not going anywhere. It will become a giant cash (and soul) sucking machine that sucks inperpetuity (until economy fails)

Quantitative Easing will continue well beyond 2014 and may increase. These 'token' cuts in the printing presses are all window dressing.

Markets will continue to rise as long as the FED is printing

Inflation will be "target" since the printed money never makes it into circulation

 

[oyarde]

2014 Predictions:

The republicans will NOT take the Senate, but they will keep the house. They will make small gains in each, IMO

Obamacare is not going anywhere. It will become a giant cash (and soul) sucking machine that sucks inperpetuity (until economy fails)

Quantitative Easing will continue well beyond 2014 and may increase. These 'token' cuts in the printing presses are all window dressing.

Markets will continue to rise as long as the FED is printing

Inflation will be "target" since the printed money never makes it into circulation

While certainly depressing , that all sounds reasonable to me .....

 

[Seraphim]

He's right.

The adult labor force has been dropping as an aggregate. The adult working population in the USA is dropping rapidly - as the population (including adult population) increases!

The quitters and so call 99 weekers have been declared to not be a part of the work force. Subtract them from the employment numbers and VOILA!!! The unemployement % also drops!

Whatever you say, gwax23. You down for some predictions for 2014?

 

[GunnyFreedom]

12/12/2012 -

WAGing it but, the frog in the pot keeps inching up. A small series of expansions and contractions continues to leave the picture cloudy, some low grade inflationary pressure, some increase in unemployment YoY, people will still be saying 'were just fine' while consumers are feeling harder and harder pinched. Stock market still boosting on QE3 will continue higher, inflating the bubble. Government regulations will force people to spend money they otherwise wouldn't, improving construction and auto sectors via distortion, and we will basically be sitting in the same place we are now, just under a lot more pressure one year from today.

A small series of expansions and contractions continues to leave the picture cloudy,
a-yup

some low grade inflationary pressure,
a-yup

some increase in unemployment YoY,
Yes, although all of this expansion came from the LFPR and U6 as people dropped out of the workforce, and not from the U3.

people will still be saying 'were just fine' while consumers are feeling harder and harder pinched.
a-yup

Stock market still boosting on QE3 will continue higher, inflating the bubble.
a-yup

Government regulations will force people to spend money they otherwise wouldn't,
a-yup

improving construction and auto sectors via distortion,
a-yup

and we will basically be sitting in the same place we are now, just under a lot more pressure one year from today.
a-yup

.........................

2014 predictions

Mostly more of the same but double intensity, except that the dollar crisis still looks to hit sometime around December 2014, give or take 3 months. As we approach the crisis, the distortions will increase exponentially, and we will see people insisting that 'everything is perfect' even as the world is falling apart around them.

Gold and Silver will continue flat until both start climbing around August (ish), reaching about $1600 Au and $32 Ag prior to the dollar crisis, and then doubling in about 2 weeks once the dollar implodes, and continuing to expand at roughly the rate of the dollar collapse.

~25% increase in welfare registrations.

The DJIA becomes increasingly volatile but continues to climb until QE becomes untenable. When QE is pulled, the volatility will increase by a factor of 10, but a moving average will reveal it juuuust south of flat overall. The markets will not implode until the dollar does.

Unemployment U3 will continue flat while Unemployment U6 slowly declines through March, flat through June, and then starting to climb rapidly through September, and then launching like a Saturn rocket through December.

Real Estate will inflate (only slightly) Q1 remain flat Q2, deflate (moderately) Q3, and continue that trend until the dollar implodes whereupon real estate will roughly inverse the dollar by extraordinary price inflation.

Auto sales will stagnate until mid-May, show a short bump through August, and then start collapsing as disposable incomes vanish.

Civil and political polarization will increase even more sharply than it has been the last several years. Unrest will foment, and by October/November we will start to see "not quite riots." Mass demonstrations that are juuuuust on the verge of getting 'out of hand' but won't really broach 'riot' territory until the dollar implodes and people start confronting hunger face to face.

August/September/October roughly will see the beginning of the end of the petrodollar. Hard to say how fast that will go once it starts, but the timing of the dollar implosion is tied to this event and to how quickly it unfolds. Earlier/Faster leads to a Octoberish dollar collapse, Later/Slower leads to a Feb/March 2015 dollar collapse.

Growing societal and political pressure, along with a growing prescription rate of SSRI's to treat depression will lead to an increase in the sensational violence (whether mass shootings, bombings, bio-chemical attacks)

There is an 80% chance of a 'compound raid' like Waco or Ruby Ridge, but there is a 90% chance that that will be very poorly covered and only folks like us here on RPFs will really ever know about it.

Increased pressure by Saudi Arabia will lead to a sharp increase in war propaganda against Iran; IF we attack Iran the petrodollar will survive slightly longer, but if we ignore Iran the petrodollar will fail sooner.

 

[Dianne]

2014 = larger false flags.. Insurance salesman, Obama, must instill in the American people the need to believe he and his Saudi NSA are the only entities standing in the way of our total demise. There may be a couple of false flags, in which Obama and the NSA take credit for nabbing the NSA mind controlled perp in advance of the incident. I'm looking for a lot of that in 2014.

Republicans will keep the House, although I have no clue why. There are just a handful of Republicans in the House. Democrats Boehner, McCain, McConnell, Graham, that idiot from New York; can't remember his name ... he appears to be on drugs and always demanding more homeland security will keep Obama's agenda flowing on target. Ahhhh... just came to me; Peter King will continue to swing the agenda Obama's way.

Obamacare will cause financial devastation and a financial collapse. The alleged Government will have to pump trillions into the insurance companies as reimbursement for Obama's insurance scheme. Those that do feel compelled to buy Obama's insurance policies will have to make a choice between insurance coverage or their monthly mortgage payments; thus resulting in many millions more foreclosures conducted by the federal government in their zeal to reimburse China for a small portion of the interest on the country's debt.

The Democratic Congress (which is what it really is), will pass some type of immigration reform; just to be certain there will never be a true republican party again and Obama needs them to sign up for his health insurance policies; and walmart needs them to work for pennies, and the banksters want their money.

The Fed will pursue any anti American policy they can to keep the stock market propped up; allowing them time to build their bunkers and/or homes outside of the United States. The Fed will kill bitcoin, and create their own crypto ... will be their way out of the dollar... a new crypto currency

ON a lighter note, In 2014 Obama will leave Michelle for that bimbo he was taking selfies with ... not the woman .... but that Piers Morgan type guy Obama is so fond of.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

2014 predictions

Mostly more of the same but double intensity, except that the dollar crisis still looks to hit sometime around December 2014, give or take 3 months. As we approach the crisis, the distortions will increase exponentially, and we will see people insisting that 'everything is perfect' even as the world is falling apart around them.

Gold and Silver will continue flat until both start climbing around August (ish), reaching about $1600 Au and $32 Ag prior to the dollar crisis, and then doubling in about 2 weeks once the dollar implodes, and continuing to expand at roughly the rate of the dollar collapse.

The DJIA becomes increasingly volatile but continues to climb until QE becomes untenable. When QE is pulled, the volatility will increase by a factor of 10, but a moving average will reveal it juuuust south of flat overall. The markets will not implode until the dollar does.

Unemployment U3 will continue flat while Unemployment U6 slowly declines through March, flat through June, and then starting to climb rapidly through September, and then launching like a Saturn rocket through December.
...

August/September/October roughly will see the beginning of the end of the petrodollar. Hard to say how fast that will go once it starts, but the timing of the dollar implosion is tied to this event and to how quickly it unfolds. Earlier/Faster leads to a Octoberish dollar collapse, Later/Slower leads to a Feb/March 2015 dollar collapse.

So, these predictions are deliciously and refreshingly specific. I love it! If this stuff does not happen, at what point will you admit you were wrong? Should we say June 2015? Is that fair enough?

 

[GunnyFreedom]

So, these predictions are deliciously and refreshingly specific. I love it! If this stuff does not happen, at what point will you admit you were wrong? Should we say June 2015? Is that fair enough?

It depends on the situation. If none of this happens by June of 2015, then these predictions will either be completely wrong, or for some reason I cannot yet see extremely delayed from my expectations. I can't possibly know which until we are a bit closer to that date, but regardless it would have to be one or the other.

I have never really had a problem admitting I am wrong when I am wrong, and least of all when the subject matter is something as tentative as a 12 month prediction. So, to answer you I'd say "almost certainly," with the caveat that all of this is etherial and volatile, and the situation could simply be progressing slower than I expect.

I'm the kind of guy who really doesn't have a problem admitting when I am wrong, and I've certainly been wrong before, but I'm not really wrong that often...in part because I tend to be veeeery careful about jumping into things without all the facts. Which is why I can't just say 'yes' and be done with it. God alone knows what will be happening between now and then. Goram space aliens could fall out of the sky leaving everyone dazed for 6 months and delaying the timeframe half a year. I doubt it, but it's possible.

So I'd have to say 'almost certainly yes, but extraordinary circumstances could potentially make this play out more slowly rather than not at all.' The good news is that we are coming into endgame, so if the answer is 'delay,' then it should be blatantly obvious to most folks on RPFs...unlike the mushy vague economic indicators we've seen the last 3-ish years.

 

[CPUd]

I predict near the end of 2014, someone will post a thread here listing the predictions made for 2014, and illustrating how they were mostly true. This will be followed by 5 or 6 pages of arguing over the definition of "mostly," with occasional hyperbole scattered about.

 

[oyarde]

I predict near the end of 2014, someone will post a thread here listing the predictions made for 2014, and illustrating how they were mostly true. This will be followed by 5 or 6 pages of arguing over the definition of "mostly," with occasional hyperbole scattered about.

It will not be me .

 

[helmuth_hubener]

It depends on the situation. If none of this happens by June of 2015, then these predictions will either be completely wrong, or for some reason I cannot yet see extremely delayed from my expectations. I can't possibly know which until we are a bit closer to that date, but regardless it would have to be one or the other.

You are so sure you are right. It is very, very difficult in such a situation to then find yourself wrong and have to change your whole outlook, even for someone like you who has such an easy time admitting he is wrong.

So allow me to predict the 2nd possibility will be the one you settle on: you are totally right and everything will still happen exactly as you predicted, events have just been extremely delayed. Mitigating circumstances have mitigated.

This is the same things TV gurus say when they've been shown to be horribly, horribly wrong. There's always a way to do a re-interpretation. They always, somehow, weren't actually wrong about anything! Ever! (See Peter Schiff for a vivid illustration)

I will be very happy to see my prediction fail.

 

[tod evans]

My crystal ball is still broken...:o

However I'm comfortable predicting that government statistics concerning all economic issues will at best be extremely slanted at worse, outright lies.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

You are so sure you are right. It is very, very difficult in such a situation to then find yourself wrong and have to change your whole outlook, even for someone like you who has such an easy time admitting he is wrong.

So allow me to predict the 2nd possibility will be the one you settle on: you are totally right and everything will still happen exactly as you predicted, events have just been extremely delayed. Mitigating circumstances have mitigated.

This is the same things TV gurus say when they've been shown to be horribly, horribly wrong. There's always a way to do a re-interpretation. They always, somehow, weren't actually wrong about anything! Ever! (See Peter Schiff for a vivid illustration)

I will be very happy to see my prediction fail.

No, seriously, if the answer is "unexpectedly large delay" then it should be blatantly obvious by then to pretty much anybody with a brain stem that that's what's happening.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

We may see the collapse of virtual currencies.
BTC mining will shift more to being done with botnets.
Malware designed to steal BTC's bill become more common.
We will see more federal raids like Freedom Hosting and Silk Road. There will be lots of "collateral damage" as people loose their sites for the crime of being hosted in the server rack as the site they were after. BTC will be stolen in mass, and not returned to it's owners.

We might see financial collapse, but probably not till after 2014. This could be secondary to a successful attack on the power grid or the result of a massive, coordinated robbery. There are millions and millions of credit cards "in the wild" as major corporations and the government absolutely excel at loosing them regularly.

The Internet will become a little bit more secure, NSA will still get everything it wants, but may have to alter methods and the people will be appeased and reassured. Nothing will change, except it will get worse.
The rollout of local LE spying driven my DHS will accelerate.

I'm going to be optimistic and say the Republicans keep the house and take the senate. We get 3-4 more people elected.

The weather is going to be mild and we won't have more problems with crop failures.

States desperate search for money will cause more licencing fees, more taxes and less services.

The Rand Paul Blimp will make a showing in Iowa around November or earlier. Unlike it's predecessor, it will be 3' long and R/C.

Rand will do a lot of traveling to states that have early elections. He will make a lot of endorsements.

-t