The Super Tuesday Thread

[Warlord]

With five candidates still in the Democratic race, Super Tuesday, on March 3, will play a key role in hollowing out the field.

Several contenders, including the former US vice president Joe Biden and billionaire Michael Bloomberg, have staked their candidacy on performing well here.

Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren risks suffering the ignominy of losing the primary in her home state of Massachusetts to fellow progressive candidate Bernie Sanders, who is closing in on her in state polls. If she loses there, it may spell the end of her candidacy. Three other moderate candidates, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and Tom Steyer, all suspended their campaigns shortly before the big voting day.

What is Super Tuesday and why does it matter?

Super Tuesday is when roughly a third of Democratic voters will cast their vote in the party's presidential nomination, making it one of the most significant points in the race to take on Donald Trump. Some 14 US states and one territory will vote this Super Tuesday, more than any other day in the nomination process. This year it is even more consequential than in previous years, because California will also have its say on the same day. As the most populous state, it makes up 30 per cent of the delegates awarded on Super Tuesday, making it decisive in cutting down the large number of Democrat candidates still in the field.

The Republican Party also has primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday, but as Mr Trump is not facing a serious challenger we are focusing on the Democratic race.

When is Super Tuesday?

This year, Super Tuesday is on March 3. The phrase "Super Tuesday" dates back to the 1980s. It began when several southern states moved their primaries and caucuses forward to increase their importance in the race, to counteract the dominance of Iowa and New Hampshire. The states voting on "Super Tuesday" changes from year to year.

Which states vote?

This year Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, and American Samoa will all vote on March 3, as well as Democrats living overseas.

What time will we know the result?

Polls normally close around 7pm or 8pm meaning some states will have declared by the early hours of Wednesday morning. However, some states, like California, may take some time to announce their results.

The Bloomberg factor

This year will be particularly interesting because of the unorthodox strategy adopted by one candidate - Michael Bloomberg. Mr Bloomberg, who only entered the race around 12 weeks ago, broke with convention to ignore the first four states to vote. The former New York mayor has focused all his efforts on doing well on Super Tuesday. Moreover, Mr Bloomberg has poured more money into his campaign than any other presidential candidate in US history. Could it be a winning formula? We will know in a matter of days whether Mr Bloomber's strategy has paid off.

What are the other candidates hoping for?

Bernie Sanders wants a big win in California, the state with the most delegates available.

Elizabeth Warren needs to regain her momentum after failing to finish in the top two in the early voting states.

Joe Biden will have to win a number of the more conservative, southern states to boost his claim he is the only Democrat who can win in Republican states against Donald Trump.

Michael Bloomberg will be looking to prove his considerable funding operation translates into electoral success.

What happened in 2016?

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton won in seven states competing on Super Tuesday in 2016, while Bernie Sanders won in the remaining four. In the Republican contest, Donald Trump won in seven states while his nearest opponent, Ted Cruz, won in just three.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...-voting-what-time-polls-results-which-states/

 

[Warlord]

Polls:

 

[Warlord]

Senate primaries - Super Tuesday:

WASHINGTON — With 1,344 pledged Democratic delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday, most of the nation’s attention will be focused on the battle for the party’s presidential nomination.

But a Republican White House isn’t the only thing on the line this November. Republican control of the Senate is also up in the air, with the GOP defending 23 Senate seats, while Democrats are defending only 12.

On Tuesday, the battle for three of those Senate seats will officially begin, in North Carolina, Alabama and Texas, where primary voters will pick challengers to run against those sitting senators in November.

Here’s what’s at stake in each race.

North Carolina

Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has one of the lowest approval ratings of any GOP senator up for reelection, and Democrats consider his seat a prime pickup opportunity. Tuesday’s primary is expected to answer the question of who will run against Tillis in November.

The powerful Washington-based Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, or DSCC, is backing former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, a military veteran who is considered the most moderate Democrat in the primary. His closest rival is state Sen. Erica Smith, who has staked out a more progressive platform.

An NBC/Marist poll released Sunday showed Cunningham winning support from 51% of likely Democratic primary voters, while Smith got 18%.

The race is also noteworthy because a group with ties to Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky paid $1 million for ads promoting Erica Smith.

The voice in the ads calls Smith “one of us,” strongly implying to viewers that the ads are being paid for by a Democratic group. In reality, they’re a ploy by Republicans to boost the Democrat who they think Tillis would have the best chances of beating in November.

In a hypothetical general election matchup, the NBC/Marist poll showed Cunningham leading Tillis by 5 points, 48% to 43%.

Alabama

Three Republicans are competing here for the chance to run against vulnerable Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, who is widely considered the most endangered senator up for reelection.

Tuesday’s primary contest pits former Alabama senator and Trump Attorney General Jeff Sessions against Rep. Bradley Byrne and political newcomer Tommy Tuberville, a former Auburn University football coach. If no one gets a 50% majority on Tuesday, the top two finishers will face off later this month in a runoff.

With all three candidates polling close to one another, the race has the potential to be one of the most contentious primaries in the country, with all three candidates trying to run as close to Trump — who enjoys a 60% approval rating in Alabama — as they can.

It is also a highly risky venture for Sessions, who fell out of favor with Trump after he recused himself from Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation. Sessions stepped down in 2018, and Trump has not endorsed his Senate bid.

Prior to joining the Trump administration, Sessions represented Alabama in Congress for three decades, first in the House and then the Senate. For Sessions, ending his political career with a loss in a primary runoff would surely tarnish his legacy.

If Tuberville comes out victorious, it could also pose fresh challenges for the Republican Senate majority. Tuberville is an Arkansas native who left Auburn in 2008 and has never run for public office before, so it’s unclear how he would handle the intense scrutiny that comes with a major Senate campaign.

Texas

Powerful Republican Sen. John Cornyn is also up for reelection in November, and on Tuesday, Democratic voters there will elect his challenger.

While not nearly as vulnerable as Tillis or Jones, Cornyn is running in a state that is shifting from solidly conservative, to, increasingly, a toss-up.

And just like in North Carolina, here again the powerful DSCC has endorsed a moderate Democrat who consistently leads in the polls: MJ Hegar, a former Air Force helicopter pilot and entrepreneur.

The DSCC’s decision to endorse Hegar in December sparked several of her challengers to accuse the Senate Democrats’ fundraising arm of ignoring more qualified candidates of color.

The Texas primary is also expected to result in a run-off, potentially offering one of Hegar’s challengers the opportunity to consolidate the opposition.

Risky bets for the DSCC

Both Cunningham in North Carolina and Hegar in Texas poll well among primary voters. But they also represent a centrist approach to 2020 that could backfire on Democrats, especially if Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is atop the party’s ticket in November.

Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, is running for the Democratic presidential nomination on an unabashedly populist and progressive platform, asking voters to reject political centrism and embrace his “movement.”

And in both North Carolina and Texas, Democratic voters seem poised to do just that.

The NBC/Marist poll released Sunday showed Sanders leading his closest rival, Biden, by 15 points in Texas. In North Carolina, the race was tighter, with Sanders edging Biden out by only 2 points. The poll was taken before Biden’s strong showing on Saturday in South Carolina’s primary.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/super-tuesday-senate-primaries-guide.html

 

[oyarde]

Polls:

By nights end I think sanders has 11 states in the bag total so far at least and the second most delegates in ea state he does not win .

 

[Warlord]

By nights end I think sanders has 11 states in the bag total so far at least and the second most delegates in ea state he does not win .

Biden is now favorite for the nomination with the prediction markets/bookmakers!

Are you running a book, oyarde?

 

[euphemia]

I’m not sure what early voting will reveal, but with Nashville waking up to extensive tornado damage, expect turnout here to be low. It sounds as if several polling places have been damaged enough that voters have been sent to alternate locations.

 

[Warlord]

I’m not sure what early voting will reveal, but with Nashville waking up to extensive tornado damage, expect turnout here to be low. It sounds as if several polling places have been damaged enough that voters have been sent to alternate locations.

Thanks for the report!

Here's a poll on TN:

 

[Anti Globalist]

I'm predicting Sanders will be winning most of these states.

 

[euphemia]

This storm seems to have followed the I-40 corridor from Benton county to Putnam county. Many people and places are without power. My neighborhood abuts I-40. I cannot believe we slept right through and our neighborhood appears untouched. Nashville itself is liberal, but east of here tends to vote more sensibly. I guess we’ll see.

Marsha Blackburn is from here. I expect her to show up soon and take center stage. It will be difficult for any of the democratic candidates to say anything important. Most of them were in office during the flood of 2010. Obama took his time to fly over and Biden didn’t come at all. We couldn’t get our own senators or reps to show up then,

People don’t forget that so easily.

 

[Warlord]

Sanders poised for big Super Tuesday

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is poised to win the most delegates when 14 states vote on this cycle’s Super Tuesday, while former Vice President Joe Biden is looking to solidify his position as the centrist alternative.

Sanders is headed for a top finish in California and Texas, the two largest states to vote. The progressive independent should win California in blowout fashion, and he’s maintained a healthy lead in polls of Texas throughout the early voting period, when more than 1 million people cast ballots in the Democratic primary.

Centrist Democrats are frantically throwing their weight behind Biden in an effort to keep Sanders from building an insurmountable lead.

Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) dropped out of the race on Sunday and Monday, respectively, and plan to get behind Biden over fears that Sanders will lose the general election to President Trump if he’s the party’s nominee.

Yet in addition to strong finishes in California and Texas, Sanders also appears headed for victories in Colorado, Utah, Maine and Vermont. With Klobuchar out of the race, Sanders is the favorite to win Minnesota, and he’s pushing to win in Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s home state of Massachusetts.

Biden’s best-case scenario involves a sweep in the South, where voters in Alabama, Arkansas and Tennessee will be casting ballots.

But those victories are not guaranteed, particularly with former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg on the ballot for the first time. Sanders is running at or near the top of the polls in Virginia and North Carolina, where Biden needs to do well.

“No question, Bernie will still be the front-runner after Super Tuesday, he’ll have the most delegates,” said one Democrat who has raised money for Biden. “Biden’s entire plan is to win where he can, mostly in the South, and come in second in other places. Anything that keeps the delegates math close is a win for Biden right now.”

It’s unclear whether the hundreds of millions of dollars Bloomberg has spent on a national ad campaign will translate into hard votes on Tuesday.

Texas could be a key swing state. Sanders has led the polls but recent surveys show rising support for Biden, despite competition from Bloomberg.

Biden’s campaign is hoping that Bloomberg fits the pattern of businessman Tom Steyer, the billionaire who flamed out after spending hundreds of millions of his own money on a national advertising campaign that lifted him in the polls but not at the ballot box.

“Bernie has cleared the left and now Joe has cleared the center, nobody needed a well-meaning Republican billionaire to come in and save the party, we’re doing it ourselves,” said Howard Gutman, a former Obama administration ambassador who supports Biden. “Bloomberg ought to get out today. Every vote he takes from Joe is a vote for Donald Trump.”

Warren faces a must-win contest in her home state of Massachusetts. Sanders is looking to slam the door shut on her there, drawing thousands to rallies across the Bay State over the weekend.

But Warren has the resources to stick around, raising nearly $30 million in February after taking down Bloomberg at the Las Vegas debate. Warren’s campaign has stated its intention to stay in the race through the convention, hoping she can prevail there if no other candidate wins a majority of delegates.

“Our grassroots campaign is built to compete in every state and territory and ultimately prevail at the national convention in Milwaukee,” campaign manager Roger Lau said in an email to supporters.

Sanders is feeling pressure to win outright before the convention.

While the political world buzzed about Biden’s comeback, Sanders rolled on, announcing a $46 million February cash haul and drawing 25,000 people to rallies in Los Angeles and San Jose, Calif.

The FiveThirtyEight model shows a tightening race, with Sanders and Biden effectively forecast to split the 14 states up for grabs.

Polls in North Carolina and Virginia point to a close contest, with Sanders or Biden positioned to win depending on how late-breaking voters decide.

Sanders’s allies are confident. They say early voting and their candidate’s strategically smart campaign will lead to victories. Sanders has been harvesting mail-in ballots from the thousands who have attended his rallies in California to deliver them in bulk to county registrars ahead of Election Day.

“Bernie has already locked in a strong showing and will most likely win the largest basket of delegates, not just because of the millions of votes already cast in early voting before South Carolina, but because of the campaign organizing that has been working exceptionally hard for many months, an infrastructure that no amount of South Carolina momentum can overcome,” said Jonathan Tasini, a progressive strategist and Sanders supporter.

Still, momentum has swung sharply in Biden’s direction since South Carolina.

After struggling to raise money for the past year, the Biden campaign pulled in an astonishing $5 million in the 24 hours after his South Carolina victory.

Establishment and centrist Democrats are rallying behind Biden’s campaign, boosting his case as the strongest alternative to Sanders.

Since the Saturday election, Biden has won endorsements from Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Reps. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), Bobby Scott (D-Va.), Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.), Don Beyer (D-Va.), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.). Party leaders such as former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and former Sens. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) also jumped on board.

“The race has always been Bernie versus Joe, it’s just been a lot of noise getting here,” said Gutman. “The question is whether the center wins out or the left. If the center holds, Joe is the guy.”

Campaign officials and party strategists are overwhelmed by the high degree of uncertainty in the race, where any number of factors could tip a state election in one direction or another.

“This is completely unprecedented,” said Andrew Feldman, a Democratic strategist. “It’s why the idea of a brokered convention doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility. We just have to wait and see.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485613-sanders-poised-for-big-super-tuesday

 

[Warlord]

Betting Odds - Democratic Presidential Nomination

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/

Who knows what's going to happen tonight...

 

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

I had Biden running in 2016, but I think his kid died.

The military industrial complex, pigs, and others don't want Sanders at all. You knew that Pedo Joe would rise to the top.

 

[Warlord]

I had Biden running in 2016, but I think his kid died.

The military industrial complex, pigs, and others don't want Sanders at all. You knew that Pedo Joe would rise to the top.

It seems he has the momentum. Most of the polls were done before the others dropped out so it makes tonight interesting!

 

[Warlord]

Marsha Blackburn is from here. I expect her to show up soon and take center stage. It will be difficult for any of the democratic candidates to say anything important. Most of them were in office during the flood of 2010. Obama took his time to fly over and Biden didn’t come at all. We couldn’t get our own senators or reps to show up then,

People don’t forget that so easily.

Trump has scheduled a trip to TN:

https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...it-tennessee-after-deadly-tornadoes-hit-state

 

[oyarde]

Biden is now favorite for the nomination with the prediction markets/bookmakers!

Are you running a book, oyarde?

i expect sanders to do well in delegates in tenn and the indian territory as well as all the states he is leading

 

[TheTexan]

I voted

 

[Warlord]

I voted

How many times?

 

[sparebulb]

I voted

Is W on the ballot somewhere?

 

[TheTexan]

How many times?

Enough to ensure a Trump victory in his primary

 

[TheTexan]

Is W on the ballot?

Sadly no. It would have been an honor to consider voting for him again. Of course I would have still voted Trump though.