The reality in Iowa

[Todd]

NO! STAY TO ELECT DELEGATES

Stay until after the vote is cast, we can have a landslide victory and have it mean nothing if we don't stay for the delegate elections afterward.

I need to stress the point of staying for delegate election. Dean won 52% of the vote here in Iowa City and all of his people left, then people voted for delegates and he didn't get a single one so it was all for NOTHING!
VERY important!

That was posted earlier. Vote and stay put or its a waste!

Yes, Yes and Yes.....If everyone would join the Republican party and concentrate on the delegate issue, this is a possibility....Just study past elections. Remember....the primary is a "popularity contest"...The delegates vote for whom they have pledged for...it is different in different states.
Here is an article on the importance

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/PatrickJBuchanan/2007/12/21/is_it_down_to_mitt_and_mike

 

[Todd]

AReal Conservative is not a troll, he's been on these forums since the beginning and there's nothing wrong with realistic observations, especially from someone who actually LIVES in Iowa and knows what's going on.

Remember before the straw poll how many thought we were going to win? Well a few sober minded Iowans like A Real Conservatives warned us that was not the case. We didn't have the organization nor had we spent the time necessary to identify supporters and make sure they got to the straw poll. When we finished fifth it was a real shock to some people and they got discouraged when actually they should have been encouraged, We got over 1,300 votes with basically no campaign organization whatsoever. It was all done with grassroots and we beat out a candidate, Tommy Thompson, who practically lived in the state for a year and a half and was from nearby Wisconsin. Not only that, two of the candidates that have finished ahead of us have dropped out!

With so many primaries and caucuses scheduled all at once and RP insitent upon doing his duties as a Congressman, we didn't spend the time needed in Iowa fellows without jobs and duties like Romney and Huckabee have. And the official camapaign been pretty tight fisted with their travel budget. So placing third is very big accomplishment. If if its true then that Iowa only gives three tickets out onwards to New Hampshire (assuming you put the effort there) then we should reap a great reward for a top three finish. After all, George Bush I finished third in Iowa in 1988 and went on to the GOP nomination that year. Why not Ron Paul?

Agreed... Just because you speak of reality does not make one a troll. That's just a label from someone with nothing to say about what has been said.

 

[deedles]

I am seeing way too much optimism concerning Iowa. I think the grass roots has done an outstanding job - mail iowa, sign waves, phone calls, door to door handouts, etc, etc. The grassroots deserves a pat on the back. But we simply aren't going to win this state. I've lived in Iowa my entire life - I've lived in Des Moines, I've lived in Ottumwa. I've spent summers in Bloomfield. I've lived in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Council Bluffs, and Waterloo. I've ridden a bicycle across the state 15 years, hitting most of the small towns in the process. I know this state and I know how the caucus process works. We can't win.

HQ didn't ever have any plans or hopes of winning the state. There are 99 counties in Iowa. How many has the campaign hit? Off of the top of my head, here is the list (I'm sure I'm missing a couple) -

Des Moines - Polk County
Ames - Story County
Fairfield -Jefferson County?
Oskaloosa - Mahaska County?
Pella - Marion
Council Bluffs - Pottawattamie
Cedar Falls - Blackhawk
Cedar Rapids - Linn
Iowa City - Johnson

So, even adding in couple of missed stops - that is 10-11 counties out of 99. Oh - we are probably just missing out on all the small counties though, right? Wrong - the third largest county in the state has been completely avoided so has the fifth and 6th largest counties. The third largest population density in the state has also been completey skipped. To win a caucus it requires a candidate to stump the state and even return two or three times. A caucus requires far more of a time commitment form the voter then a primary does. People don't caucus for a phantom candidate that didn't make a presence in their location.

We have a great chance of getting third - and if this happens it is completely due to the grass roots efforts.

I have a couple suggestions for thread starters of this ilk:

1: Go out and campaign for Dr. Paul
2: Start a blog of your own and stop cluttering up the forum with your opinions. Thank goodness everyone doesn't feel the need to pontificate on everything going on.

Sorry if this sounds rude, but there is way too much of this lately. It's like this forum is turning from 'action' to 'discussion'.

 

[ARealConservative]

I have a couple suggestions for thread starters of this ilk:

1: Go out and campaign for Dr. Paul
2: Start a blog of your own and stop cluttering up the forum with your opinions. Thank goodness everyone doesn't feel the need to pontificate on everything going on.

Sorry if this sounds rude, but there is way too much of this lately. It's like this forum is turning from 'action' to 'discussion'.

That's fine.

But please, post this same thing to those wasting precious campaign time posting about how we will finish 1st in Iowa.

 

[Ozwest]

Iowa is one frickin' state. We don't have to win every state to win the nomination. Hopefully, we WILL win Iowa, but if we do not, we have in no way lost this nomination. There are a lot of states to go. Don't think for a second, that I don't plan on us winning this nomination. Because, I darn sure do!

Iowa may be "one frickin state," but it is the most important state in the Union at this very moment, and you may "plan on us winning this nomination," but your negative posting is un-productive and harmful to say the least.

You may possess the tools to justify your posts in this thread, but those justifications are delusional.

Open your eyes, and examine the tone of discourse on this forum of late. Any competitor would be elated to see the divisivness and crumbling morale.

Is it not enough to contend with trolls and attention-seeking newcomers? Why would long-standing senior members add to the chaos at a crucial juncture in this campaign, when leadership and clarity is required?

 

[Shink]

correct me if my maths is wrong, but even if 80% of Iowa has access to the internet and most of them have heard of ron paul, and even if 20% of them only have a mobile phone, the polls should have placed Ron Paul higher by now if his views had caught a majority. They haven't so he cannot perform well. I suspect Dr Paul knows this.

I'm not one of those who loves running around screaming about trolls or worrying that COINTELPRO is behind 95% of all content I see on this site, but for you to say "he cannot perform well" is ridiculous. Sure, Ron knows he's not going to take first in one of the most cliche Bible Belt states there is, but there is a large amount of REPUBLICANS who are sick of the war and there is a high likelihood that Ron will place 4th or 3rd, due to shitty weather, motivated support, and the fact that his support IS bigger than Des Moines Register Shill Polls would have you believe. If there are signs in Fort Fucking Madison, there are is a WEALTH of support statewide. You act as though Ron placing 4th or 3rd is not 'performing well.' Remember--Ron "can't win, is a kook, nobody supports him, should not be running." We're making the naysayers look like fuckin' idiots.

FOR THE REST OF YOU, YEAH, I SAID SHITTY WEATHER! IT'S SNOWING LIKE CRAAAZY! Apparently the Quad Cities are being hit hard, too. What's that spell? PEOPLE STAYING HOME UNLESS THEY'RE FOR RON PAUL!

 

[ARealConservative]

Iowa may be "one frickin state," but it is the most important state in the Union at this very moment, and you may "plan on us winning this nomination," but your negative posting is un-productive and harmful to say the least.

You may possess the tools to justify your posts in this thread, but those justifications are delusional.

Open your eyes, and examine the tone of discourse on this forum of late. Any competitor would be elated to see the divisivness and crumbling morale.

Is it not enough to contend with trolls and attention-seeking newcomers? Why would long-standing senior members add to the chaos at a crucial juncture in this campaign, when leadership and clarity is required?

I consider it harmful for a great numberof people to expect a victory in Iowa. I'm concerned of the fallout when this doesn't happen.

sure, it's possible that the polls are so far off that we win, but it isn't a realstic outlook 3 days prior to the event. I just finished the three day weekend going door to door in Clinton, IA - we aren't going to finish in first place based on all objective evidence I encountered this weekend.

 

[FreedomLover]

I never had any delusions about ron paul getting first place, but i think shooting for first or second can't hurt, because it makes us work that much harder.

I know we'll probably get 3rd or 4th, but that in and of itself is amazing considering Ron Paul has probably been in the state the least amount of time of all the candidates. And Iowa loves candidates who treat them like royalty and spend their entire campaign there to show that they really want Iowa, like edwards.

 

[LibertyEagle]

Iowa may be "one frickin state," but it is the most important state in the Union at this very moment, and you may "plan on us winning this nomination," but your negative posting is un-productive and harmful to say the least.

You may possess the tools to justify your posts in this thread, but those justifications are delusional.

Open your eyes, and examine the tone of discourse on this forum of late. Any competitor would be elated to see the divisivness and crumbling morale.

Is it not enough to contend with trolls and attention-seeking newcomers? Why would long-standing senior members add to the chaos at a crucial juncture in this campaign, when leadership and clarity is required?

I'm sorry you see it that way, Ozwest. That is certainly not what I was saying or intending. But, if it came across that way, that's all that matters. I will think about what you said.

 

[NOLA]

I am a realist and not going to get dejected and say the campaign is over after Iowa. We didn't give Ron 19 million to campaign for one state. 5th is what I am expecting with a 4th place finish would be great because we would have beat one of the other "known" candidates that is actively campaigning.

The media is not going to give us any more coverage for a 3rd over a 4th because if McCain and Thompson both finish below us then they are just going to leave our name off of the screen. One below us, the MSM will spin the story saying it was "a defeat" for the candidate below us. I am hoping it is McCain that is below us because that will really hurt him in NH. Fred already said he is not going to campaign there.

 

[FreedomLover]

I consider it harmful for a great numberof people to expect a victory in Iowa. I'm concerned of the fallout when this doesn't happen.

I agree with you ARC, being overly-optimistic breeds complacency and can really hurt people's self-esteem and faith in the campaign when they're proven wrong. It's an expectations game.

It's important to be realistic about this folks. I honestly am hoping for first place but I know that the chances of that are slim, so if we get in the top 4, I'll be much happier with our position.

 

[nist7]

sure, it's possible that the polls are so far off that we win, but it isn't a realstic outlook 3 days prior to the event. I just finished the three day weekend going door to door in Clinton, IA - we aren't going to finish in first place based on all objective evidence I encountered this weekend.

Your grassroots evidence might be objective but far from representative.
But how many Iowans actually attend those caucuses? I share your realistic expectations and I am personally hoping for a 3rd....which would be a GREAT success.

And what about the hundreds of students canvassing daily? It's truly a grassroots versus Old Media battle......

 

[the_oco]

I think the OP's point was that while it is great to be optimistic and hope for 1st place in all 50 states, we need to be be prepared for a less than stellar finish in Iowa so that if it does happen it doesn't come as such a huge psychological defeat and cause splits in the grassroots.

 

[Mark Rushmore]

It's not like we have long to wait until the results are in. If people feel so strongly about whether he will come in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or whatever your opinion may be - arrange some wagers via PM and wait 80 hours or however long is left. It can't be healthy to spend so much time arguing about what the result will be in an event whose outcome is largely now determined and which none of the individuals arguing can exert realistic individual control over.

A few last minute overnight letters if you like, maybe a phone call or two, might be enough time for a random letter to the editor to sneak in there. Otherwise, unless you are in Iowa or can make it to Iowa - turn fire on NH for a brief time then MI/SC/NV and so on.

 

[nist7]

I think the OP's point was that while it is great to be optimistic and hope for 1st place in all 50 states, we need to be be prepared for a less than stellar finish in Iowa so that if it does happen it doesn't come as such a huge psychological defeat and cause splits in the grassroots.

That was definitely his message but he did not make that clear in the first post...which is why we have all the bickering and name-calling.

 

[malibu]

Yes, Yes and Yes.....If everyone would join the Republican party and concentrate on the delegate issue, this is a possibility....Just study past elections. Remember....the primary is a "popularity contest"...The delegates vote for whom they have pledged for...it is different in different states.
Here is an article on the importance

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/PatrickJBuchanan/2007/12/21/is_it_down_to_mitt_and_mike

With all due respect gran-poppy needs to take his coumadin and heart medications by 9pm - if he can't just "vote and go"- he won't vote at all.

It is an advantage to the GOP side of the caucus that should be capitalized on in some instances -sure stay if you can -

but if the VFW vets just want to get back to the post and drink beers and shoot pool while watching the football game and the caucus results come in, DO NOT discourage them in these last days.

Again, this is an advantage to help get a better GOP turnout. I'd rather just tell an Obama supporter to "vote and go " with the GOP then miss the caucuses entirely because they can't blow their entire shift at the Perkins coffeehouse down the block.

And for those last minute conversions . . . they can change voter registration from dem to GOP up until 7:00 pm sharp at the caucus site - but you have to go to the right caucus location.
http://www.iowagop.net/countycontacts.asp

hover and click over county for GOP caucus locations statewide -

Note there are some differences from earlier lists passed out through some meetups ( i.e do NOT show up at the Coralville Marriott in Johnson County - all Coralville GOP precincts are caucusing at the Holiday Inn - just north of the First Ave I-80 exit ) -
you'll be late if you go to the wrong location, and then you won't get to participate.

77 hours to go !

 

[nist7]

It's not like we have long to wait until the results are in.

How fast do the caucuses total up the results? That same night?

 

[NOLA]

If Fred places below us then he bows out in my opinion. We have to spin this race as we have the organization and money for the long run. Huckabee is not going anywhere fast after Iowa. We have to compete against McCain, Romney until Florida. We have to say we are in for the long haul and are capable of carrying it out. The anti-Guilliani candidate in Florida.

 

[Badger Paul]

`Let's see there are seven candidates competing, of that group Hunter is of little concern. Guliani has openly written off the state and everyone knows it and Thompson wishes he was someplace else and has said so.

So I believe that puts us in fourth automatically. So there will be two races on Thursday night. One between Huckabee and Romney for first and one between McCain and Paul for third. Because we have the stronger grassroots presence and organization than McCain does, I think we can finish ahead of him. For McCain to do well he needs a lot of regular Republican caucus goers who were undecided or were supporting Romney and Huckabee to switch to him and I just don't think there are a lot of them out there. Still, getting over 10% is very realistic and his supporters will spin that to a victory. That's why we need to finish ahead of him and become the "news" of Thursday night's coverage.

 

[Cardinal Red]

I am seeing way too much optimism concerning Iowa. I think the grass roots has done an outstanding job - mail iowa, sign waves, phone calls, door to door handouts, etc, etc. The grassroots deserves a pat on the back. But we simply aren't going to win this state. I've lived in Iowa my entire life - I've lived in Des Moines, I've lived in Ottumwa. I've spent summers in Bloomfield. I've lived in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Council Bluffs, and Waterloo. I've ridden a bicycle across the state 15 years, hitting most of the small towns in the process. I know this state and I know how the caucus process works. We can't win.

HQ didn't ever have any plans or hopes of winning the state. There are 99 counties in Iowa. How many has the campaign hit? Off of the top of my head, here is the list (I'm sure I'm missing a couple) -

Des Moines - Polk County
Ames - Story County
Fairfield -Jefferson County?
Oskaloosa - Mahaska County?
Pella - Marion
Council Bluffs - Pottawattamie
Cedar Falls - Blackhawk
Cedar Rapids - Linn
Iowa City - Johnson

So, even adding in couple of missed stops - that is 10-11 counties out of 99. Oh - we are probably just missing out on all the small counties though, right? Wrong - the third largest county in the state has been completely avoided so has the fifth and 6th largest counties. The third largest population density in the state has also been completey skipped. To win a caucus it requires a candidate to stump the state and even return two or three times. A caucus requires far more of a time commitment form the voter then a primary does. People don't caucus for a phantom candidate that didn't make a presence in their location.

We have a great chance of getting third - and if this happens it is completely due to the grass roots efforts.

Thank you A Real Conservative, for this and your follow-on posts. Based on my own two decades of close election watching you are right in every respect. Guys, this isn't a negative post, its a realistic one. If we finish in third, it would be outstanding and would shock the establishment. I'd personally even be OK with fourth, which would mean we beat two out of three of Thompson, Giuliani, and McCain, all one-time "Front-Runners" for the nomination.

My Kudos to the grassroots for their hard work in this state to put us in a position to do well. I must admit to being mystified as to why RP didn't spend much more time in this state, but I am not using this to second-guess the campaign or its strategy. RP has won elections in the past and we have to assume that he and his staff know what they are doing.

Bottom line, set expectations low, and work hard for a victory, but if you are expecting one, you are just setting yourself up for deep disappointment, or future whining about "fixed" polls. Let's stay positive, and realize that outside the Ron Paul bubble, a third, or even strong fourth place finish will exceed expectations and give us momentum going into New Hampshire.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I am going to do more calldowns from my Iowa list provided by HQ