The reality in Iowa

[ARealConservative]

I am seeing way too much optimism concerning Iowa. I think the grass roots has done an outstanding job - mail iowa, sign waves, phone calls, door to door handouts, etc, etc. The grassroots deserves a pat on the back. But we simply aren't going to win this state. I've lived in Iowa my entire life - I've lived in Des Moines, I've lived in Ottumwa. I've spent summers in Bloomfield. I've lived in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Council Bluffs, and Waterloo. I've ridden a bicycle across the state 15 years, hitting most of the small towns in the process. I know this state and I know how the caucus process works. We can't win.

HQ didn't ever have any plans or hopes of winning the state. There are 99 counties in Iowa. How many has the campaign hit? Off of the top of my head, here is the list (I'm sure I'm missing a couple) -

Des Moines - Polk County
Ames - Story County
Fairfield -Jefferson County?
Oskaloosa - Mahaska County?
Pella - Marion
Council Bluffs - Pottawattamie
Cedar Falls - Blackhawk
Cedar Rapids - Linn
Iowa City - Johnson

So, even adding in couple of missed stops - that is 10-11 counties out of 99. Oh - we are probably just missing out on all the small counties though, right? Wrong - the third largest county in the state has been completely avoided so has the fifth and 6th largest counties. The third largest population density in the state has also been completey skipped. To win a caucus it requires a candidate to stump the state and even return two or three times. A caucus requires far more of a time commitment form the voter then a primary does. People don't caucus for a phantom candidate that didn't make a presence in their location.

We have a great chance of getting third - and if this happens it is completely due to the grass roots efforts.

 

[shasshas]

yes - you have to remember that Ron Paul himself is a pragmatist and realises that the chances of him winning anywhere is quite remote. So I suspect he has tol dhis compaign staff to follow his instructions and not expend effort unnecessarily. Instead he wants to see how strong the movement really is as from past experience, he knows for a fact that only a minority follow his views.

 

[Paulbot_9876]

I am seeing way too much optimism concerning Iowa. I think the grass roots has done an outstanding job - mail iowa, sign waves, phone calls, door to door handouts, etc, etc. The grassroots deserves a pat on the back. But we simply aren't going to win this state. I've lived in Iowa my entire life - I've lived in Des Moines, I've lived in Ottumwa. I've spent summers in Bloomfield. I've lived in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Council Bluffs, and Waterloo. I've ridden a bicycle across the state 15 years, hitting most of the small towns in the process. I know this state and I know how the caucus process works. We can't win.

HQ didn't ever have any plans or hopes of winning the state. There are 99 counties in Iowa. How many has the campaign hit? Off of the top of my head, here is the list (I'm sure I'm missing a couple) -

Des Moines - Polk County
Ames - Story County
Fairfield -Jefferson County?
Oskaloosa - Mahaska County?
Pella - Marion
Council Bluffs - Pottawattamie
Cedar Falls - Blackhawk
Cedar Rapids - Linn
Iowa City - Johnson

So, even adding in couple of missed stops - that is 10-11 counties out of 99. Oh - we are probably just missing out on all the small counties though, right? Wrong - the third largest county in the state has been completely avoided so has the fifth and 6th largest counties. The third largest population density in the state has also been completey skipped. To win a caucus it requires a candidate to stump the state and even return two or three times. A caucus requires far more of a time commitment form the voter then a primary does. People don't caucus for a phantom candidate that didn't make a presence in their location.

We have a great chance of getting third - and if this happens it is completely due to the grass roots efforts.

who is saying these high population counties don't have internet access???? who is to say these counties havent got a phone call about rp and then looked him up on the net????? i am sure that everyone who has access o the internet has heard of rp...if they haven't,then the phone calls from the organizations doing the calls had made them aware of ron paul.... might want to check to see if rp searches has spiked over the last few days.....

 

[me3]

yes - you have to remember that Ron Paul himself is a pragmatist and realises that the chances of him winning anywhere is quite remote. So I suspect he has tol dhis compaign staff to follow his instructions and not expend effort unnecessarily. Instead he wants to see how strong the movement really is as from past experience, he knows for a fact that only a minority follow his views.

I'm really tired of you talking down the campaign. You're constantly marginalizing the message, and talking down our chances to win.

Why are you here?

 

[shasshas]

who is saying these high population counties don't have internet access???? who is to say these counties havent got a phone call about rp and then looked him up on the net????? i am sure that everyone who has access o the internet has heard of rp...if they haven't,then the phone calls from the organizations doing the calls had made them aware of ron paul.... might want to check to see if rp searches has spiked over the last few days.....

correct me if my maths is wrong, but even if 80% of Iowa has access to the internet and most of them have heard of ron paul, and even if 20% of them only have a mobile phone, the polls should have placed Ron Paul higher by now if his views had caught a majority. They haven't so he cannot perform well. I suspect Dr Paul knows this.

 

[ARealConservative]

who is saying these high population counties don't have internet access???? who is to say these counties havent got a phone call about rp and then looked him up on the net????? i am sure that everyone who has access o the internet has heard of rp...if they haven't,then the phone calls from the organizations doing the calls had made them aware of ron paul.... might want to check to see if rp searches has spiked over the last few days.....

They do have internet access, they have also gotten mail from the mail Iowa program.

This will help - it is these efforts that are going to net us a 4th or possibly even 3rd place finish in the state.


My point of this thread is to help set reasonable expectations. It can be devestating for a political movement to not match expectations, and I see our expectations as being completely unreasonable.

 

[Dan Klaus]

hmmm..that is sobering...hope your assessment is off, but point taken...I feel so very, very optimistic and fear that I will be spiritually crushed should Dr. Paul not place in the top 3...maybe I need to dial down my expectations?

 

[me3]

correct me if my maths is wrong, but even if 80% of Iowa has access to the internet and most of them have heard of ron paul, and even if 20% of them only have a mobile phone, the polls should have placed Ron Paul higher by now if his views had caught a majority. They haven't so he cannot perform well. I suspect Dr Paul knows this.

See what I mean?

Posts like this,

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=735659&postcount=10

 

[Ozwest]

That's the kind of positive message that will win the election ARealConservative!

Thanks for your inspirational insight.

 

[Badger Paul]

Did they not have lit drops in Waterloo and Davenport the weekends of Dec. 8 and 15? You may want to add those to your list. You could probably also add the places that the student groups are going as well.

I agree the campaign should have spent more time in Iowa so they probably won't finish first or second (although if turnout is the key then we won't have a problem getting our people to the polls.) Luckily, are main opponents for that coveted third slot haven't spent much time in Iowa either nor do they have the organization to get people to the polls.

 

[Paulbot_9876]

correct me if my maths is wrong, but even if 80% of Iowa has access to the internet and most of them have heard of ron paul, and even if 20% of them only have a mobile phone, the polls should have placed Ron Paul higher by now if his views had caught a majority. They haven't so he cannot perform well. I suspect Dr Paul knows this.

guess you havent watched the f you frank video.......

 

[fortilite]

Who cares where the campaign went? The grassroots has consistently been effective.

 

[Original_Intent]

correct me if my maths is wrong, but even if 80% of Iowa has access to the internet and most of them have heard of ron paul, and even if 20% of them only have a mobile phone, the polls should have placed Ron Paul higher by now if his views had caught a majority. They haven't so he cannot perform well. I suspect Dr Paul knows this.

We will find out in three days.

I don't predict a win but I predict a strong showing that will be at least double the 7% the "scientific polls" are giving him.

At that point, we need to address WHY the polls were so wrong for so long, and you can help yourself to some Kentucky Fried Crow.

If, on the other hand, we get under 10%, I will partake of the KFC. Fair?

 

[LibertyEagle]

Thanks, ARealConservative.

I'm hoping that we come in 3rd and praying for a miracle that we do better.

You are right though, the good doctor has campaigned very little in Iowa, especially compared to the months that many of the other candidates have spent there traveling around the state, meeting in countless people's homes and doing townhalls.

Yup, I'm praying for a miracle and stranger things have happened. The grassroots has been kicking %$#.

 

[tsetsefly]

That's the kind of positive message that will win the election ARealConservative!

Thanks for your inspirational insight.

guys its being realistic. Dont set yourself up for a hard fall based on assumptions.

I do think polls are biased, for that reason we just dont know about support in Iowa.

Unfortunately, voters DONT think polls are biased and like it or not most voters do take into account "electibility" for them electibility is having good poll numbers so...

 

[pmbug]

We have a great chance of getting third - and if this happens it is completely due to the grass roots efforts.

That is the sum total of my optimism for Iowa. A 3rd place finish due to the grassroots would be an outstanding victory and will reflect well on the campaign heading into New Hampshire.

 

[Badger Paul]

Dr. Paul did visit Sioux City as well. Put that on there.

 

[me3]

I think we will win Iowa. Just a gut feeling.

I'm actually less confident about NH.

 

[ARealConservative]

That's the kind of positive message that will win the election ARealConservative!

Thanks for your inspirational insight.

Sorry, but I'm posting the truth.


The campaign didn't really do what it takes to win Iowa, which isn't necessarily bad. Iowa is historicaly bad at picking the president anyway - the saying is there are only three roads out of Iowa - so a 3rd place finish would be a huge victory for us.


But not if we finish third and lose momentum because everybody is dejected that we didn' finish 1st or second.

 

[austin4paul]

Thanks for the kick in the butt!

People, we shouldn't be surprised that there are trolls here trying to demoralize us. You can check posting history by clicking on their name and then looking at previous posts. When they're all negative and derogatory, then you know that we've got someone here, likely hired hands of a competitor, trying to demoralize and stop us from getting the job done. What they don't realize is that the group of people here aren't the sheeple and we aren't swayed by the negativism -- posts like this only inspire us to work that much harder.

This was just the motivation I needed today to get off my butt. That's it for me for the day. I'm now off to put my boots on the ground and stump for Ron Paul!