The reality in Iowa

[Todd]

I just don't see how Huckabee could beat Ron Paul in Iowa.

Judging by Meetup groups, Paul has 4x as many members in Des Moines alone than Huckabee.
Granted, theres the non-affiliated churches that will support Huckabee but I gotta think that Paul will either beat Huckabee or come real close in Iowa.

It is strong in Christian support. Church networking every Sunday...It's a powerful thing. If he does place high it is because of this....sprinkle in a little MSM attention over the last month and you get him polling in the 20% range.

 

[ARealConservative]

ARealConservative is one of those who thought the campaign was insane for setting a 12mil fund raising goal for the quarter and said we couldn't out do November 5th donations on the Tea Party, and said the Blimp would never fly. I have to admit, I was somewhat skeptical, but didn't say it. I think we have achieved many unbelievable things, who know what can happen with a lot of work?

hence our grassroots has far surpassed my expectations. - but I doubt I said it was insane.

You guys are all great - I just don't want to see mass dejection when Romney and Huck finish 1-2 in Iowa.

 

[Adamsa]

I just don't see how Huckabee could beat Ron Paul in Iowa.

Judging by Meetup groups, Paul has 4x as many members in Des Moines alone than Huckabee.
Granted, theres the non-affiliated churches that will support Huckabee but I gotta think that Paul will either beat Huckabee or come real close in Iowa.

Not everyone who caucuses is a member of meetup.com. In fact hardly any are.

Be realistic.

 

[LibertyEagle]

Look, I didn't take this thread as negative. I took it as a wake-up call and an attempt at setting expectations for this coming Thursday. We still have 3 1/2 days to do everything humanly possible to get the word out to Iowa. Then, we'll see what happens. Hopefully, we will kick butt. But, if we do not, ARealConservative doesn't want us to get all bummed out. It's really important that we do not, because we have to quickly turn to the next states with as much positivity and effort that we can possibly muster.

Anyway, that's the way I took this thread.

Iowa is important, but it's far from everything.

 

[Ozwest]

This wasn't an inpirational thread. This is countering the unrealistic threads by people that probably have never visited Iowa and think we are the potato state.

3rd place would be great - and is realistic.
1st place would be great - but isn't realistic.

Wow! How astute of you.

I was just thinking... What we need around here is more self-realization of what a useless exercise this. Wouldn't want any positive energy to get a foot-hold would we?

Ever thought about taking up coaching? I hear the Chinese olympic team is taking applications.

 

[Ron Paul Fan]

The people who say that Ron Paul won't do well in Iowa are the ones who said that November 5th would be a disaster and that the $12 million quarter goal was too high. Why believe them? They've been wrong on everything they've said. So why not ask the people who said that November 5th would be a great success and that the $12 million goal would be achievable? I think Paul will surprise in Iowa. And I should know since I'm actually here! Now I need to get out and keep spreading the message! But you guys should keep debating this for another 10 pages. Don't let me down! I look forward to reading it when I get back!!!

 

[Question_Authority]

I agree with your assessment. Unfortunately, I have the same assessment for NH and I have lived here all my life. People in IA and NH expect the CANDIDATE to bust their ass making the rounds, not just the volunteers.

I would not have minded if Paul had chosen one state over the other, because obviously he did not want to put the time in for both states. Many candidates choose one or the other. But what pisses me off is even this late in the game, he is still trying...feebly...to campaign in both states!

Mediocre turnout in both states is garbage. A 1st or 2nd place in one state and a dead last in the other is MUCH better.

Given the difference in campaign donations, he has much more support in NH. He should have just abandoned IA a month ago and put all of his effort into NH. Much smaller state, with just as much clout. Easier to campaign in.

As it is, when he DOES come to NH, it is under the radar screen. No big announcements to his supporters. He doesn't want them mobbing him when he is walking through the streets.

Yeah, that would be horrible, especially for media, to see mobs of Paul supporters following him! Ugh.

Sorry folks, I just don't think this campaign knows how to run in IA or NH. They got him elected in TX, but Paul needs to upgrade his staff to run a national campaign. Fat chance of that though.

 

[LibertyEagle]

Well, that's great news if you think he's going to win, RPF. I hope you are right.

 

[Eric21ND]

But the dem caucuses are looooong. You could "vote and go" at the GOP caucus -
your secret ballot will still get counted even if you don't continue to elect from your precinct to the March county conventions.

I guess we'll see on Thursday . . .

NO! STAY TO ELECT DELEGATES

Stay until after the vote is cast, we can have a landslide victory and have it mean nothing if we don't stay for the delegate elections afterward.

I need to stress the point of staying for delegate election. Dean won 52% of the vote here in Iowa City and all of his people left, then people voted for delegates and he didn't get a single one so it was all for NOTHING!
VERY important!

That was posted earlier. Vote and stay put or its a waste!

 

[tsetsefly]

I agree with your assessment. Unfortunately, I have the same assessment for NH and I have lived here all my life. People in IA and NH expect the CANDIDATE to bust their ass making the rounds, not just the volunteers.

I would not have minded if Paul had chosen one state over the other, because obviously he did not want to put the time in for both states. Many candidates choose one or the other. But what pisses me off is even this late in the game, he is still trying...feebly...to campaign in both states!

Mediocre turnout in both states is garbage. A 1st or 2nd place in one state and a dead last in the other is MUCH better.

Given the difference in campaign donations, he has much more support in NH. He should have just abandoned IA a month ago and put all of his effort into NH. Much smaller state, with just as much clout. Easier to campaign in.

As it is, when he DOES come to NH, it is under the radar screen. No big announcements to his supporters. He doesn't want them mobbing him when he is walking through the streets.

Yeah, that would be horrible, especially for media, to see mobs of Paul supporters following him! Ugh.

Sorry folks, I just don't think this campaign knows how to run in IA or NH. They got him elected in TX, but Paul needs to upgrade his staff to run a national campaign. Fat chance of that though.

and another sobering report...

 

[Derek]

I am seeing way too much optimism concerning Iowa. I think the grass roots has done an outstanding job - mail iowa, sign waves, phone calls, door to door handouts, etc, etc. The grassroots deserves a pat on the back. But we simply aren't going to win this state. I've lived in Iowa my entire life - I've lived in Des Moines, I've lived in Ottumwa. I've spent summers in Bloomfield. I've lived in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Council Bluffs, and Waterloo. I've ridden a bicycle across the state 15 years, hitting most of the small towns in the process. I know this state and I know how the caucus process works. We can't win.

HQ didn't ever have any plans or hopes of winning the state. There are 99 counties in Iowa. How many has the campaign hit? Off of the top of my head, here is the list (I'm sure I'm missing a couple) -

Des Moines - Polk County
Ames - Story County
Fairfield -Jefferson County?
Oskaloosa - Mahaska County?
Pella - Marion
Council Bluffs - Pottawattamie
Cedar Falls - Blackhawk
Cedar Rapids - Linn
Iowa City - Johnson

So, even adding in couple of missed stops - that is 10-11 counties out of 99. Oh - we are probably just missing out on all the small counties though, right? Wrong - the third largest county in the state has been completely avoided so has the fifth and 6th largest counties. The third largest population density in the state has also been completey skipped. To win a caucus it requires a candidate to stump the state and even return two or three times. A caucus requires far more of a time commitment form the voter then a primary does. People don't caucus for a phantom candidate that didn't make a presence in their location.

We have a great chance of getting third - and if this happens it is completely due to the grass roots efforts.

To be fair, I don't think many RP supporters are really expecting Paul to win in Iowa. I've seen some people say he has a chance at second, but most people have said they're hoping Paul will finish a solid third -- and you said he has a great chance of doing that.

So I'm not sure what the problem is here.

 

[SewrRatt]

This is bullcrap. Even if Iowans traditionally only caucus for candidates that visit their area regularly, this does not apply to RP, just as traditional polling does not apply to RP. Can you imagine any RP supporter not caucusing just because he hadn't met the candidate more than 2 times? This is Romney supporter-style voting decision shit.

 

[ARealConservative]

Well, that's great news if you think he's going to win, RPF. I hope you are right.

agreed.

I hope I'm wrong as hell.

I still think a 3rd place finish will shock the nation though.

 

[Ron Paul Fan]

NO! I never said he was going to win! I said he would surprise. Yes, a double digit showing would surprise a lot of people. A 3rd place finish would surprise a lot of people. Finishing 1-2 will be very tough. I think the OP has clarified his point and he's right. Don't get dejected if Romney and Huckabee finish 1-2. 3rd place is nothing to sneeze at going into NH!

 

[Derek]

And by the way, third place would be a great victory for Paul. That means he'd be finishing ahead of Thompson, Giuliani AND McCain and would set him up for a win in New Hampshire.

 

[Voluntaryist]

The people who say that Ron Paul won't do well in Iowa are the ones who said that November 5th would be a disaster and that the $12 million quarter goal was too high. Why believe them?

THEY JUST GOT RWNED!

1st in Iowa
1st in NH

 

[Driftar]

Ron Paul signs are EVERYWHERE in davenport

 

[ARealConservative]

NO! I never said he was going to win! I said he would surprise. Yes, a double digit showing would surprise a lot of people. A 3rd place finish would surprise a lot of people. Finishing 1-2 will be very tough. I think the OP has clarified his point and he's right. Don't get dejected if Romney and Huckabee finish 1-2. 3rd place is nothing to sneeze at going into NH!

It would be impossible for us to not get double digits IMO.

We got 9% in the straw poll when we were supposedly polling 1% in the state.

Now that we are polling around 7% in the state, just don't expect a 63% at the caucus.

 

[wfd40]

HQ strikes again - Paul should have a mob of people following him wherever he goes... rockstar style.

Remember, voting for a president is sorta like voting for that 'wished-for-ideal-of-oneself'.. tons of projecting going on. Why do you all think the MSM-push of losers like clinton et all works?? For the same reasons the captain of the football team usually wins home-coming.

Ron Paul should never ever shy away from a rockstar status.

 

[Ron Paul Fan]

It would be impossible for us to not get double digits IMO.

We got 9% in the straw poll when we were supposedly polling 1% in the state.

Now that we are polling around 7% in the state, just don't expect a 63% at the caucus.

Yeah, I don't think too many people here are expecting a 63% landslide though. I don't really like the straw poll comparison as it was a smaller sample, it didn't even matter, it was held in a centralized location, and there was no Giuliani, Thompson, or McCain. I think Paul will hit double digits and that won't shock us, but it will shock people out there who think Paul is nothing more than a fringe candidate. A 3rd place finish would stun the whole country and set us up well for NH.