The OFFICIAL Iowa predictions thread - NO POLL!

[dblee]

huck 27.02
romney 27.02
ron paul 21.62
mccain 9.9
giuliani 7.2
thompson 7.2

I based this on some rough poll numbers from recent polls and assuming that 75% of Ron Paul supporters show up as opposed to 25% for other candidates.

 

[LinearChaos]

Paul - 97%
Romney - 2%
Huckabee - 1%
McCain - 0%
Thompson - 0%
Giuliani - 0%
Hunter - 0%
Keyes - 0%

consider it an outlier

 

[PubliusPublicola]

Huckabee - 29%
Romney - 24%
Ron Paul - 16%
Mccain - 15%
Thompson - 9%
Giuliani - 7%

 

[ItsTime]

Paul will place 9th...

 

[ronpaulfollower999]

Ron Paul will beat Giuliani and Thompson, possibly McCain in Iowa.

 

[Montana Patriot]

Paul - 25%
Romney - 20%
Huckabee - 20%
McCain - 15
Thompson - 15
Giuliani - 3%
Hunter - 2%
Keyes - 0%

 

[LibertyEagle]

Paul will place 9th...

Well, that's optimistic.

 

[ItsTime]

haha it was a joke. I dont like predictions on placement too much.

Well, that's optimistic.

 

[joshdvm]

Quick question, everybody...

Shortly before the Ames Straw poll there was a fellow on this board who I believe was active politically in Iowa. As I recall, he pointed out that many here, in his view, were being overly-optimistic and urged everyone to be realistic in their expectations. This was based on his first-hand observations regarding the relative strengths of all the campaigns in Iowa prior to that date.

If I remember correctly, I think his view turned out to be more or less on the money, therefore this is the guy whose prediction I would be interested in.

Anyone remember him and if he has offered his recent predictions/views about Iowa?

 

[CJP]

Huckabee 29 %
Romney 28 %
Paul 13 %
McCain 13 %
Thompson 11 %
Giuliani 4 %
Hunter 1 %
Keyes 1 %

 

[jointhefightforfreedom]

Paul 47%
Huck 18%
Romney 15%
McCain 12%
Thompson 5%
Giuliani 3%

 

[PubliusPublicola]

I see Paul in 5th or 6th place. I hope I'm wrong.

I think the American people by and large are stubborn, uninformed, and incapable of serious rational thought outside their occupational specialization.

To add to that, many people here don't seem to appreciate or understand polls. This leads them to make ridiculous allegations such as that pollsters only poll those who have participated in previous primaries, or that they exclude from their GOP polls anyone who didn't vote for Bush in 2004, neither of which is accurate. All reputable polls include first time voters, and no reputable poll is based solely off of 2004 registration rolls.

There are plenty of sources of error and bias in polls, but these are not it.

My prediction in as follows. To add a twist to the numbers, I'm making the assumption that church groups will organize higher than projected turnout for Huckabee, that McCain's support will continue to grow, and that predominately young Paul voters new to the caucus process will fail to turnout.

Huckabee 33%
Romney 27%
McCain 16%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 5%
Other 2%

Interesting.

Your cynicism about young voters may be apt, but we'll see. As somebody pointed out earlier, bad weather could be a determining factor... ironically.

Personally, I expect Giuliani, Hunter and Thompson supporters to start shifting to 2nd choices in Iowa. I think that gives a boost to Romney over Huckabee... with some of those Thompson people going towards Paul.

I easily imagine Paul breaking 10% and reaching upwards of 20% depending on just how many "unexpected" voters show up for him. In real terms, we're talking approx. 10,000 unexpected voters who can swing it from 10 to 20%.

This is very hard to predict, but the possibility is there.

I wouldnt be surprised to see Paul anywhere from 4% to 20%.

 

[Give me liberty]

Paul 40%
McCain 30%
Romney 20%
Thompson 17%
Giuliani 9%


Other way is this
Romney 32%
Paul 30%
McCain 29%

Well thats how i think its going to happen.

And yes we can hope Ron Paul might win a second place
second isn't so bad.

 

[Alex]

Random guess from me!

Huckabee: 33%
Romney: 30%
Paul: 14%
McCain: 10%
Thompson: 8%
Giuliani: 4%
Other (Hunter/Keyes/Cox/Et cetera): 2%

 

[MrOblivious]

I'm tellin ya, RP is gonna take it.

Its going to be very close, but Ron is gonna take number 1. I think we're underestimating his power there.

My Prediction:

1. Paul 26%
2. Huckabee 24%
3. Romney 20%
4. Giuliani 14%
5. McCain 8%
6. Thompson 6%
7. Other 2%

 

[goldstandard]

Romney 28%
Huckabee 22%
Paul 17%
McCain 12%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
Keyes 2%
Hunter 1%

 

[Dary]

Ron Paul 25%
Huckabee 23%
Romney 20%
McCain 14%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 2%

 

[Joby]

Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Thompson
Paul
Guiliani
Hunter

Hate to be pessimistic.

Now Go Out and Prove Me Wrong!

 

[Trance Dance Master]

Shortly before the Ames Straw poll there was a fellow on this board who I believe was active politically in Iowa. As I recall, he pointed out that many here, in his view, were being overly-optimistic and urged everyone to be realistic in their expectations. This was based on his first-hand observations regarding the relative strengths of all the campaigns in Iowa prior to that date.

If I remember correctly, I think his view turned out to be more or less on the money, therefore this is the guy whose prediction I would be interested in.

Anyone remember him and if he has offered his recent predictions/views about Iowa?

The campaigns of the other candidates peaked prematurely. Ron Paul walked away from Ames in August the clear winner as far as how many motivated, enthusiastic, active, and effective recruiters he had on his side working for him. And at that time, the other candidates had spent way more money there and it was obvious they began emulating him to an even greater degree.

Huckabee's big motivational message to go to the Caucus:

http://www.ktka.com/news/2007/dec/31/huckabee_warns_boring_orange_bowl/

"The Orange Bowl will be boring anyway"

And let's not forget Romney's passionate appeal to get potential voters to the Caucus:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/12/13/513775.aspx

“And now I need you guys,” he said, launching into his conclusion. “I need you on one day to give one hour. On one day I need you to go out on Jan. 3rd. And I know there’s going to be the Orange Bowl on, I mean, who wants to get away from the Orange Bowl? There’s going to be the Orange Bowl."

Neither of these guys has a man like the Drew Ivers inspiring their constituency in Iowa:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wo7G6j6bi4

Is it realistic to think Romney or Huckabee will get first? No, that is a very unrealistic prediction. Those guys look very desperate. The rest seem to have completely capitulated by this point.

 

[ThePieSwindler]

Anyone predicting Paul to finish BELOW the polls is a fucking idiot. A mid-teens prediction is the most accurate, i think, with McCain and thompson just behind, but anyone predicting Ron Paul finsihing below 4th is actually being less realistic than the people predicting him in third or second.

I base these facts on a few factors. First, polls have in tied essentially with thompson, and slightly below mccain. However, according to many Iowans who have posted on here, McCain's support is "soft", and even Romney's support has a strong core with alot of other somewhat "undecided" voters. Most of those undecided voters will tend towards Huckabee if not Romney, so i think the only help it would give Paul is perhaps moving Romney closer, so that if there is somehow an even higher number than this for Paul, he MIGHT have a shot at second, at the expense of huckabee running away with the thing.

There is an outside shot at 2nd, with 4th being slightly more likely than 2nd, but i think 3rd being by far the most likely possibility. I'd say the chance at 1st is near zero, barring some miracle and some very very odd circumstances, which won't happen. 2nd is likely because there is a chance of Huckabee perhaps taking alot of romney votes, but that makes it alot harder for Paul to come in 1st, and alot easier for him to come in 2nd.

My guess:

Huckabee 32%
Romney 25%
Paul 16%
Thompson 11%
McCain 8%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 1%