The OFFICIAL Iowa predictions thread - NO POLL!

[zaffa]

Huckabee 27%
Romney 24%
Ron Paul 16%
McCain 15%
Guliani 13%
Thompson 5%

 

[TheWhiteRider]

i got two predictions:

either Ron Paul sweeps this in a landslide (which I think is actually very likely) or something like

Romney
Huckabee
Paul
McCain
Thompson
Giulinai (or however the crap you spell his name)
Hunter
Keyes

and ROmney and Huckabees spots are interchangable

 

[BrazilLuLa]

The Most Likely Scenario

Huckabee - 28%
Romney - 26%
Paul - 15% - He is The X Factor - Paul could go from 10-20%
Mccain - 13%
Thompson - 9%
Guiliani - 7%
Others - 2%

 

[jsteilKS]

Huckabee 25%
Romney 23%
Paul 17%
McCain 13%
Thompson 11%
Giuliani 9%
Hunter 1%
Others 1%

what will be reported the next day by the MSM

Huckabee 25%
Romney 23%
McCain 13%
Thompson 11%
Giuliani 9%
Hunter 1%
Others 18%

 

[thechitowncubs]

I am in Iowa for the Christmas Vacation

Realistically, 3rd Place

Optimisticly, 2nd Place

Romney 1st, Huckabee 2nd/3rd

 

[MLC]

I think RP will get 3rd to 4th in Iowa, and 1st or 2nd in NH. NH is the better bet of the two given its independent leanings.

 

[trey4sports]

I think RP will get 3rd to 4th in Iowa, and 1st or 2nd in NH. NH is the better bet of the two given its independent leanings.

yeah i here this alot however people dont take into account the fact that the higher turnout rate in NH (44%) compared to much much lower turnout nationwide hurts us because the other candidates who have apathetic supporters end up voting and our strong turnout rate is marginalized

 

[jabrownie]

The Jabrownie Forecast

Huck 27%
Romney 24%
McCain 15%
Paul 13%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 1%

 

[american2]

Huckabee 34%
Paul 19%
Romney 19%
McCain 10%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 3%
Keyes 2%

 

[Suzu]

Romney 24%
Paul 22%
Huck 21%
McCain 13%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 3%
Keyes 2%

 

[Chadd Murray]

I see Paul in 5th or 6th place. I hope I'm wrong.

I think the American people by and large are stubborn, uninformed, and incapable of serious rational thought outside their occupational specialization.

To add to that, many people here don't seem to appreciate or understand polls. This leads them to make ridiculous allegations such as that pollsters only poll those who have participated in previous primaries, or that they exclude from their GOP polls anyone who didn't vote for Bush in 2004, neither of which is accurate. All reputable polls include first time voters, and no reputable poll is based solely off of 2004 registration rolls.

There are plenty of sources of error and bias in polls, but these are not it.

My prediction in as follows. To add a twist to the numbers, I'm making the assumption that church groups will organize higher than projected turnout for Huckabee, that McCain's support will continue to grow, and that predominately young Paul voters new to the caucus process will fail to turnout.

Huckabee 33%
Romney 27%
McCain 16%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 5%
Other 2%

Nah I'd put paul at more like 9-12%, probably 12. But I think you're fairly close/realistic unlike most people on this forum.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

McCain's adviser (Graham) defacto conceded Paul is going to beat McCain, so he has to be higher. Since almost all agree Thompson, Giuliani, Keyes and Hunter will do worse than McCain, they go to the bottom. Based on intel I got from meetup people in Iowa this weekend indicating Paul has massively underreported organizational strength, I believe Paul will finish no lower than second. So my best guess is:

Huckabee - 27%
Paul - 24%
Romney- 22%
McCain - 14%
Thompson - 8%
Giuliani - 4%
Others - 1%

 

[me3]

I'm just praying for good results.

Looking for Paul to finish 3rd or better. If by some miracle we finished first, it would be a sign.

 

[Jimmy]

I feel he is going to have a good finish...Sadly...I also look for the media to attack RP afterwards in a BIG type way....I hope I'm right on the first and wrong about the second.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

Group Average Through Post 73

This should have been a poll, but my rough math (based on people posting actual percentages for at least five candidates, or endorsing previous posters' estimates) yields the following consensus about Iowa:

Huckabee - 24.72%
Romney- 22.96%
Paul - 21.09%
McCain - 12.98%
Thompson - 11.26%
Others - <7%

Again, my own prediction is:

Huckabee - 27%
Paul - 24%
Romney- 22%
McCain - 14%
Thompson - 8%
Giuliani - 4%
Others - 1%

Either way, it seems we preponderantly think Paul will safely be in the top three.

 

[RichardC]

McCain's adviser (Graham) defacto conceded Paul is going to beat McCain, so he has to be higher. Since almost all agree Thompson, Giuliani, Keyes and Hunter will do worse than McCain, they go to the bottom. Based on intel I got from meetup people in Iowa this weekend indicating Paul has massively underreported organizational strength, I believe Paul will finish no lower than second.

I'd have to go with this line of thinking. RP getting 20% will either be conservative or right on the money. However, I don't believe Romney or Huckabee have any real supporters. Its all manufactured by the media and by their campaigns.

So in light of all this, unless the election is rigged (and it very well could be) I'm expecting RP in the 30-ish% area. Nobody pulls in supporter money like RP.

Paul 33%
Romney 24%
Huck 21%
McCain 13%
Thompson 4%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 0%

Paul will demonstrate the power of actual voters who are able to ignore the naysayers and spin masters. Romney will skate by on money, 'electability', and his pretty boy looks. Huck gets votes based on manufactured media image, 'electability' and the anti-romney/anti-giuliani crowd. McCain gets the rest of any serious percentage based on (once again) manufactured media image (the comeback kid) and name recognition. Iowa wants Thompson, Giuliani, Hunter or Keyes to be president like they want a sharp stick in the eye.

He will pull 40%+ in NH.

 

[daviddee]

...

 

[dt_]

But Fred wasn't in the race yet, and McCain didn't really have a large presence in Iowa at that point.

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

To add to that, many people here don't seem to appreciate or understand polls.

I guess John Zogby doesn't appreciate or understand polls.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=866

All reputable polls include first time voters, and no reputable poll is based solely off of 2004 registration rolls.

"First, we ask about voting history and only include those who say they vote all of the time or most of the time."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...sidential_election/iowa/iowa_caucus_screening

But Fred wasn't in the race yet, and McCain didn't really have a large presence in Iowa at that point.

And Paul hadn't shattered fundraising records yet.

Anyway, my predictions are:

Huckabee 24%
Paul 21
Romney 20
McCain 15
Thompson 12
Giuliani 6
Hunter/Other 2

McCain is rising at Romney's expense, and as people give Huck a second look Thompson will benefit. A combination of hidden support and high turnout among his base will give Dr. Paul a surprise second place.

 

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

bump