The OFFICIAL Iowa predictions thread - NO POLL!

[Prez4TheNet]

I see Paul in 5th or 6th place. I hope I'm wrong.

I think the American people by and large are stubborn, uninformed, and incapable of serious rational thought outside their occupational specialization.

To add to that, many people here don't seem to appreciate or understand polls. This leads them to make ridiculous allegations such as that pollsters only poll those who have participated in previous primaries, or that they exclude from their GOP polls anyone who didn't vote for Bush in 2004, neither of which is accurate. All reputable polls include first time voters, and no reputable poll is based solely off of 2004 registration rolls.

There are plenty of sources of error and bias in polls, but these are not it.

My prediction in as follows. To add a twist to the numbers, I'm making the assumption that church groups will organize higher than projected turnout for Huckabee, that McCain's support will continue to grow, and that predominately young Paul voters new to the caucus process will fail to turnout.

Huckabee 33%
Romney 27%
McCain 16%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 5%
Other 2%

You have it right on the money. I know we are a tireless and enthusiastic minority but we need to realize that Paul's message is not going to make an impact in this election. Maybe the next one or the one after if we keep up the fervor of this movement.

 

[Jodi]

Ron Paul 38%
Huckabee 21%
Romney 15%
McCain 12%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%

 

[JustAnotherV]

RP 3rd, 12-14%

It's useless to try to project all of them... I think we are in a battle for 3rd place with Thompson and McCain, maybe Rudy if his polling is off.

I am pegging RP at ~12-14% assuming he gets a solid turnout from his motivated and allegedly under-polled following.

If we get 3rd with that, after Mitt and Huck (who I am calling as 1-2), I'd be happy. We might have a chance of beating Huck in NH and ? in SC/NV/MI making us at least as legit as they are going into Feb 5th.


If I am wrong because we do better I'll be happy anyway...

 

[ladyliberty3]

Romney 25%
Paul 21%
huck 20%
<cCain 12%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 4%

 

[Joey Wahoo]

In a suprising upset:

Ron Paul 100%

 

[aknappjr]

Ron Paul 3rd in Iowa

 

[Carole]

After hearing how ridiculous the caucus is for democrats (like a game) I can only wonder at the results.

After hearing that the Republicans will vote secret ballots and only number of delegates will be made public and votes will be kept secret, I can only imagine the myriad ways this can be manipulated in Iowa.

After hearing that Iowa politics is allegedly quite corrupt, I do not wonder at anything.

The results will closely mirror the polls.

Any thoughts?

 

[Tratzman]

From my northeast Iowa perspective:

Huckleberry 27
Rommel 22
RP 19
McCain 13
Thompson 11
Ghoul 7
Hunter 1

The passion for bringing in friends and family to the caucus will propel RP to a strong finish. I gave out 8 new voter registrations at work today to new RP supporters. Trust me, we'll get enough out there to finish at least a strong third.

 

[Birdlady]

Without Voter Fraud
Ron Paul 28%
Romney 22%
Huckabee 19%
McCain 15%
Thompson 9%


With Voter Fraud
Huckabee 26%
Romney 24%
Paul 19%
McCain 17%
Thompson 9%

The sick thing is that a lot of us are putting Huckabee at the top even though he is a joke. That's what a bias media does in this country.

edit: I guess I left out rudy lol That was wishful thinking. Oh well!

 

[RP-Republican]

Paul 25%
Romney 24%
Huck 18%
McCain 11%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 2%

 

[Joey Wahoo]

From my northeast Iowa perspective:

Huckleberry 27
Rommel 22
RP 19
McCain 13
Thompson 11
Ghoul 7
Hunter 1

The passion for bringing in friends and family to the caucus will propel RP to a strong finish. I gave out 8 new voter registrations at work today to new RP supporters. Trust me, we'll get enough out there to finish at least a strong third.

Your post has made my day Tratzman! You are on the frontline of the first battle of the revolution. Best wishes to you and all the RP Iowans!

 

[AFM]

Romney 27
Paul 23
Huckabee 21
McCain11%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 0%

 

[nimo]

Romney 27%
Huckabee 24%
Paul 22%

 

[Starwind]

Huckabee - 25%
Thompson - 19%
Paul - 17%
Romney - 15%
McCain - 14%
Giuliani - 8%
Hunter - 2%

 

[islather]

Romney 22%
Huckabee 21%
McCain 17%
Paul 16%
Thompson 14%
Giuliani 7%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 1%

 

[austin356]

I can't really see how you guys are putting exact numbers... instead of that, try approximates to make your addition easier

IOWA:
30% - Mike Huckabee
20% - Ron Paul
(20%) 15% - Mitt Romney
(10%) 15% - Fred Thompson
10% - John McCain
10% - Rudy Giuliani
Comments: Huckabee owns Iowa, period.

New Hampshire:
35% - Mitt Romney
25% - Ron Paul
15% - John McCain
10% - Rudy Giuliani
10% - Mike Huckabee
05% - Fred Thompson
Comments: Romney owns NH, McCain's support is overblown; (NH's Republican race depends more on Obama's Iowa showing than commonly thought).

After First Two Primaries:
25.0% - Mitt Romney: 15%/35%
22.5% - Ron Paul: 20%/25%
20.0% - Mike Huckabee: 10%/30%
12.5% - John McCain: 10%/15%
10.0% - Rudy Giuliani: 10%/10%
10.0% - Fred Thompson: 15%/5%

I am convinced the race will come down to Romney vs Paul vs Huckabee. The other candidates stand no chance.

exactly. Only changes I would make are in Red.

 

[austin356]

Everyone keeps overrating Thompson.

 

[The Lantern]

Paul 52%
Romney 14%
Huckabee 13%
McCain 10%
Thompson 7%
Keyes 3%
Giuliani 1%
-------------------------------

EXPECT PAULTARDS TO SPAM THE POLLS!

I hope you are right.

 

[The Lantern]

My Predictions

24%--Romney
22%--Huckabee
21%--Ron Paul
14%--McCain
10%--Thompson
08%--Giuliani

 

[paulitics]

Huck 30%
Romney 25%
Ron Paul 15%
Fred Thompson 15%
McCain 8%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 1%
Keys 1%