The OFFICIAL Iowa predictions thread - NO POLL!

[RonPaulJunkie]

Huck 25%
Paul 15%
Romney 21%
McCain 14%
Thompson 11%
Giuliani 13%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 0%

 

[Forefall]

I can't really see how you guys are putting exact numbers... instead of that, try approximates to make your addition easier

IOWA:
30% - Mike Huckabee
20% - Ron Paul
15% - Mitt Romney
15% - Fred Thompson
10% - John McCain
10% - Rudy Giuliani
Comments: Huckabee owns Iowa, period.

New Hampshire:
35% - Mitt Romney
25% - Ron Paul
15% - John McCain
10% - Rudy Giuliani
10% - Mike Huckabee
05% - Fred Thompson
Comments: Romney owns NH, McCain's support is overblown.

After First Two Primaries:
25.0% - Mitt Romney: 15%/35%
22.5% - Ron Paul: 20%/25%
20.0% - Mike Huckabee: 10%/30%
12.5% - John McCain: 10%/15%
10.0% - Rudy Giuliani: 10%/10%
10.0% - Fred Thompson: 15%/5%

I am convinced the race will come down to Romney vs Paul vs Huckabee. The other candidates stand no chance.

 

[chinaCat]

I'm not going to put out my guess, but I'd be interested if anyone who lives/or has been spending time in iowa to say as much when they give their predictions.

 

[priest_of_syrinx]

Huck 25%
Romney 22%
Paul 15%
Thompson 14%
McCain 12%
Giuliani 8%
Other 4%

 

[itshappening]

I think Huckabee and his christian fans will just edge Mitt and his highly organized well oiled machine

Huckabee: 29%
Mitt Romney: 25%
Ron Paul: 20%
Thompson: 11%
McCain: 8%
Guiliani 5%
Hunter: 1%
Keyes: 1%

 

[Original_Intent]

/bump. I'm putting this all in a spreadsheet here at work. Keep 'em coming!

 

[born2drv]

Huckabee 28%
Paul 21%
Romney 18%
McCain 15%
Giuliani 9%
Thompson 6%
Hunter 3%
Keyes 0%

 

[RTsquared]

Time for my WAG(s):

If there is decent weather for the caucuses:

Romney 24%
Huckabee 22%
Paul 17%
McCain 14%
Thompson 12%
Giuliani 9%
Hunter 1%
Others 1%

If there is horrid weather:

Paul 27%
Huckabee 23%
Romney 18%
McCain 16%
Giuliani 11%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 1%
Others 1%

Bonus points: The story out of Iowa will be...the rejuvenation of the McCain campaign.

 

[Josh]

Huck - 26%
Romeny - 22%
Paul - 16%
McCain - 12%
Thompson - 11%
Giuliani - 8%

 

[Luther]

I predict over 20 percent for Ron Paul.

 

[Original_Intent]

I predict over 20 percent for Ron Paul.

c'mon be more specific! Percentages for all the candidates!

 

[skinzterpswizfan]

Romney - 27%
Huckabee - 25%
Paul - 18%
McCain - 10%
Thompson - 9%
Giuliani - 8%
Hunter - 2%
Keyes - 1%

 

[trey4sports]

i wish i could tell everyone that we were going to come in first but we still dont have the name recognition nor have we spent the money needed. thats ok though, its all about super tuesday.

Huck 28%
Romney 23%
McCain 18%
Paul 17%
Thompson 7%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 1%

 

[FreedomLover]

After Huckabee's Hypocritical Breakdown today, I have to change my numbers and give Romney the win.

Romney 29%

Huckabee 27%

Ron Paul 15%

Thompson 12%

McCain 11%

Giuliani 5%

Hunter 1%

 

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Romney 33%
Huckabee 27%
Thompson 12%
Paul 10%
McCain 10%
Giuliani 5%
Keyes 2%
Hunter 1%

 

[newbitech]

Huckabee 33%

Romney 21%

Paul 20%

McCain 14%

Thompson 5%

Giuliani 5%

Hunter 1%

Keyes 1%

 

[Noleader]

Ron Paul - 21%
Huckabee - 20%
Romney - 17%
Thompson - 17%
McCain - 10%
Giuliani - 10%
Hunter - 5%

Something tells me Huck and Paul are going to be very close... McCain is going to have a bad showing and if that happens it will only add to Pauls numbers in NH.

 

[d991]

Romney - 26%
Huckabee - 24%
Thompson - 15%
Paul - 12%
McCain - 12%
Giuliani - 6%
Keyes - 4%
Hunter - 1%

Anyone who is predicting Ron Paul to place 1st or 2nd is way too idealistic. We all love Ron Paul but getting your hopes up that he could possibly place 1/2 in IOWA is probably just going to make you angry and get your hopes up.
I think he could place a solid third and if so, people should be very pleased with that result. Just ask people in Iowa. There are numerous posts on these forums by people in Iowa who say 3rd is about as high as they predict he'll get.

 

[ChickenHawk]

Hucky-32
Romney-24
Ron Paul-15
Thompson-13
McCain-10
Guiliani-6
Hunter-<1
Keyes-<1

That's my best guess but I have a feeling it won't look anything like that.

 

[dircha]

I see Paul in 5th or 6th place. I hope I'm wrong.

I think the American people by and large are stubborn, uninformed, and incapable of serious rational thought outside their occupational specialization.

To add to that, many people here don't seem to appreciate or understand polls. This leads them to make ridiculous allegations such as that pollsters only poll those who have participated in previous primaries, or that they exclude from their GOP polls anyone who didn't vote for Bush in 2004, neither of which is accurate. All reputable polls include first time voters, and no reputable poll is based solely off of 2004 registration rolls.

There are plenty of sources of error and bias in polls, but these are not it.

My prediction in as follows. To add a twist to the numbers, I'm making the assumption that church groups will organize higher than projected turnout for Huckabee, that McCain's support will continue to grow, and that predominately young Paul voters new to the caucus process will fail to turnout.

Huckabee 33%
Romney 27%
McCain 16%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 5%
Other 2%