The Media Lies! This WILL be a BROKERED CONVENTION!

[fabijo]

As long as the GOP National Convention is not done and over with, anyone telling us we have no chance is no friend of mine.

Some of the posts that you responded harshly to never said that there is no chance. When someone says that about 80% of the delegates are bound on the first ballot, that is just a fact. The point is that we still don't know. There may or may not be a brokered convention. I really hope there will be. Nobody can say for sure that there will not be a brokered convention. Also, nobody can say for sure that there will be a brokered convention.

I say we keep pushing for delegates either way. If there is a brokered convention, awesome! If there is not a brokered convention, at least we already put a crack in the GOP establishment. Keep pushing for more positions in the GOP and keep changing the platform one precinct at a time.

 

[PaulTriumph]

As long as the GOP National Convention is not done and over with, anyone telling us we have no chance is no friend of mine.

At the end of the day (or at least as of 6:30pm Central on 2/11/07), that message is still front and center on ronpaul2008.com. Even if RP himself didn't write it, he approved it and hasn't seen any reason to refute or remove it. At first I wondered if it was a mistake (especially given its timing, a day before a crucial primary we almost won). But it's still the message of Ron Paul and his campaign and those who take him seriously should take his words seriously.

I'm inclined to take the man at his word. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see him pull out a strategy to continue to challenge for the White House. But as it stands now, he says that the chances are "nearly zero". That doesn't mean he can't still be your friend, but it's disingenuous to assume he's hiding something and hope that he'll go against his own words.

What he DID do is to encourage us to take as many delegates as possible to the convention and fight on, not for the nomination, but "for our ideas". He is not the type to tilt at windmills- this man has been a professional in elections for decades. He has surveyed the field and has determined that the best chance for victory lies not in the White House this year, but in the ongoing struggle for the movement. And he encourages us to join him.

 

[Avalon]

a day before a crucial primary we almost won.

Actually, we won the most delegates to the county conventions in WA so we did win the caucuses. It doesn't matter if the GOP refuses to release the results or the media refuses to find out and report it.

 

[PaulTriumph]

Actually, we won the most delegates to the county conventions in WA so we did win the caucuses. It doesn't matter if the GOP refuses to release the results or the media refuses to find out and report it.

Well, that's a good point- I guess I'm still smarting from the timing of the message and thinking about what could have been. I wish we could win a state (or states!) by such a large margin that the GOP and media can't ignore the results...

 

[HenryKnoxFineBooks]

What isn't realistic is, "The Media Lies! This WILL be a BROKERED CONVENTION," when in fact, that is certainly not the case. Those out you who are so sure of this are welcome to go bet on the brokered convention at intrade where you will receive $20 for every $1 bet.

And the guy said, "Who then for the most part must vote according to the results of this popularity contest. Come on guys, we've been over this. 80+% of the delegates are bound for the first vote."

The number is 75.5%, so he was off there, but certaintly much closer than the less than 50% you see around this board. For this you wonder if he is voting for Ron Paul.

Using this information, doest it mean that McCain may(perhaps,maybe,possibly,) actually need more than 1191 to ensure the nomination. If only 75% are bound in the first round, that means up to 25% may defect. Sooo, up to 300 may defect, so now he needs approx. 1500 to ensure.

Thanks, you have given me even more hope of a brokered convention.

 

[Bradley in DC]

Hmm, confused.

One post somewhere said that more delegates were unbound to bound (something like 60% to 40%), as a backdoor to avoid nominating a loser.

Now, it's 70% delegates being bound on the first ballot.

Where would one go to verify this?

Most of the rumors out there are false (including those from HQ); here is a summary of the good info:
http://www.gop.com/images/Press_State_Summaries.pdf

 

[fabijo]

Most of the rumors out there are false (including those from HQ); here is a summary of the good info:
http://www.gop.com/images/Press_State_Summaries.pdf

Yup. what he said. That's the paper I use immediately when I want to find out if a state's delegates are bound/unbound or when the delegates are actually chosen.

 

[HenryKnoxFineBooks]

Most of the rumors out there are false (including those from HQ); here is a summary of the good info:
http://www.gop.com/images/Press_State_Summaries.pdf

Good info here. Didnt realize Penn. and NC had unbound delegates. hint, hint.

 

[JordanQ72]

Using this information, doest it mean that McCain may(perhaps,maybe,possibly,) actually need more than 1191 to ensure the nomination. If only 75% are bound in the first round, that means up to 25% may defect. Sooo, up to 300 may defect, so now he needs approx. 1500 to ensure.

Thanks, you have given me even more hope of a brokered convention.

No. It's the difference between bound and unbound delegates. If he has 1191 bound delegates, he's set. Unbound is also a dubious term in most cases as there are traditions as to how some unbound delegates vote, it's why these scenarios where he gets 0 unbound delegates vote for him is so nonsensical. For example, the 3 RNC delegates per state by tradition simply vote with the majority of their state.

 

[hvac ak47]

No. It's the difference between bound and unbound delegates. If he has 1191 bound delegates, he's set. Unbound is also a dubious term in most cases as there are traditions as to how some unbound delegates vote, it's why these scenarios where he gets 0 unbound delegates vote for him is so nonsensical. For example, the 3 RNC delegates per state by tradition simply vote with the majority of their state.

Come on!! What do you suggest we do? Ron said he is still fighting for every vote and delegate he can get! Every Ron Paul supporter should be fighting for the same thing! What do you suggest and if you think its over why are you here??

 

[JordanQ72]

Come on!! What do you suggest we do?

Come up with a plausible strategy.

Why am I here? On the off chance someone DOES find some sort of sensible strategy to fly with. No, I don't have one. I've looked at the numbers, and it's extremely unlikely from my perspective. Every single other poster who has ever laid out the numbers for themselves has come to the same conclusions and been resoundingly called a troll and other bullshit.

All I see is unsourced pie in the sky numbers and delusional fairy tale scenarios. I'm calling people out on them because they'll get us nowhere. I'm trying to apply some grounding in the hopes someone does come up with a workable idea. If everyone here just falls into some sort of faulty groupthink that all the primaries so far are somehow meaningless and every unbound delegate is somehow going to vote against McCain, then we'll definitely lose.

One sensible idea I've seen around here is pushing Paul's vote being Huckabee in Virginia. Of course, this was met with all sorts of moaning and bitching when it's actually an idea that could help lead to a brokered convention.

 

[mikeycapz]

On cnn a few minutes ago they were showing graphs how it is impossible for Huckabee to catch McCain and they showed McCain with 873 delegates hahaa. They said if Huckabee wins every state left he still wont win. We all no McCain don't got no 873 delegates lol. I honestly think he has less than 700 and cnn's website shows him with something like 716.

 

[affa]

But as it stands now, he says that the chances are "nearly zero". That doesn't mean he can't still be your friend, but it's disingenuous to assume he's hiding something and hope that he'll go against his own words.

I was not talking about Ron Paul, nor did I indicate he should go against his own words.

 

[JordanQ72]

On cnn a few minutes ago they were showing graphs how it is impossible for Huckabee to catch McCain and they showed McCain with 873 delegates hahaa. They said if Huckabee wins every state left he still wont win. We all no McCain don't got no 873 delegates lol. I honestly think he has less than 700 and cnn's website shows him with something like 716.

The count on CNN's main page is a highly conservative estimate for the delegate totals. McCain could break 1000 delegates tomorrow in an even odds estimate as opposed to their 99.9% likelihood estimate.

 

[jp5065]

Using this information, doest it mean that McCain may(perhaps,maybe,possibly,) actually need more than 1191 to ensure the nomination. If only 75% are bound in the first round, that means up to 25% may defect. Sooo, up to 300 may defect, so now he needs approx. 1500 to ensure.

Thanks, you have given me even more hope of a brokered convention.

no

He still needs 1191 delegates, whether they are bound or unbound doesn't mean anything. He just has to have 1191 delegates vote for him at the convention.

Right now he has about 700 delegates bound to vote for him in at least the first ballot. Some are bound for longer.

 

[BlueCalico]

THE CONVENTION DOES NOT HAVE TO BE BROKERED! We can overturn Rules at the State Conventions. Google - [your state] Republican Convention. Look for your state information at ronpaul2008.com, States.

STUDY and LEARN!