The Hill's assessment of Rand Paul's chances

[acptulsa]

I don't get the doom and gloom here.

No?

The two people shoveling it out have post histories. Look them up and see if you find anything there but doom and gloom.

 

[SilentBull]

Are people forgetting what Rand did in 2010? Have we forgotten the brilliant ads the campaign came up with? His awesome debate performances? How he crushed the establishment when many thought Grayson would be able to rig the vote count?

We haven't had a single debate, or a single ad yet, and many think Rand is done? Ludicrous. Most voters aren't even paying attention right now, yet Rand is in the top 4!!!! Without doing any serious campaigning yet.

The CAV PAC has 40 full time people working to help Rand in Iowa. Ron got 21% there. I think Rand can add another 10% to that. Rand has crushed the establishment before, and he can do it again! Rand can win Iowa. And I think it's possible that it won't even be close. The 2nd place candidate could be 7 points behind. That's what I see happening. And once he does that, there's no way he doesn't win New Hampshire. And once he does that, Bush cannot win, because he will be seen as weak, and those who are voting for him simply because they think he's the one, will drop him. A recent poll showed Rand is the 2nd choice for many Bush supporters. Rand can WIN!

 

[AuH20]

I really see Rand's fall as a missed opportunity. Now he can be ignored in the back of the pack. If he was at the top, they would be forced to deal with him.

 

[acptulsa]

I really see Rand's fall as a missed opportunity. Now he can be ignored in the back of the pack. If he was at the top, they would be forced to deal with him.

Did you sleep through the whole of 2012? Do you not recall when the powers that be figured out Ron Paul was about to win the Louisiana caucuses, so they combined all the other candidates into a 'family values coalition'? Do you really not remember...

Oh, it's you. Never mind. You've been forecasting doom here for six years now, when you weren't crowing and bragging on our worst days, and haven't made a lick of sense yet. By your fruits do we know you.

I'll stop wasting my breath and just leave this here...

 

[timosman]

We live in a world where Supreme Court justices are being blackmailed and we're freaking worried about maintaining decorum in the eyes of the CIA run media?

 

[AuH20]

Did you sleep through the whole of 2012? Do you not recall when the powers that be figured out Ron Paul was about to win the Louisiana caucuses, so they combined all the other candidates into a 'family values coalition'? Do you really not remember...

Oh, it's you. Never mind. You've been forecasting doom here for six years now, when you weren't crowing and bragging on our worst days, and haven't made a lick of sense yet. By your fruits do we know you.

I'll stop wasting my breath and just leave this here...

To use horse racing lexicon, Rand's campaign was built to be a pacesetter out near the front. It was imperative for him to not be dragged down with the pack of lower profile candidates. This mere association leads to marginalization and a subsequent media blackout. He's not going to be able to jump over Walker, Bush, Rubio or Trump with the meager resource base that he has. There will be too much ground to cover and the variability with those other 4 candidates is a concern.

 

[acptulsa]

To use horse racing lexicon, Rand's campaign was built to be a pacesetter out near the front. It was imperative for him to not be dragged down with the pack of also ran low profile candidates. This mere association leads to marginalization and a subsequent media blackout.

To use horse racing lexicon, using horse racing lexicon is a non-starter.

Rand Paul's plan was to kiss establishment ass just enough that he could start the race with just enough name recognition that we didn't have to resort to buying him a blimp in order to stop hearing, 'Rand Who?' It worked.

We'll get him in the debates, and when we do, this Fox Candidate of the Month Club stretch of idiocy will cease to mean a damned thing. And we're going to do it no matter how many people sit around in our house crying, and whining, and predicting doom and gloom.

The Angels of Severe Depression won't slow us down a bit. Ain't nothing but comic relief.

 

[AuH20]

To use horse racing lexicon, using horse racing lexicon is a non-starter.

Rand Paul's plan was to kiss establishment ass just enough that he could start the race with just enough name recognition that we didn't have to resort to buying him a blimp in order to stop hearing, 'Rand Who?' It worked.

We'll get him in the debates, and when we do, this Fox Candidate of the Month Club stretch of idiocy will cease to mean a damned thing. And we're going to do it no matter how many people sit around in our house crying, and whining, and predicting doom and gloom.

The Angels of Severe Depression won't slow us down a bit. Ain't nothing but comic relief.

Optimism is warranted in certain situations, but you're expecting Rand to jump over 4 other candidates with (a) hostile media coverage (b) a muddled message (c) without any whale donors? I'm sorry for being Debbie Downer, when I'm skeptical at current landscape.

DISCLAIMER:
(No one should be deterred by my dire analysis. You fight the good fight regardless of the cards that have been dealt)

 

[timosman]

To use horse racing lexicon, using horse racing lexicon is a non-starter.

Rand Paul's plan was to kiss establishment ass just enough that he could start the race with just enough name recognition that we didn't have to resort to buying him a blimp in order to stop hearing, 'Rand Who?' It worked.

It did ? This establishment, you keep talking about, sounds like a bunch of fools !

 

[eleganz]

All Rand had to do was cruise to the debates with those previous strong polling numbers.

And how did you expect Rand to "cruise" to the debates? He has to create his own media to stay relevant, if he simply put on the cruise control he probably would've lost support by disappearing from the national discussion.

But it doesn't matter with you, you already think he lost.


EDIT: Forget it, this was moved to SPIN, you guys have fun spinning in circles about this.

 

[Maltheus]

Rand will win Colorado

No he won't. His recent visit shows that he doesn't understand the state at all. You don't go to Denver to meet with the hippies, you go to El Paso county to build your cred with the party you're running in. Granted, it's neocon central down here, but that's where the fight is, if you're serious about the nomination.

Rand's main problem is that he's been running for the general, before doing the much harder work of securing the nomination. And now with Trump seeming to lock down the anti-establishment crowd, it would take a miracle for Rand to get that momentum back. I'm just hoping he makes the debates. Depending on what polls they pick, I can see Fox easily excluding him (with nobody but us raising an eyebrow).

At this point, I think he needs to revert to an educational campaign, like his dad. It won't get him any closer to the nomination, but it would at least help the cause a little.

 

[Jan2017]

Uh, that was not a campaign stop . . . it was a fund-raising event.

Rand didn't go to Denver to meet the hippies, he went to Denver to meet the millionaires.

The dynamics to win states like Colorado and California GOP caucus/primary delegates is already there.

Regardless of polling now, no one is really even paying attention yet -maybe let's all see how Rand does in debates . . .
I think Dr. Paul will rock them all then . . . less than four weeks ?

 

[CPUd]

No he won't. His recent visit shows that he doesn't understand the state at all. You don't go to Denver to meet with the hippies, you go to El Paso county to build your cred with the party you're running in. Granted, it's neocon central down here, but that's where the fight is, if you're serious about the nomination.

Rand's main problem is that he's been running for the general, before doing the much harder work of securing the nomination. And now with Trump seeming to lock down the anti-establishment crowd, it would take a miracle for Rand to get that momentum back. I'm just hoping he makes the debates. Depending on what polls they pick, I can see Fox easily excluding him (with nobody but us raising an eyebrow).

At this point, I think he needs to revert to an educational campaign, like his dad. It won't get him any closer to the nomination, but it would at least help the cause a little.

Find a nationwide scientifically-conducted poll from whenever that shows Rand polling out of the top 10. Even Fox's own polls rarely have him outside the top 5.

 

[Maltheus]

Find a nationwide scientifically-conducted poll from whenever that shows Rand polling out of the top 10. Even Fox's own polls rarely have him outside the top 5.

Sure most polls I've seen have him 3rd or 4th (when they list everybody). But who are they polling? That's not always made clear. Are those general election voters or primary voters? I suspect it's general. Do you know of any polls that are only targeting primary voters? I'm worried he won't do as well there.

 

[CPUd]

Sure most polls I've seen have him 3rd or 4th (when they list everybody). But who are they polling? That's not always made clear. Are those general election voters or primary voters? I suspect it's general. Do you know of any polls that are only targeting primary voters? I'm worried he won't do as well there.

All those polls list their methodology on the first page, including who they poll. They can drill down by asking questions (see Q28-Q29 here: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/06/24/0624152016iranweb/)

 

[The Northbreather]

Uh, that was not a campaign stop . . . it was a fund-raising event. Rand didn't go to Denver to meet the hippies, he went to Denver to meet the millionaires.The dynamics to win states like Colorado and California GOP caucus/primary delegates is already there.Regardless of polling now, no one is really even paying attention yet -maybe let's all see how Rand does in debates . . . I think Dr. Paul will rock them all then . . . less than four weeks ?

Cannabis industry entrepreneurs : Libertarians

Cannabis customers : Hippies

 

[rich34]

WTF happened? Is there some scandal I didn't hear about?? WTH is up with the defeatist attitudes? Rand is doing just fine. He's already polling higher than Ron ever did in a much more diverse and crowded field. Just remember, polls didn't start showing Ron's true strength in Iowa or New Hampshire until late October/early November. This imo was an attempt to cause his supporters to have this type of attitude. I'm of the opinion that Ron's numbers were always hovering around 20% in Iowa and NH, but the pollsters didn't reflect it until their credibility would be affected had they not showed the true results. I'm also of the opinion that the same thing is currently happening to Rand and once we get closer to November we'll see Rand "rise" in the polls, not because he's catching on, but because that's where he is/was the whole time. Guys/gals just relax, we haven't even had a debate yet.. Rand is one of the best debaters and quick thinkers as I have seen. Like he told Grayson, "try, Trey run on your own merit..." You think that phrase was a mistake? I don't, and when the debates start someone, or rather multiple people are going to look like fools. Just hang in there, in this case the truth and cream is surely going to rise to the top!

 

[rich34]

All Rand had to do was cruise to the debates with those previous strong polling numbers. I have no idea who are the idiots who are advising him. Anyone else taking notes of what Team Hillary is doing by laying low and running out the clock? The campaign team pissed away credibility and strong favorables to go after pink unicorn voters. Now Rand is just another candidate as shown by the polling.

And you believe the polling when it comes to any Paul?? I sure as hell don't.. Rand is polling much higher/stronger than Ron ever did at this point in the cycle and is doing it I might add, in a much more diverse crowded field. I'd bet anything that Rand's numbers in Iowa and NH is much closer to 20% just as Ron's ended up being. Obviously there is a lot of work to be done, but that don't include a defeatist attitude. Just hang in there Rand is doing fine, at least wait until the debates when he'll get a chance to shine in front of all the republican primary voters. Hell, let the man play the game at least until we get somewhat close to the actual primary/caucus's..

 

[rich34]

No he won't. His recent visit shows that he doesn't understand the state at all. You don't go to Denver to meet with the hippies, you go to El Paso county to build your cred with the party you're running in. Granted, it's neocon central down here, but that's where the fight is, if you're serious about the nomination.

Rand's main problem is that he's been running for the general, before doing the much harder work of securing the nomination. And now with Trump seeming to lock down the anti-establishment crowd, it would take a miracle for Rand to get that momentum back. I'm just hoping he makes the debates. Depending on what polls they pick, I can see Fox easily excluding him (with nobody but us raising an eyebrow).

At this point, I think he needs to revert to an educational campaign, like his dad. It won't get him any closer to the nomination, but it would at least help the cause a little.

Trump will either implode himself, or be sunk by the msm in the name of Bush. What is up with you people? Anyone that's been around here long enough should know how is game is played, Trump is merely the new flavor of the month. Rand's numbers are holding steady and will not be in flavor until it's time for pollsters to report actual results which is about November just like they did Ron. What's up with you guys??

 

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Trump will either implode himself, or be sunk by the msm in the name of Bush. What is up with you people? Anyone that's been around here long enough should know how is game is played, Trump is merely the new flavor of the month. Rand's numbers are holding steady and will not be in flavor until it's time for pollsters to report actual results which is about November just like they did Ron. What's up with you guys??

I'm starting to get a little suspicious about some of these posters.