The Hill's assessment of Rand Paul's chances

[Warlord]

xThe 10 Republicans most likely to win the GOP’s 2016 nod

6. Sen. Rand Paul (4)Paul’s backers believed at the outset of the race that the Kentucky senator could expand the appeal of his father, former Rep. Ron Paul (Texas). The theory was based on a sense that the electorate had become more amenable to libertarian ideas and that the younger Paul is a less eccentric figure than his dad.

The bad news:There’s little evidence to support this theory so far. Paul has a decent level of support in both Iowa and New Hampshire, according to the polls, but he is a long-odds bet to win either contest. South Carolina, with a GOP electorate in which social conservatives and military families are well-represented, is an even worse fit.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/246778-the-10-republicans-most-likely-to-win-the-gops-2016-nod

 

[rich34]

xThe 10 Republicans most likely to win the GOP’s 2016 nod









http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/246778-the-10-republicans-most-likely-to-win-the-gops-2016-nod

Imo he's got as good or a better shot of winning the nomination of any candidate not named Bush. Hell, even if he only has Ron's support, had the media not propped up Santorum to be the "anti establishment" candidate Ron could have very well won. Rand has a stronger organization plus having learned their tricks over the past two elections which could give them a better understanding of how to position himself as that candidate. But when you got media like this 24/7 controlling the narrative it is hard to bust through...

 

[AuH20]

He definitely destroyed his window, when he was actually leading the entire GOP field at one time! Voters typically don't come back for second looks.

IMHO Rand's candidacy is DOA and I'm sitting on $300 in gear that I don't know what to do with. When Donald Trump passes you in terms of enthusiasm, you know the end is near.

 

[timosman]

He definitely destroyed his window, when he was actually leading the entire GOP field at one time! Voters typically don't come back for second looks.

IMHO Rand's candidacy is DOA and I'm sitting on $300 in gear that I don't know what to do with. When Donald Trump passes you in terms of enthusiasm, you know the end is near.

He is going to kick ass in 2020.

 

[AuH20]

He is going to kick ass in 2020.

Perhaps if Hillary expedites the doomsday clock. In review, Rand's greatest mistake was deviating from what got him elected in Kentucky. He's completely screwed up on what he was known for (limiting the freaking government from a purely independent slant!) and went off on an ill timed social justice crusade.

 

[Vanguard101]

If we were to be honest, Rand never really had that strong of a chance and even if he did, the establishment would never get behind him. Look what happened with Taft and Goldwater. Reagan got lucky and was much less extreme of a candidate. By the time it's 2020, there will be a fresh new batch of governors and some senators making noise

 

[eleganz]

He definitely destroyed his window, when he was actually leading the entire GOP field at one time! Voters typically don't come back for second looks.

IMHO Rand's candidacy is DOA and I'm sitting on $300 in gear that I don't know what to do with. When Donald Trump passes you in terms of enthusiasm, you know the end is near.

Thats very doom and gloomy coming from a guy who should know that the race hasn't even started yet. As long as Rand is in the top 10 for the debates, he will shine (at the very least better than 6th).

Yes its true Rand used to be number one but that was mainly due to this organization and nothing more, as other candidates came along and also bought some organization and other factors came into play, of course he would drop in ranking. What did you honestly expect?

 

[dude58677]

if he has no chance why bring him up?

 

[AuH20]

If we were to be honest, Rand never really had that strong of a chance and even if he did, the establishment would never get behind him. Look what happened with Taft and Goldwater. Reagan got lucky and was much less extreme of a candidate. By the time it's 2020, there will be a fresh new batch of governors and some senators making noise

After Rand's fantastic victory speech, he fooled me into thinking he could do it. I hate to be fatalistic, but perhaps Rand's ultimate impact will be influencing someone who we have not yet seen.

 

[AuH20]

Thats very doom and gloomy coming from a guy who should know that the race hasn't even started yet. As long as Rand is in the top 10 for the debates, he will shine (at the very least better than 6th).

Yes its true Rand used to be number one but that was mainly due to this organization and nothing more, as other candidates came along and also bought some organization and other factors came into play, of course he would drop in ranking. What did you honestly expect?

There is no buzz. If you are going to make a run, you stand out from the other candidates and given the whole McConnell relationship, he looks like another politician. Rand lost his entire public persona as a national shit stirrer when he allied with McConnell. Rand the senate candidate was one of the most exciting politicians I've witnessed and then he just fizzled out trying to be everything to everyone.

 

[Vanguard101]

There is no buzz. If you are going to make a run, you stand out from the other candidates and given the whole McConnell relationship, he looks like another politician. Rand lost his entire public persona as a national shit stirrer when he allied with McConnell. Rand the senate candidate was one of the most exciting politicians I've witnessed and then he just fizzled out trying to be everything to everyone.

Rand still has buzz and a larger following than his father. The difference is now people aren't as passionate about Rand as they were about Ron. Ron was much more exciting because we knew he wasn't going to win and he would just stick it to everyone.

 

[AuH20]

Rand still has buzz and a larger following than his father. The difference is now people aren't as passionate about Rand as they were about Ron. Ron was much more exciting because we knew he wasn't going to win and he would just stick it to everyone.

Ron was a defiant army of one, which at times was admirable. Rand was supposed to be our Mr. Smith, but ended up running off with McConnell.

 

[EBounding]

I don't get the doom and gloom here. He's polling 3rd or 4th in a diluted field. There have been no debates. No candidate has seriously attacked anyone else yet. He just raised $1M online in a few days last week.

If his numbers and money don't improve by September then I would start to worry.

 

[AuH20]

I don't get the doom and gloom here. He's polling 3rd or 4th in a diluted field. There have been no debates. No candidate has seriously attacked anyone else yet. He just raised $1M online in a few days last week.

If his numbers and money don't improve by September then I would start to worry.

In a hostile media environment, how do you expect him to break free from the pack? He has too much baggage accumulated.

 

[garyallen59]

What the hell's going on in here?

Rand has only begun to campaign.

Has been in the news nearly weekly up until the last couple of weeks.

There hasn't been a debate yet.

He's just now getting campaign offices open in key states.

Hasn't started commercials yet or get out the vote efforts.

We haven't seen the quarterly figures yet.

But Rand had already lost.

ITT: People to avoid.

 

[libertyplz]

In a hostile media environment, how do you expect him to break free from the pack? He has too much baggage accumulated.

I think that will be the hardest to over come. I'm not worried that Rand was once leading and isn't any longer. That is to be expected I think, there was no way he would cruise to the nomination and maintain a lead from 2013 into 2016. There are going to be ups and downs. Rubio was also doing very well early, then he took a big tumble after his immigration stances but he has since rebounded. Again though, I recognize your point, someone like Rubio benefits from having a media that is mostly friendly towards him and that is not the case for Rand.

I'm not too hung up on Rand endorsing McConnell, and overall I don't think that particular instance damaged him too much, it is the combination of the endorsement with some of his other moves to appeal to the establishment. Now, I'm not supporting what Cruz said in regards to Rand in his book, but he did have a point, I remember thinking to myself that Rand seemed to be asking very barbed questions to Cruz during that fake filibuster, and he came across as supporting the establishment side in that. Next, and I think more damaging in regards to the conservative base, was siding with the establishment in the Chris McDaniel race. People weren't too thrilled when he declined to endorse him, but that in itself wasn't too bad, Rand afterall stated that he wouldn't make endorsements in tough primary battles. What really got people going though was that Rand made an almost completely tone deaf statement after the fact in regards to the cheap tactics the establishment used to defeat McDaniel. The establishment used pretty cheap and questionable tactics to get Democratic voters to come across the aisle and vote Cochran. After the fact, Rand gave a pretty awful response and said that he was "for more people voting, not less". I remember reading people going nuts against Rand on social media and in some of the articles, and tbh, the outrage was probably justified in that case.

So I'd say Rand definitely has made some mistakes along the way, but I don't think any of them are fatal. Rand still has time to rebound. I wouldn't start to worry until January when we will see the campaign in full swing and after there are a handful of debates under his belt. If after that his numbers aren't improving then I'd say hit the panic button, but until then I will remain optimistic that Rand has realized that trying to cozy up to the establishment isn't the way to go and that he will kill it come debate time.

 

[Jan2017]

He definitely destroyed his window, when he was actually leading the entire GOP field at one time! Voters typically don't come back for second looks.

IMHO Rand's candidacy is DOA and I'm sitting on $300 in gear that I don't know what to do with. When Donald Trump passes you in terms of enthusiasm, you know the end is near.

Rand will win Colorado - which could be the 3rd caucus/primary on February 1 even before South Carolina
(if Iowa keeps it's traditionally early January start) -
and a large state of delegates.
Rand will also win California - the biggest ticket with 172 delegates to the GOP Natgional Convention in Cleveland's Cavs/Quicken Arena.

Looking at a brokered - not first ballot - GOP National Convention.

 

[Lord Xar]

AuH20 -- yeah, I am with others -- wtf is up?

Most of us here rallied behind Ron Paul with feverish pitch EVEN when he wouldn't pull the trigger and nuke the other candidates on their idiotic positions.. Sure, he'd come out with a line or two during a debate ---- BUT, he wouldn't connect with the average voters....Ron was too smart but couldn't translate that to the layperson. Yet you seemed to be behind him 100%. YET, here is his son -- who has had a few missteps BUT can connect with the everyday joe much much better than his father.. and now you are ready to wash your hands of him? C'mon, get with it.

And you are talking about a "hostile" media -- WTF!!!! That is all we've every known... they destroyed Ron every chance they got.... but they are doing the same to Rand, though a bit more with kid gloves as to not make this a tad obvious..... so, why was the Media on Ron different than now, on Rand?

I am sticking with Rand. He is more agile than his father -- not as nuanced, but he will make the adjustments that need to be made.

If you were gonna critique Rand about something, I figured it would be about that imbecile he has working for him -- that undermined Ron's campaign... but other than that. Step back a bit, chillax.

 

[AuH20]

AuH20 -- yeah, I am with others -- wtf is up?

Most of us here rallied behind Ron Paul with feverish pitch EVEN when he wouldn't pull the trigger and nuke the other candidates on their idiotic positions.. Sure, he'd come out with a line or two during a debate ---- BUT, he wouldn't connect with the average voters....Ron was too smart but couldn't translate that to the layperson. Yet you seemed to be behind him 100%. YET, here is his son -- who has had a few missteps BUT can connect with the everyday joe much much better than his father.. and now you are ready to wash your hands of him? C'mon, get with it.

And you are talking about a "hostile" media -- WTF!!!! That is all we've every known... they destroyed Ron every chance they got.... but they are doing the same to Rand, though a bit more with kid gloves as to not make this a tad obvious..... so, why was the Media on Ron different than now, on Rand?

I am sticking with Rand. He is more agile than his father -- not as nuanced, but he will make the adjustments that need to be made.

If you were gonna critique Rand about something, I figured it would be about that imbecile he has working for him -- that undermined Ron's campaign... but other than that. Step back a bit, chillax.

All Rand had to do was cruise to the debates with those previous strong polling numbers. I have no idea who are the idiots who are advising him. Anyone else taking notes of what Team Hillary is doing by laying low and running out the clock? The campaign team pissed away credibility and strong favorables to go after pink unicorn voters. Now Rand is just another candidate as shown by the polling.

 

[Krugminator2]

Ron was a defiant army of one, which at times was admirable. Rand was supposed to be our Mr. Smith, but ended up running off with McConnell.

Defiant army of one? Ron Paul was THE deciding factor in reelecting one of the worst Republicans in Congress, Don Young. He won by 200 votes over a fairly libertarian opponent. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?151573-Ron-Paul-Endorses-Pork-King-Don-Young Rand will never endorse someone 1/10th as terrible as Don Young. That didn't hurt Ron's popularity.

If I were grading Rand, I would give him a solid A if not an A+. I had low expectations when he was elected and he has far exceeded. I don't even agree with Rand on a lot of things, but he is the best you will see in your lifetime.