Tampa Convention Hurricane Watch

[Original_Intent]

Perhaps God/nature/Allah/etc is trying to tell us something about the two parties:

Funny, I just made a pic of the map of the OP with the caption "How God says: "GOP, I am disappoint". But then I couldnt get stupid photobucket to work.

 

[sailingaway]

there is a better hurricane picture floating around that someone made....

 

[cajuncocoa]

Funny, I just made a pic of the map of the OP with the caption "How God says: "GOP, I am disappoint". But then I couldnt get stupid photobucket to work.

Here ya go:

 

[Matt Collins]

I'd pay good money to sit down and admister a Rorschach test to you...lol.

Oh, it'd be entertaining, I can assure you of that

 

[newbitech]

Being a local person, I certainly respect your opinion. But I'd still call it rare. I grew up in the midwest. Tornadoes shred towns there and kill people regularly if they show up in a populated area. I've lived in the Tampa area for 8 years, and I rarely hear anything worse than a carport being ripped away, or the occasional aluminum roof flying off of a business building. They aren't the same animals for sure. And they are also always described as "possible tornadoes" by the local weather peeps. When tornadoes hit the midwest, people call them tornadoes with zero uncertainty.

If that's not rare, then we, or you could come up with some statistics regarding tornado touchdown deaths and damage, for comparison with midwest tornadoes. I don't think you'll find many tornado deaths in southern FL. I'm not sure about the panhandle.

I'm mostly saying that if you live in the midwest, "tornado" means something very different than it does in FL. I'll stick with that.

I agree with your sticking point. But to be clear, your call of 60-70mph and a few blocks in a tropically spawned tornado was off quite a bit.

We absolutely do not have the same weather as the midwest so i totally agree with you on that. The reason they are possible tornadoes is because they are wrapped up in a much larger cyclone. The tornado in those videos was very hard to see because it was embedded in 200 mile wind field of turbulence that last for days.

Facts. There are two areas of disproportionate tornado spawns. The well know tornado alley, and Florida.

The weakest tornado on the fujita scale, an F0 produce 1/4 mile and secondary gusts from 40-78mph. Below what is considered the extreme threshold or F3 is 113-161MPH.

It is likely the tornado I posted was a strong F2, possibly F3. (officially it was an F1 and lasted 3.5 miles) I think it skipped along much further than that since I watched it bounce over pinellas park which is about 12 miles north of the initial touch down and read reports of largo area being whacked to the north another 7 miles.


stats from the NCDC on tornado strength.

Overall, most tornadoes (around 77 percent) in the U.S. are considered weak (EF0 or EF1) and about 95 percent of all U.S. tornadoes are below EF3 intensity. The remaining small percentage of tornadoes are categorized as violent (EF3 and above). Of these violent twisters, only a few (0.1 percent of all tornadoes) achieve EF5 status, with estimated winds over 200 mph and nearly complete destruction. However, given that on average over 1000 tornadoes hit the U.S. each year, that means that 20 can be expected to be violent and possibly one might be incredible (EF5).

 

[vita3]

Press is selling fear.

What else is new-

 

[UtahApocalypse]

Morning everyone. I stand by all of my remarks from yesterday. Not only that I think the RNC will make the call today. All of the models now say Tampa, even the Euro which had been an outlier. I know many here have been saying it's only a small storm; Even a small Tropical Storm will do damage, take out power, and cause flooding. Yes the business of the convention could likely be carried on safely inside; However the security, transportation, logistics, protesters (not that RNC cares about them), and most importantly Tampa residents could not. Speaking to a meteorologist in Tampa this morning he is pissed, an amazed that they have not made announcements yet about what the "contingency plan" is. With even the Mayor yesterday saying he will cancel it if needed we are very likely near if not at that point.

 

[cajuncocoa]

Morning everyone. I stand by all of my remarks from yesterday. Not only that I think the RNC will make the call today. All of the models now say Tampa, even the Euro which had been an outlier. I know many here have been saying it's only a small storm; Even a small Tropical Storm will do damage, take out power, and cause flooding. Yes the business of the convention could likely be carried on safely inside; However the security, transportation, logistics, protesters (not that RNC cares about them), and most importantly Tampa residents could not. Speaking to a meteorologist in Tampa this morning he is pissed, an amazed that they have not made announcements yet about what the "contingency plan" is. With even the Mayor yesterday saying he will cancel it if needed we are very likely near if not at that point.

I'm impressed with your knowledge about tropical systems...you seem to know as much as those of us who have experienced them along the Gulf Coast. I hope everyone going to Tampa will heed your warnings about this...yes, even a small tropical storm can cause a lot of damage and there are almost always casualties during a hurricane because someone didn't exercise common sense.

 

[Elwar]

Someone good at photoshop NEEDS to put a R3VOLution logo within the cone of the hurricane.

 

[SilenceDewgooder]

Morning everyone. I stand by all of my remarks from yesterday. Not only that I think the RNC will make the call today. All of the models now say Tampa, even the Euro which had been an outlier. I know many here have been saying it's only a small storm; Even a small Tropical Storm will do damage, take out power, and cause flooding. Yes the business of the convention could likely be carried on safely inside; However the security, transportation, logistics, protesters (not that RNC cares about them), and most importantly Tampa residents could not. Speaking to a meteorologist in Tampa this morning he is pissed, an amazed that they have not made announcements yet about what the "contingency plan" is. With even the Mayor yesterday saying he will cancel it if needed we are very likely near if not at that point.

Apparently, there plan on a lot of people being inside:

"Orient Road Jail cleared out to handle RNC arrests"

http://www.abcactionnews.com//dpp/news/region_hillsborough/orient-road-jail-cleared-out-to-handle-rnc-arrests

 

[pcosmar]

Press is selling fear.

What else is new-

Not new..
But the latest track (Subject to change) shows it going through the Keys Monday night and not in Tampa till Tue.

Unless it goes south of the projected track (very possible) and out into the gulf. Then the Gulf States could get the hit.

Of course it could turn to the north sooner,, and run up the East Coast.

 

[Original_Intent]

Here ya go:

OMG, you used the same colot text, the same font, and placed all of the words exactly where I did! Even the punctuation is identical! Hou u hack my computer?!?!

OK, I just realized I didn;t include the words "This is". Still pretty freaking awesome!

 

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

There is a ton of data that tornadoes in FL don't get above 70 mph winds very often?

You misspoke. It's okay to admit it.

I'd compare deaths from tornadoes, since that might be easiest to find. Maybe worse than misspoke - I just went trying to use numbers when I shouldn't have.

I do know know that people are deathly afraid of tornadoes in the midwest, and nobody in FL gives a hoot about them. Even if a carport does fly away a few times per year, the weather "authorities" usually act like they can't tell if it was a tornado or a straight line wind gust. So that tells me it started and ended too fast for anyone to determine rotation - and that it was not stronger than a wind gust anyway.

Apparently, there plan on a lot of people being inside:

"Orient Road Jail cleared out to handle RNC arrests"

http://www.abcactionnews.com//dpp/news/region_hillsborough/orient-road-jail-cleared-out-to-handle-rnc-arrests

But only the Paul people will fit. How nice of them. lol

Not new..
But the latest track (Subject to change) shows it going through the Keys Monday night and not in Tampa till Tue.

I know the track has it running right into Tampa right now, but 6 days out, these tracks change all of the time. And even if it stays off the coast, the area could still take a lot of wind and especially bad storm surge. They usually don't even show the cones on the news here and just show the spaghetti models instead. I know they might cancel the convention early, but I'll do my panicking when it's a day away and still coming to Tampa. (by panicking, I mean throwing my lawn furniture in the pool and buying a bunch of beer.)

You guys should see how fast store shelves empty at hurricane time.

 

[cajuncocoa]

You guys should see how fast store shelves empty at hurricane time.

oh, yeah!!

 

[coastie]

OMG, you used the same colot text, the same font, and placed all of the words exactly where I did! Even the punctuation is identical! Hou u hack my computer?!?!

OK, I just realized I didn;t include the words "This is". Still pretty freaking awesome!

If it stays on it's current track, looks like it will hit where I am in the Panhandle.


Hopefully it will, I repair/maintenance/install hurricane shutters. Here's to hoping my phone starts ringing off the hook in the next couple of days like it did when Debbie showed up. This year has sucked, BAD, for work, I'm close to losing everything.

 

[pcosmar]

You guys should see how fast store shelves empty at hurricane time.

In my experience,,more people are killed by sheer stupidity (driving in blind panic,, Running generators indoors) than from the storm itself.

 

[coastie]

In my experience,,more people are killed by sheer stupidity (driving in blind panic,, Running generators indoors) than from the storm itself.

Yep...as a matter of fact, a recent job I did for some old rich folks, I noticed their generator was plugged in -inside their house, next to an open window. This was after Debbie. After a respectful scolding from my partner and I, they allowed us to move it outside for them(for a price, of course).

How they survived with that thing running for two days inside, we'll never know. St. George Island where they live lost power for three days after Debbie hit.

 

[jbauer]

I'm going to bring some float-ees with when I get down there!!!

 

[wgadget]

Hurricane:Tampa::Snowstorm:Maine

 

[ronpaulfollower999]

A NOAA G-IV aircraft will be sampling the atmosphere around Isaac. In addition to that, the National Hurricane Center has requested that certain sites send up weather balloons every 6 hours, as opposed to the normal 12. This data will be fed into tomorrow's 2 am model runs and the 5 am forecast track will reflect those runs. This should hopefully give us a better idea on where the storm is going. Intensity will be a bit of a wildcard since there is uncertainty on how the storm will interact with the mountainous terrain of Haiti and eastern Cuba.