Tampa Convention Hurricane Watch

Newest models are good for Tampa, system is moving further west and may not impact the RNC after all.

Bad News..... Storm likely will rapidly intensify and become a Cat 5 going to: New Orleans.
 
UtahApocalypse said:
Newest models are good for Tampa, system is moving further west and may not impact the RNC after all.

Bad News..... Storm likely will rapidly intensify and become a Cat 5 going to: New Orleans.
Click to expand...
I've been saying this, worrying about this, for a couple of days now. I think I even mentioned in this thread that this is similar (or exactly?) the path Katrina took.

Katrina made landfall at NOLA on Monday 8/29/05...my family left home on the Friday afternoon to go to a fundraiser for the H.S. band my boys were in. At that time, Katrina was supposed to make landfall at the Florida panhandle that night. We were away from news updates all night, and as we were leaving (I'll never forget this moment) my son's (now ex-)girlfriend turns around and says to us "my Dad texted me, Katrina is headed here and is supposed to be a Cat 5"....the next 12 hours were a blur, trying to get things at home secured so we could evacuate to Houston.

Excuse my rambling, but I'm probably not going to be very coherent for awhile.
 
We will see what the models say tomorrow morning with the extra data, but the slow westward shift does look slightly encouraging for Tampa. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight westward adjustment with the NHC 5 pm advisory, however, the storm does still bear close watching.
 
Since they cancelled the convention on the first day in 2008 for a hurricane and they were in Minnesota... if it goes west it will strengthen from the warm shallow Gulf water and they'll cancel it out of 'respect' and 'safety'.
 
UtahApocalypse said:
Newest models are good for Tampa, system is moving further west and may not impact the RNC after all.

Bad News..... Storm likely will rapidly intensify and become a Cat 5 going to: New Orleans.
Click to expand...


Wow. I'd rather eat it myself than see that happen.



jcarcinogen said:
Mayor Bob Bruckhorn, D-Tampa, Florida, explains why he won’t hesitate to order an evacuation during the RNC convention.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/48768376#48768376
Click to expand...


If it is cat 1 off the coast, it will be rather meaningless... maybe a little flooding.
 
MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2 said:
Wow. I'd rather eat it myself than see that happen.


If it is cat 1 off the coast, it will be rather meaningless... maybe a little flooding.
Click to expand...

1. I have yet to see a credible model strengthening this to a Category 5. It will cross over one or more of the islands, which is not really helpful, and it is not really much of a wind event at the moment.

2. "A little flooding" in this area is already going on. Several of our patients are unreachable. Some of our staff have to park a street or two away to wade to their houses. It looks like the next couple of weeks is going to suck badly :(
 
MelissaWV said:
1. I have yet to see a credible model strengthening this to a Category 5. It will cross over one or more of the islands, which is not really helpful, and it is not really much of a wind event at the moment.

2. "A little flooding" in this area is already going on. Several of our patients are unreachable. Some of our staff have to park a street or two away to wade to their houses. It looks like the next couple of weeks is going to suck badly :(
Click to expand...

i spent the day clearing out street gutters. We had a mailbox float up in the driveway yesterday.

just the regular rain is really swamping us up here in pinellas park and downtown st. pete.


live weather chat right now. good stuff.

http://www.abcactionnews.com/generi...ve-chat-with-the-ABC-Action-News-weather-team
 
They keep predicting the move to the north,, but it hasn't been (or very little). It is moving west..

234951W5_NL_sm.gif


It is very possible that it will miss Florida entirely (possibly brushing the Keys) and head into the gulf.
Time will tell,, but this is why you watch,, but don't panic.
 
It would be really rare, given the steering currents and potential steering currents, for this to stay moving west and miss Florida altogether. The jog north will happen when it comes under the influence of this thrice-accursed front and a couple of high pressure systems.
 
MelissaWV said:
Yeah I'm further north by a lot. I have co-workers who come in front Lake City, etc..
Click to expand...


Im even further north and west (PCB), and today is the 2nd whole day that it hasn't rained. It was really nice today, which is bad, bad...in my extensive hurricane experience, the "calm before the storm" has rang true. I knew Debbie was going to hit us, weird calm right before it.

But yeah-we're saturated here, for sure. Normally, the storms build up in the gulf just south of us (less than 3 miles from the coast), and then blow in and dump every afternoon 10 miles inland a la central Florida. It really doesnt rain a lot on the beach at all. These last two months it's just been relentless, like a .50 inch or more per day.:eek::(
 
Something important to note from the 8 pm update:

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
Click to expand...

A pass to the west of Tampa, would put most of Tampa on the "dirty" side of the storm. That's where most of the rain and gusty winds will be located.
 
we didn't get a track update. If the storm stays week, it drifts west. If it pulls in those multiple vortex and stacks with the mid level circulations it will strengthen and make a tighter turn.

this storm is weird, it has looked better and fired more convection at night, opposite of what you'd expect. if it's going to strengthen at all, the next 24 hours will be the time to do it. See if it slows down at all. Its starting to feel a little tug and the winds are increasing with lower pressure. not much, but enough to see the dynamics of how this storm is gonna play out. The next round of models should be the most accurate to date.
 
Updated the OP with the 11 pm discussion. Some interesting points bolded.

Based on the current track, Tampa has a 31% chance of seeing tropical storm force winds. Watches for the Florida Keys will likely be issued tomorrow morning.

025134.gif
 
Spoke to a few of my neighbors about this (we all live on the gulf, west of Tampa) and they said they're not worried at all since it is only a Category 1. They just said that if it gets close enough they may move a few of their cars inland a few miles to higher ground but that it will not be much worse than the tropical storm we just had a few weeks ago.

It will probably cause some flooding but that is about it. The convention was setting up a HUGE tent outside of the dome to keep people out of the sun. That will likely get pummelled.

For me, I am surrounded by Sea Pines which blocks the wind from my house. The only worry I have is the storm surge pushing the water up over my sea wall. Even then, it will just get salt water on my grass.

So, much ado about nothing.
 
Movement, West at 15mph.
Earlier models showed it going through Haiti/DR,,it is well south and moving west.
Earlier models showed it missing Jamaica,, passing well to the north.. It didn't and is looking like a hit now.
Wait and see,,
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

CaptUSA
Cuba: Power Outages & Hurricane
Replies
0
Views
659
CaptUSA
CaptUSA
Swordsmyth
Hurricane Dorian upgraded to Category 1 storm; could become Category 3 hurricane, hit FLt
2 3
Replies
41
Views
2K
Origanalist
Origanalist
Swordsmyth
'Extremely Dangerous' Hurricane Willa Now Category 5 Off Mexico's Pacific Coast
Replies
0
Views
225
Swordsmyth
Swordsmyth
Zippyjuan
Catastrophic Landfall Expected in Mexico Friday; Patricia Becomes Strongest Hurricane Ever Rec
2
Replies
34
Views
1K
Zippyjuan
Zippyjuan
presence
Super Typhoon Haiyan 195 MPH SUSTAINED, **235** Gusts
Replies
12
Views
2K
presence
presence
Back
Top