SC GOP Senate 2014 Primary Poll: Graham <50%, Bright 13%, Mace 10%, Cash 7%

[Koz]

My word, how fucking stupid are the people in SC to put Lindsey Graham back into office. This is not encouraging.

 

[goRPaul]

It's your money, but if I were you, I would donate to anti-Graham groups instead of individual candidates. There is a good chance Mace will not even make it to the runoff.

I don't play the odds with my donations, I use my conscience. Mace is the best candidate in this election.

 

[Brett85]

My word, how fucking stupid are the people in SC to put Lindsey Graham back into office. This is not encouraging.

How is the poll not encouraging? Graham is under 50%, which is the goal.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

My word, how fucking stupid are the people in SC to put Lindsey Graham back into office. This is not encouraging.

It's very early in this process.

 

[gnuschler]

My word, how fucking stupid are the people in SC to put Lindsey Graham back into office. This is not encouraging.

If this poll is even remotely close to accurate, it is the best possible news we could have hoped for. More polls like these will definitely draw in the likes of Club For Growth, Senate Conservatives Fund, etc.

 

[lib3rtarian]

I think this poll is very encouraging. If you add up the percentages of Bright, Mace and Cash, that's 29.3% and it's solid anti-Graham. 28.3% are still undecided and even if we don't convert any Graham supporters, if we grab 21.71% out of the 28.3% undecided, that will put us at 50.01%, which is winning the primary. The primary is still 9 months out, so bar some catastrophic events, Graham's numbers can only remain stable or go down, whilst the anti-Graham percentage will increase as more undecideds get to decide.

 

[jkob]

Under 50% is great, still got a long ways to go but forcing a run off is the first step.

 

[Mr.NoSmile]

If Lee Bright pulled it off, what would become of his seat? After all, given his work in the state, you wouldn't want to see it gained by some neoconservative or anyone who's like Graham.

 

[ican'tvote]

As long as one of them makes it in the runoff, I don't care. They had better play this smart and avoid attacking each other.

 

[nobody's_hero]

If Lee Bright pulled it off, what would become of his seat? After all, given his work in the state, you wouldn't want to see it gained by some neoconservative or anyone who's like Graham.

I keep saying I wish Mace would bow out and run for a state seat. It would give her time to build up a voting record and boost her name recognition.

 

[eleganz]

This is gonna have to be a purely grassroots election. They need an army to make calls and knock on doors.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

I think this poll is very encouraging. If you add up the percentages of Bright, Mace and Cash, that's 29.3% and it's solid anti-Graham. 28.3% are still undecided and even if we don't convert any Graham supporters, if we grab 21.71% out of the 28.3% undecided, that will put us at 50.01%, which is winning the primary. The primary is still 9 months out, so bar some catastrophic events, Graham's numbers can only remain stable or go down, whilst the anti-Graham percentage will increase as more undecideds get to decide.

Good breakdown of the percentages and what we need to pull off a victory here. I wish the three amigos would've jumped in 6 months earlier than they did to help their name recognition. We're just getting started here.

 

[mosquitobite]

I keep saying I wish Mace would bow out and run for a state seat. It would give her time to build up a voting record and boost her name recognition.

Yep, this is what she should have done.

Which is another reason my gut is wary of her.

If she is active in the liberty movement she knew Lee Bright and knew he intended to run. Running for Senate is not cheap, so who starts out gunning for that with so little name recognition? Anyone big funding her?

 

[Barrex]

I think this poll is very encouraging. If you add up the percentages of Bright, Mace and Cash, that's 29.3% and it's solid anti-Graham. 28.3% are still undecided and even if we don't convert any Graham supporters, if we grab 21.71% out of the 28.3% undecided, that will put us at 50.01%, which is winning the primary. The primary is still 9 months out, so bar some catastrophic events, Graham's numbers can only remain stable or go down, whilst the anti-Graham percentage will increase as more undecideds get to decide.

You dont make plans on best case scenario.
Why would all of Bright, Mace and Cash go to anti-Graham candidate? Is there any presedent? I dont think so (guessing because it sound improbable).
Why would 21.71% out of 28.3% of undecuded go to anti-Graham? Why that vote wouldnt split 50-50?
Who got more money to spend?

 

[lib3rtarian]

You dont make plans on best case scenario.
Why would all of Bright, Mace and Cash go to anti-Graham candidate? Is there any presedent? I dont think so (guessing because it sound improbable).
Why would 21.71% out of 28.3% of undecuded go to anti-Graham? Why that vote wouldnt split 50-50?
Who got more money to spend?

This was a poll of SC Republicans. Graham has been in office from 1995 to 2003 as a Congressman from SC-03 and from 2003 to present as a Senator. So I think it's safe to say that pretty much every Republican in the state would know him. If 10+ years doesn't make you a Graham guy, there is nothing which will. So I don't think he is going to gain anymore. If we manage to keep his popularity at 42%-43%, that's enough for us. Of course, I am guessing, but isn't everything a guesswork anyway?

 

[Brett85]

Why would 21.71% out of 28.3% of undecuded go to anti-Graham? Why that vote wouldnt split 50-50?
Who got more money to spend?

If you are asked if you are likely to be married to the same person next year, a vote of "undecided" does not bode well for your marriage.

 

[Mr.NoSmile]

Yep, this is what she should have done.

Which is another reason my gut is wary of her.

If she is active in the liberty movement she knew Lee Bright and knew he intended to run. Running for Senate is not cheap, so who starts out gunning for that with so little name recognition? Anyone big funding her?

To be fair, everyone wavered on this going back as far as when people thought Tom Davis would run. But then neither of these two declared, but then Richard Cash DID declare first, then Mace and Bright both declared, like, within the same day. Very annoying and would've been better if one of them had just declared from the start, rather than this guessing game. If they were committed from the start, they would've declared early rather than waver and then do it within the same time frame. Stranger things have happened. Rand Paul, even though he had Paul's name, didn't hold political office prior to running.

 

[mosquitobite]

To be fair, everyone wavered on this going back as far as when people thought Tom Davis would run. But then neither of these two declared, but then Richard Cash DID declare first, then Mace and Bright both declared, like, within the same day. Very annoying and would've been better if one of them had just declared from the start, rather than this guessing game. If they were committed from the start, they would've declared early rather than waver and then do it within the same time frame. Stranger things have happened. Rand Paul, even though he had Paul's name, didn't hold political office prior to running.

But he had the Paul name, that's the key difference.

Then we have Rubio... and look where that got us. I'm sure others can name more.

I've said before, she may be a WONDERFUL woman and possibly even liberty leaning. But Newt says he is these days too. I don't gamble with my cash - it goes to those who have a record to back up their rhetoric. I've been in this game since the Republican Revolution of 1994. I don't trust many people.

 

[Uriah]

If Cash, Mace, and Bright don't attack each other and attack Graham, this could go well. All the candidates need to focus on taking Graham's positive image down. The more they do that the more likely they will have a run-off. In my mind, having three candidates running against Graham is better than one. Also, each candidate is different and will bring in different activists that will work the ground. That is potentially more than 3 times the amount of negativity that can be brought against Graham from one opposing candidate.

Things are looking up in SC. I would only hope that the candidates facing Graham stay focused on attacking him and not each other. And rally behind whichever of them heads into the run-off.

 

[Brett85]

But he had the Paul name, that's the key difference.

Then we have Rubio... and look where that got us. I'm sure others can name more.

Rubio never claimed to be associated with the liberty movement in any way. He always said he was an internationalist/interventionist on foreign policy issues.