Ron Paul just lept past Huntsman and Cain on Intrade

[69360]

i would put a lot more stock into these numbers if I knew that there was a significant amount of money in these markets. I mean, if there is only a couple grand in the market it's not nearly the same as a 6,7 or 8 figure prediction market.

Exactly

 

[da32130]

Probably buys his own shares. Intrade is cheap enough that if you have money to burn you can influence it.

There doesn't have to be any volume or trading for the prices to be right. The bids/ask can just move to the correct location.

If someone stepped in to influence the market everyone else could take advantage of the big player.

Huntsman is there because he is the alternative to Romney if Romney fails. It assumes a New Hampshire surge after a bust in Iowa by Romney.

The market may be smarter than you think.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

I'm coming up with 32.33 - repeating of course...

*sigh* well that's a lot better than we usually do...

 

[roughridersten]

I agree with da32130: Huntsman is probably rising because people are buying in anticipation that Gingrich will falter and someone else must take the anti-Romney vote. At this point it is either Paul or Huntsman, both trading about the same amount. Here is the history of this market since April. Notice that intrade never really gave Cain a chance (smarter than you think). I last updated this on Wednesday, so it doesn't show the recent rise to 7.5 by Paul.

 

[69360]

There doesn't have to be any volume or trading for the prices to be right. The bids/ask can just move to the correct location.

If someone stepped in to influence the market everyone else could take advantage of the big player.

Huntsman is there because he is the alternative to Romney if Romney fails. It assumes a New Hampshire surge after a bust in Iowa by Romney.

The market may be smarter than you think.

The shares are too cheap for it to matter, so people play with it. If it was real money then it might be accurate.

 

[roughridersten]

Each share is worth $10 (combined from the buyer and seller). The Ron Paul market has had a lifetime volume of 160,000. This means that a total of $1.6M has been put into that contract. Now obviously that is not the open interest, as people can buy and sell and buy again. But all those transactions add up to $1.6M, so I wouldn't write these amounts off so easily. The volume for Ron Paul (so far) today was 1,614 contracts.

 

[da32130]

The shares are too cheap for it to matter, so people play with it. If it was real money then it might be accurate.

Some people play with it and then the price goes back to where it should by those that are taking it seriously.

I haven't seen evidence that the market is way off for prolonged periods.

It is much more accurate than polls. The national polls don't see Huntsman's strength, but intrade can.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Some people play with it and then the price goes back to where it should by those that are taking it seriously.

I haven't seen evidence that the market is way off for prolonged periods.

It is much more accurate than polls. The national polls don't see Huntsman's strength, but intrade can.

I agree. People have to remember that this market is very volatile. That doesn't mean it's inaccurate, but it's only accurate for a very short time before the event happens. If primaries were happening now, we'd have about a 7.5% chance of making it out on top. However, that can change very easily in the coming weeks and months and our chances could go up very rapidly. The market wouldn't have been accurate in terms of the ultimate outcome, but it was before the event actually happened.

 

[69360]

Some people play with it and then the price goes back to where it should by those that are taking it seriously.

I haven't seen evidence that the market is way off for prolonged periods.

It is much more accurate than polls. The national polls don't see Huntsman's strength, but intrade can.

Huntsman's strength? C'mon

 

[rp08orbust]

8.9%

 

[Carole]

Disregard. I looked at original wrong numbers

 

[da32130]

Huntsman's strength? C'mon

You c'mon. Huntsman is polling behind Santorum nationally, but is around 10% (fourth) behind Paul in NH. Iowa and NH mean more than any other state as this point.

The same scenario where Paul does well - 1st in Iowa and Romney a distant 3rd, leading to a possible win in NH - also would be huge for Huntsman because he could be the replacement for Romney. They are giving him a 10% chance to win NH. If he does that and has the establishment behind him he could win the nomination.

Yes. If Paul wins Iowa big, and kills Mitt and Newt, NH could be a Paul, Huntsman, Mitt, and Newt race. Both Paul and Huntsman could win. If either win they become huge frontrunners (more so for Paul, he becomes almost unbeatable if he wins NH).

 

[69360]

You c'mon. Huntsman is polling behind Santorum nationally, but is around 10% (fourth) behind Paul in NH. Iowa and NH mean more than any other state as this point.

The same scenario where Paul does well - 1st in Iowa and Romney a distant 3rd, leading to a possible win in NH - also would be huge for Huntsman because he could be the replacement for Romney. They are giving him a 10% chance to win NH. If he does that and has the establishment behind him he could win the nomination.

Yes. If Paul wins Iowa big, and kills Mitt and Newt, NH could be a Paul, Huntsman, Mitt, and Newt race. Both Paul and Huntsman could win. If either win they become huge frontrunners (more so for Paul, he becomes almost unbeatable if he wins NH).

Huntsman a frontrunner? Obama has a better chance of being a GOP frontrunner.

 

[da32130]

Huntsman a frontrunner? Obama has a better chance of being a GOP frontrunner.

That is what a lot of people believe about Paul. But they are wrong. I've provided the facts. Even if they surprise you, they are still right.

He is a frontrunner after a NH win, which is only about a 10% chance.

 

[roughridersten]

Updated today.