Ron Paul just lept past Huntsman and Cain on Intrade

[sailingaway]

The offer is now 11%. Bid 8.1%

But they keep hitting the bid on the Presidential nomination one. It is 4.4% now. I guess we'll see how low it goes.

That one is manipulation I believe, it is the 'top line' those using intrade to advertise care about, and too far out for the serious traders, unless they see a real deal, imho. Iowa, on the other hand, is getting closer and over the next month or so we may start seeing some action there.

 

[R3volutionJedi]

That's a good jump

 

[da32130]

That one is manipulation I believe, it is the 'top line' those using intrade to advertise care about, and too far out for the serious traders, unless they see a real deal, imho. Iowa, on the other hand, is getting closer and over the next month or so we may start seeing some action there.

As long as there is enough liquidity and you have insight you can trade. My impression is that the presidential nomination is usually more liquid due to better historical data on election outcomes. If the recent buying was just manipulation it should get repriced fairly quickly. So we'll see.

I'm not sure what you mean by "top line", but the ask has been falling as well.

 

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Romney 70%! Do that many people think voters will hold their nose and vote for the establishment pick again? That would mean the GOP rank and file are hopelessly stupid, and there's no chance of ever getting this country back on track.

 

[rp08orbust]

Ron Paul just hit 5.4% again. There are currently huge bids at and above 5%. I'd like to believe that someone knows something we don't.

 

[low preference guy]

Ron Paul just hit 5.4% again. There are currently huge bids at and above 5%. I'd like to believe that someone knows something we don't.

it seems everyone is going to have at least some time in the limelight

 

[rp08orbust]

5.8% Definitely not a fluke.

 

[Tod]

Just heard a joke: Berlusconi already has a new job lined up: Head of the National Restaurant Association!

 

[trey4sports]

with all due respect.... it's still 5.8%

 

[Esoteric]

with all due respect.... it's still 5.8%

you have no idea how big this move is. I've been holding Ron shares at 2% for about 6 months, watching it never go above 3%.

 

[muzzled dogg]

according to some dude in my bodog thread he was as high as 11:1 on 9/10/2011

 

[roughridersten]

Ron Paul's chance of getting the Republican nomination had been stagnated between 2-3% for weeks. Starting yesterday, Ron Paul's chance has risen sharply on strong trading volume and now sits at 5.6%. He has now leapfrogged Cain for getting the nomination.

My guess is that the first surge corresponds with the information about three way poll between Obama, Romney, and Paul.

During the last two days, Romney and Perry have seen their numbers drop, while Gingrich and Cain have held steady.



http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=656777

Meanwhile, Paul is now third behind Obama and Romney to win the general election (ahead of Perry and Gingrich).

 

[harikaried]

Ron Paul was up to 7.8% for a bit during the debate.

 

[InTradePro]

Ron Paul was up to 7.8% for a bit during the debate.

Currently:

Romney: 70%
Gingrich: 9%
Paul: 7.5%
Cain: 4.2%
Perry: 4%
Huntsman: 3%
Bachman: 1%
Santorum: 0.6%

 

[pmbug]

I have no idea why intrade numbers are newsworthy, but CNBC was showing them in the sidebar right after the debate ended. They showed Paul with an impressive +79% or something like that.

 

[rp08orbust]

with all due respect.... it's still 5.8%

6.5%

 

[rp08orbust]

Ahead of Huntsman again with 7.5% to his 7.1%.

 

[bluesc]

Ahead of Huntsman again with 7.5% to his 7.1%.

Huntsman is completely insignificant. How can he have almost an equal chance as Ron?

 

[trey4sports]

i would put a lot more stock into these numbers if I knew that there was a significant amount of money in these markets. I mean, if there is only a couple grand in the market it's not nearly the same as a 6,7 or 8 figure prediction market.

 

[69360]

Huntsman is completely insignificant. How can he have almost an equal chance as Ron?

Probably buys his own shares. Intrade is cheap enough that if you have money to burn you can influence it.