Ron Paul at 40% on Iowa intrade toady

[TheSecretBillionaire]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749798

gatttttt dayum!

He's catchin' on!

 

[libertygrl]

 

[Hospitaller]

Toady

(That is an inside joke btw newbies)

 

[coastie]

 

[dcjones]

I was surprised to see the Republican nomination chances that people are betting on. Romney @ 70%, Gingrich @ 9%, Paul @ 8%. Surprised Romney was so high considering how much he has dropped in the Polls recently. I can understand why Gingrich is so low (he still has hardly any money) and no established ground game.

Ron Paul now has the momentum and is well funded. I bet his probability will be at 12% - 18% soon, And closer to 30% - 35% if he wins Iowa and NH.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84328

 

[airborne373]

From what I have observed, Intrade only reacts to polls. Intrade does not predict.

 

[Aratus]

 

[hazek]

From what I have observed, Intrade only reacts to polls. Intrade does not predict.

Of course. It's a betting site that reacts to what the events indicate is a good bet as they unfold.

 

[dcjones]

Well intrade is people betting. So they probably react to many different outside sources before placing bets. If I was betting I would look at the funding as a indicator of campaign longevity. Any good recent links to the candidates funding? This is the only one that I found. This is the same as it was a week ago before the money bomb:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance#canda=newt-gingrich&candb=ron-paul

 

[aSwedishSupporter]

Well, Gingrich fell in Iowa, from 65% to 25% probability before this PPP-poll. (He's now been down to 10% as lowest).
But I do believe that Intrade underestimates Ron Pauls strength on the ground in Iowa. Certainly, some bettors go by polls and MSM, which underestimate Ron Paul's chances. So there could be a little profit opportunity there.

 

[Len Larson]

It's important to remember that Intraders don't necessarily buy/sell based solely on the final outcome. Many are simply trading on the swings and are not going to hold those shares. For example, someone is buying Newt right now, probably thinking this is a dip and he will see a spike after NH or SC so he can sell for a profit.

 

[kylejack]

Ron Paul is now a huge overdog.

 

[Karsten]

Probably the only reason we're not breaking 50% is the constant media attacks.

 

[Brett85]

I'm glad I decided to buy Ron's Iowa shares. I bought his New Hampshire shares as well.

 

[Brett85]

I was surprised to see the Republican nomination chances that people are betting on. Romney @ 70%, Gingrich @ 9%, Paul @ 8%. Surprised Romney was so high considering how much he has dropped in the Polls recently. I can understand why Gingrich is so low (he still has hardly any money) and no established ground game.

Ron Paul now has the momentum and is well funded. I bet his probability will be at 12% - 18% soon, And closer to 30% - 35% if he wins Iowa and NH.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84328

Romney hasn't dropped in any of the recent polls. He's been going up slightly lately. Ron's national share price will go up if he wins Iowa, and will go up dramatically if he wins New Hampshire.

 

[bluesc]

I bought his New Hampshire shares as well.

Good move.

 

[airborne373]

The day after RP wins, Intrade will have him at 100%. Intrade is good at telling you what is happening but not so good in predicting what is going to happen.

 

[aSwedishSupporter]

Ron Paul has traded at 50% today! (Well, 49.6% to be exact). Now down to about 42-45% in the low-liquidity swings on InTrade.

I don't know the specific reason, but his odds made a clear break-through today. Our Iowa win will soon be taken for granted! The supporters of other candidates won't even bother to make the effort to vote. They will know already that they've lost.

I'll donate my profit to some chip-in after his Iowa win!

 

[tremendoustie]

That seems very low. Paul's polling #1, and has better organization and enthusiasm than the others. He should be at 70-80%

 

[aSwedishSupporter]

Yeah, it's low. I think InTrade bettors generally go by public statistics like opinion polls. It's difficult for them to evaluate campaign strength. It's only small money for professional betting people, max $250 per person as I understand it.