Ron Paul at 40% on Iowa intrade toady

[InTradePro]

That seems very low. Paul's polling #1, and has better organization and enthusiasm than the others. He should be at 70-80%

Three reason why Dr Paul may not be as good as polls suggest:
1) Polls include students many of which will be home(and out of state) on polling day.
2) Grinrich is falling and likely to fall to pre-bump figures of 10% or less, of his voters according to 2nd pick from PPP many split to Romney, this alone would put Romney ahead.
3) Huckabee who won Iowa 4 years ago is going to endorse before voting day and at the appropriate time he is likely to endorse Romney.

 

[Len Larson]

Yeah, it's low. I think InTrade bettors generally go by public statistics like opinion polls. It's difficult for them to evaluate campaign strength. It's only small money for professional betting people, max $250 per person as I understand it.

Uh, no. If you are going to short sell for instance, you must have the full amount in your account to cover the share. Intrade shares settle for either $0 or $10. So a 1000 shares would require $10,000 funding. Look at the volume in some markets. Much more than $250.

 

[Brett85]

Three reason why Dr Paul may not be as good as polls suggest:
1) Polls include students many of which will be home(and out of state) on polling day.
2) Grinrich is falling and likely to fall to pre-bump figures of 10% or less, of his voters according to 2nd pick from PPP many split to Romney, this alone would put Romney ahead.
3) Huckabee who won Iowa 4 years ago is going to endorse before voting day and at the appropriate time he is likely to endorse Romney.

I don't buy your first point at all. Yes, some out of state students who attend Iowa or Iowa State will be out of the state during the caucus. However, that number will be made up by the number of Iowans who attend college out of state. Many, if not all of them will be back home and able to participate in the caucus. So, it's a wash over all.

 

[InTradePro]

IDK for sure but maybe $250 limit is for new or unverified accounts?

 

[Brett85]

IDK for sure but maybe $250 limit is for new or unverified accounts?

No, there is no limit. You could put a million dollars in your account if you want.

 

[aSwedishSupporter]

Okay. I'm new on InTrade and saw that I have a $250 limit.
If there's no such general limit, then I have no good explanation for the low liquidity. Maybe everyone think that politics is just boring?

 

[Len Larson]

There are external limits. In my own case I had to be careful not to exceed an amount that could trigger misdemeanor prosecution. It sucks and I'm not sure how my state could prosecute something that happens outside of their jurisdiction anyway. Furthermore, Intrade is really no different from the futures markets that every farmer in the state uses.

 

[InTradePro]

Okay. I'm new on InTrade and saw that I have a $250 limit.
If there's no such general limit, then I have no good explanation for the low liquidity. Maybe everyone think that politics is just boring?

Over 1 million $$$ claimed to be matched on republician nomination market. In what way do you mean low liquidity?

 

[Brett85]

There are external limits. In my own case I had to be careful not to exceed an amount that could trigger misdemeanor prosecution.

What are you talking about there? There aren't any U.S laws against people investing on Intrade. There are just laws that make it illegal for a company like Intrade to operate within the United States.

 

[aSwedishSupporter]

Oh, I mean that the first week after I had bet on Ron Paul winning Iowa, nothing happened. Some days almost no trades are made. Then he suddenly rose to 40%. The bid-ask spread is often about a dollar (10% points). And this is the front runner in an election which gets world wide attention. Betting market prices are good predictors in theory, but in practice, well, hardly anyone pays attention and the reliability is no better than that.

 

[Len Larson]

What are you talking about there? There aren't any U.S laws against people investing on Intrade. There are just laws that make it illegal for a company like Intrade to operate within the United States.

Google "Jeffrey Trauman"
I'm not going to be next, especially since one of my former us senators made political hay over markets used to predict terrorism.

ETA, when I pulled up the actual text of the law, it specifically mentions political events too. So that is just way too much reliance on a reasonable prosecutor for me. No, I'll keep it small and not worth their time or political capital. I could have made a lot of money by now too.

 

[InTradePro]

Oh, I mean that the first week after I had bet on Ron Paul winning Iowa, nothing happened. Some days almost no trades are made. Then he suddenly rose to 40%. The bid-ask spread is often about a dollar (10% points). And this is the front runner in an election which gets world wide attention. Betting market prices are good predictors in theory, but in practice, well, hardly anyone pays attention and the reliability is no better than that.

Yep. Nothing happening equal fews movements in the market. Also few use the Iowa market but instaed use the Rep nomination market as with the individual states it's difficult to find on the site.

 

[Agorism]

This gives us a 33% chance of winning NH if we win Iowa.

Obviously NH needs some work

 

[Brett85]

Google "Jeffrey Trauman"
I'm not going to be next, especially since one of my former us senators made political hay over markets used to predict terrorism.

ETA, when I pulled up the actual text of the law, it specifically mentions political events too. So that is just way too much reliance on a reasonable prosecutor for me. No, I'll keep it small and not worth their time or political capital. I could have made a lot of money by now too.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=353471

It sounds like you don't have anything to worry about unless you live in North Dakota. There's no federal law against individuals gambling online. (I don't even consider Intrade to be "gambling.")

 

[Len Larson]

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=353471

It sounds like you don't have anything to worry about unless you live in North Dakota. There's no federal law against individuals gambling online. (I don't even consider Intrade to be "gambling.")

Just my luck!

 

[Brett85]

Just my luck!

Lol. That's too bad. I'll remember to never move to North Dakota.

 

[Len Larson]

It's a strange situation. We've got indian casinos all over, tons of bingo halls, a state lottery and every little bar has blackjack and pull tabs.
So I don't see the purpose? I know some states attorneys, maybe one day when I'm feeling brave, I'll ask one of them for an opinion on Prediction Markets. The fact that we can buy or sell a position at any time for whatever price we can match, would lead me to think Intrade should be treated like the stock market or commodities futures. Until then, I'm keeping my head down.

 

[Eryxis]

We've got indian casinos all over, tons of bingo halls, a state lottery and every little bar has blackjack and pull tabs.
So I don't see the purpose?

You answered your own question. Those places lobbied well enough to get their competition outlawed. Online gambling, especially poker gives players such a better edge as compared to the brick and mortars. Why compete against someone online if you can just make it illegal to use their service?

 

[pauladin]

This gives us a 33% chance of winning NH if we win Iowa.

Obviously NH needs some work

wow. if iowa gets to fifty percent then we'll have a dice roll's chance of taking both states.

 

[Agorism]

The "noise" is no longer insignificant. You're going to have to change your calculations.

Ron Paul to win one (or more) Republican primary/caucus in 2012

Event: Will Ron Paul win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?
58.8%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91027

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
41.3%
CHANCE Predict

Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
38.0%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
9.9%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
5.2%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Perry to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
3.3%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749798