Ron Paul 3rd: 14% in NH

[werdd]

nice, we probably picked up some independents as well, we were at 28% maybe 36% now?

 

[d991]

Was this 14% only from REPUBLICAN voters in NH?!?

 

[MRoCkEd]

Was this 14% only from REPUBLICAN voters in NH?!?

good q

 

[Brennon]

"Survey of 441 Likely GOP Voters January 4, 2008"

I'm not sure if independents are included in 'likely GOP voters'.

 

[Karsten]

"Survey of 441 Likely GOP Voters January 4, 2008"

I'm not sure if independents are included in 'likely GOP voters'.

We need to find out exactly how they choose "likely GOP voters." Since we KNOW that RP won the independent vote in IA, this could make all the difference in NH.

 

[txrep]

American Research Group Tracking Poll
(600 Likely Voters/Jan 4-5/MOE 4.0)
Hold on your breath. This is after Rasmussen complete POST IOWA Polling)

Republican Primary
John McCain 39 %
Mitt Romney 25 %
Mike Huckabee 14 %
Rudy Giuliani 7 %
Ron Paul 6 %
Fred Thompson 1 %
Duncan Hunter 1 %
Alan Keyes 1 %
Undecided 6 %

**factors in independents**


Independents broke for McCain (44%). Paul got 7%.

 

[jd603]

Never heard of them, don't trust results... plenty of crap polls out there.

American Research Group Tracking Poll
(600 Likely Voters/Jan 4-5/MOE 4.0)
Hold on your breath. This is after Rasmussen complete POST IOWA Polling)

Republican Primary
John McCain 39 %
Mitt Romney 25 %
Mike Huckabee 14 %
Rudy Giuliani 7 %
Ron Paul 6 %
Fred Thompson 1 %
Duncan Hunter 1 %
Alan Keyes 1 %
Undecided 6 %

**factors in independents**


Independents broke for McCain (44%). Paul got 7%.

 

[txrep]

ARG is a local NH firm. They have a history (along with UNH) of being the best at polling the NH primary.

 

[hellsingfan]

don't let this dellude anybody that we don't need work done there. TAKE NOTHING for GRANTED. EVEN Alaska or Nevada. We need to get maximum amount of delegates, not just wins!!

 

[Falseflagop]

We need for RON PAUL to open the independents eyes on the WAR and call out OBAMA today and Edwards and Hillary!! He is the only hope to end the war!

 

[RevolutionSD]

WHY would independents go for McCain???????
He is absolutely NO DIFFERENT than Bush!!!!!
He is the worst kind of neocon and wants our troops getting blown up in Iraq for 100 more years! McCain is a washed up joke only supported by special interests and cronies!
Independents would be absolute FOOLS to vote McCain!! Didn't they learn from 2000?

 

[jd603]

McCain has some support here, but nothing compared to Ron so I don't understand this poll.

The NH company that worked with CNN in the early debates was completely fraudulent though. Is this the same group? They were as bad as Frank Luntz.

WHY would independents go for McCain???????
He is absolutely NO DIFFERENT than Bush!!!!!
He is the worst kind of neocon and wants our troops getting blown up in Iraq for 100 more years! McCain is a washed up joke only supported by special interests and cronies!
Independents would be absolute FOOLS to vote McCain!! Didn't they learn from 2000?

 

[jd603]

They weren't , they would have said so...

"Survey of 441 Likely GOP Voters January 4, 2008"

I'm not sure if independents are included in 'likely GOP voters'.

 

[Driftar]

Bump- keep things positive.

 

[Ball]

McCain is at 31%.

Got to get this video more exposure...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf7HYoh9YMM

"Make it 100"

 

[Terry82]

Never heard of them, don't trust results... plenty of crap polls out there.

You're delusional, paranoid, and spread misinformation widely. Give us an example of some 'non-crap' polls then?

NO POLL ignores what you guys consider independents and other groups. It would be stupid and meaningless in almost ANY STATE to disregard them, and they aren't unless the poll specifically states it only accounts for registered republicans or some other specific group.

Likely GOP primary voters means exactly what it says, people that are likely to vote in the upcoming GOP primary, be they independents, first time voters, republicans, or registered democrats just weeks ago.

 

[all J's in IL for RP]

ARG is a local NH firm. They have a history (along with UNH) of being the best at polling the NH primary.

ARG had us at 6% going into Iowa, with Guliani at 8% and Hunter with 4%. Their reliability rating with the campaigns and other pollsters is low.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_of_pollsters_rating_the_i.php

 

[Terry82]

Their reliability rating with the campaigns and other pollsters is low.

And the worst pollster on that list is apparently Zogby, which almost nailed the predictions.

 

[DanK]

Guys, I think this is great, but read the bottom, it's not a traditional phone poll:

These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Reading the fine print is good, but make sure you catch all of it. That was referring to this paragraph, which was right above it on the page:

Rasmussen Markets data at 9:00 a.m. on Saturday morning suggest that John McCain has a 73% chance of winning in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is given a 24% chance of winning (current numbers: McCain 81.9 %, Romney 18.8 %)

The tracking poll with RP at 14% was indeed a traditional phone poll.