Robert Sarvis didn’t cost Ken Cuccinelli the Virginia governor’s race

[GopBlackList]

Robert Sarvis didn’t cost Ken Cuccinelli the Virginia governor’s race

In the wake of state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s narrow loss to Gov.-elect Terry McAuliffe, many Republicans laid the blame for the defeat at the feet of Libertarian nominee Robert Sarvis, who took 6.5 percent of the vote. If only Sarvis hadn’t been in the race, a majority of his 145,560 votes would have gone to Cuccinelli and given the Republican just enough votes to overcome McAuliffe, the thinking goes. (Cuccinelli lost to McAuliffe by roughly 55,000 votes.)

But, that thinking is wrong. Check out this chart, built from the Virginia exit poll, that shows the three-way vote split and how it would have looked if the Sarvis voters had been dispersed among the two main candidates.

Cuccinelli would have gone from 45 percent to 46 percent. McAuliffe would have stayed at 48 percent — and won.

Perhaps the most interesting thing is that the vast majority of Sarvis supporters said that if he were not in the race they simply wouldn’t have voted. That’s evidence of the growing strain of libertarianism in the country and proof that while libertarians often throw in their political lot with Republicans, the two remain decidedly distinct groups.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...t-ken-cuccinelli-the-virginia-governors-race/

 

[Keith and stuff]

Yup. According to exit polls, the LP voters would have more likely gone to the Democratic Party candidate than the Republican Party candidate if it was just a 2 way race b/t the DP and the RP. So the LP helped the RP. But we have talked about this a bunch of times here and the response by some is that they don't believe the exit polls. So that's that

 

[69360]

Exit polls are notoriously wrong and unscientific. The exit polls in this race were within the MOE so there is no way to say.

Think about your own life, do you know anyone who would have voted democrat if there wasn't a libertarian party candidate? I don't.

 

[cjm]

Think about your own life, do you know anyone who would have voted democrat if there wasn't a libertarian party candidate? I don't.

I do. It's just anecdotal evidence and doesn't prove the exit polls, but I do know folks that would have voted for McAuliffe if Sarvis were not in the race. I agree with you that these things need to be considered within the context of MOE and how the sampling was done and how the questions were phrased and in what sequence they were offered. I find the polls believable in the sense that Sarvis drew roughly equally from both McAuliffe and Cuccinelli and that he also had some direct support (non-protest) from others.

 

[enoch150]

Exit polls are notoriously wrong and unscientific. The exit polls in this race were within the MOE so there is no way to say.

Think about your own life, do you know anyone who would have voted democrat if there wasn't a libertarian party candidate? I don't.

The former chairman of the Connecticut Libertarian Party had previously been a member of the Democratic Party. And another person registered as a Libertarian got elected on the Democratic line earlier this month. A lot of libertarians in Connecticut consider themselves "left libertarians". They're not the Barr/Root type libertarians that seem more common in the southeast.

Also, it wasn't just the exit poll that showed Sarvis pulling from the Democrat. The polls before the election showed the same.

 

[Tillett4Liberty]

I know Dems who voted for Sarvis instead of McAuliffe. And I don't think for a minute that Sarvis cost Cuccinelli the election. Cuccinelli's horrible campaign cost Cuccinelli the election.

 

[ClydeCoulter]

What might happen if the L party actually supported and promoted a liberty republican candidate (or a liberty democrat)? Do you think that would have any affect/effect on the outcome of a race?

 

[qh4dotcom]

I wonder why when the Republicans lose an election by a close margin, they blame the libertarian voters instead of folks who have voted Republican before who didn't show up to vote this time.

 

[cjm]

I wonder why when the Republicans lose an election by a close margin, they blame the libertarian voters instead of folks who have voted Republican before who didn't show up to vote this time.

/thread