Rand Paul Op-Ed: How Republicans Can Win California

[JCDenton0451]

Yes, from what I remember the Hispanics and Blacks opposed gay marriage. No Republican will win California if they plan on solely appealing to whites.

You guys are seriously behind the curve. Black and Hispanics support gay marriage now. For 1000th time minorities are not socially conservative: they may hold some backward views, but they don't vote based on them.

And yes, winning by appealing mostly to whites is perfectly possible. Republicans do this in Texas - a state with very similar demographics BTW.

 

[Brett85]

You guys are seriously behind the curve. Black and Hispanics support gay marriage now. For 1000th time minorities are not socially conservative: they may hold some backward views, but they don't vote based on them.

And yes, winning by appealing mostly to whites is perfectly possible. Republicans do this in Texas - a state with very similar demographics BTW.

The last poll I saw showed that Hispanics support gay marriage but blacks are opposed to it.

 

[JCDenton0451]

It makes no difference TC, because they don't prioritise social issues at the voting booth at all.

Yes it was stupid Pete Wilson that turned the California Hispanic electorate vastly democratic. His stupid proposition that was written like and out and out witch hunt against Hispanic looking people. the people passed it but the fallout in the following years sharply turned the Hispanic voters against republicans.

Wrong. It was labor unions who registered millions new Mexican voters, and Reagan who legalised them in the first place. Hispanic vote has always been overwhelmingly Democratic. You can look it up. There are statistics available since 1970.

Prop 187 was just a side-note. Why perpetuate this fallacy?

 

[JCDenton0451]

Something can be your base without stigmatizing your brand. Reagan won Maine and California. In the 1980's, the association with Southern Evangelicals wasn't so strong that it turned off secular whites. By 2012, it was so strong not even an Investment Banker Mormon from Boston could shake it. Evangelicals can make up the base, they just can't overpower the brand. See the Dems, where ghetto blacks comprise the base of a party that also includes hipster whites, rich Jews, and flamboyant homosexuals.

Great analogy BTW! Imagine if the Democratic platform was tailored to appeal exclusively to ghetto blacks, how many votes they would get?

 

[Distinguished Gentleman]

Oregon maybe. California may be beyond help

 

[Rudeman]

You guys are seriously behind the curve. Black and Hispanics support gay marriage now. For 1000th time minorities are not socially conservative: they may hold some backward views, but they don't vote based on them.

And yes, winning by appealing mostly to whites is perfectly possible. Republicans do this in Texas - a state with very similar demographics BTW.

What part of what I said was wrong? We get it you are socially liberal, think everyone else is socially liberal, and that the only way Rand will have a shot is if he also becomes socially liberal. You don't need to derail every thread.

 

[klamath]

It makes no difference TC, because they don't prioritise social issues at the voting booth at all.



Wrong. It was labor unions who registered millions new Mexican voters, and Reagan who legalised them in the first place. Hispanic vote has always been overwhelmingly Democratic. You can look it up. There are statistics available since 1970.

Prop 187 was just a side-note. Why perpetuate this fallacy?

You are pretty well wrong on everything you post. Wilson was elected and reelected many years after Reagan. Yes the Hispanic vote has always been democratic but when you go from very democratic to extremely democratic with the numbers of Hispanic voters in Ca it swings elections.

 

[ThePenguinLibertarian]

I dont think we can win California... 90% of Asians will support Democrats hands down for the most part, especially if Hillary runs. Asians like Hillary for some reason... I don't know why.

Sorry about my fellow asians.

NOT THIS ASIAN!

 

[JCDenton0451]

You are pretty well wrong on everything you post. Wilson was elected and reelected many years after Reagan. Yes the Hispanic vote has always been democratic but when you go from very democratic to extremely democratic with the numbers of Hispanic voters in Ca it swings elections.

How dim you are! Reagan passed his Amensty in 1986, but it took time for all these Mexicans to become citizens and eventually voters. It's a matter of gradual, but unrelenting demographic change. Eventually, the sheer number of Democratic voters becomes impossible to GOP base to overcome.

For GOP candidate to win California now, he would have to win support of a majority of Hispanics, which never happened in history.

What part of what I said was wrong? We get it you are socially liberal, think everyone else is socially liberal, and that the only way Rand will have a shot is if he also becomes socially liberal. You don't need to derail every thread.

You were wrong to imply that the GOP can connect with minorities on the basis of its SoCon agenda. Social Conservatism is a losing proposition nationally and for the future. This is not my opinion. That's the truth. It needs to be repeated over and over again until GOP abandons this thing.

 

[alucard13mm]

NOT THIS ASIAN!

that is great. i only know a few asians that is willing to vote republican/independent/libertarian. hehe.

 

[twomp]

People don't like bad policies. Just because California is all blue now doesn't mean it will remain this way for eternity. Bad policies will lead to a revolt. It' doesn't matter that the Democrats are soo beloved now. Once the state continues on the path it is currently headed, the people will vote the other way. Schools costs and the price of living here are ridiculous. The taxes are too high and the jobs are getting harder to find. I speak as a resident of California. A libertarian is just what our state needs.

 

[jmdrake]

Hate to say it, but this is like Rand visiting China for two days and then giving an opinion on Chinese culture and how to change it.

MSNBC reflects the average Californian more than anything. They believe that the GOP is made up of evil, racist, white men, who smoke cigars in back rooms with corporatists. Any talk about reducing regulation will be seen as confirmation of the GOP pushing the Corporatist agenda. Democrats here also believe that it's the Democrats who want to fix the tax system. Seriously. Democrats will pat each other on the back and say that if only the Democrats can take the House and Senate, then they can "fix" the tax code.

CA Democrats don't care about economic growth. Democrats don't care about school choice. Public schools are sacred, even if a lot of them send their kids to private schools. The Democrats hate the Constitution (it represents old, racist white men again). They only believe in the Bill of Rights when it suits them. The "heads of Google, Facebook and eBay" know that the Democrats will provide them with favors more than Republicans.

Rand is on track with opposing the war on drugs in California. They will like that. Fewer wars? They will like that too, as long as that includes full support of Israel. Defending freedom of the press will sell here. But the Democrats already take those positions for the most part, even if they are just paying lip service.

What will help in getting the California vote in a national general election is offering something that the Democrats don't already offer. A GOP candidate being from California might work. Other than that, good luck.

There are two reasons that making a California push makes sense regardless of whether a republican can actually win in the general election.

1) If the other side feels the state is in play they will use up valuable resources defending their own back yard.

2) If the local GOP activists think Rand is serious about their state, that could translate into them helping Rand in the California primary.

That said, while most California voters are democrat, they aren't monolithic. Latinos are more likely to be against gay marriage and abortion. (Prop 9 anyone?) blacks are also more likely than whites, though less than latinos, to be against gay marriage. Blacks are more likely to be against illegal immigration as they are more likely to compete with latinos for low to mid range jobs. And California elected a republican governor. I asked two uncles I have from Cali (one now decease) why Grey Davis lost his recall fight. The both said "Because he raised taxes too high." So yes, some democrats do care about economic issues.

 

[klamath]

How dim you are! Reagan passed his Amensty in 1986, but it took time for all these Mexicans to become citizens and eventually voters. It's a matter of gradual, but unrelenting demographic change. Eventually, the sheer number of Democratic voters becomes impossible to GOP base to overcome.

For GOP candidate to win California now, he would have to win support of a majority of Hispanics, which never happened in history.



You were wrong to imply that the GOP can connect with minorities on the basis of its SoCon agenda. Social Conservatism is a losing proposition nationally and for the future. This is not my opinion. That's the truth. It needs to be repeated over and over again until GOP abandons this thing.

Why have a GOP then. Why not just become happy little JCdenton democrats.

 

[JCDenton0451]

Why have a GOP then. Why not just become happy little JCdenton democrats.

If you really think that GOP's mission is to fight Abortion and gay marriage, then I feel sorry for you. The reality is people who run the Republican party are simply using these issues to win the affections of naive and religious people. You've been fooled. When Republicans had full control of the government during Bush administration they did nothing of substance on Abortion. But this pandering has gotten out of hand to the point that SoCon rhetoric alienates crucial groups of voters.

People don't like bad policies. Just because California is all blue now doesn't mean it will remain this way for eternity. Bad policies will lead to a revolt. It' doesn't matter that the Democrats are soo beloved now. Once the state continues on the path it is currently headed, the people will vote the other way. Schools costs and the price of living here are ridiculous. The taxes are too high and the jobs are getting harder to find. I speak as a resident of California. A libertarian is just what our state needs.

Perhaps. California independents and moderate Democrats might secretly wish for a libertarian. The problem GOP isn't libertarian, and not just because of its foreign policy belligerence, but also its retrograde social agenda. There is no reason why in the 21st century a vote for small government must also be a vote against gay marriage and for restrictions on abortion and birth control, creationism and abstinence-only sex ed in schools etc.

 

[jmdrake]

You guys are seriously behind the curve. Black and Hispanics support gay marriage now. For 1000th time minorities are not socially conservative: they may hold some backward views, but they don't vote based on them.

And yes, winning by appealing mostly to whites is perfectly possible. Republicans do this in Texas - a state with very similar demographics BTW.

No, blacks do not support gay marriage. A one time poll based on people blindly supporting Obama does not a trend make. A solid majority of blacks do not support gay marriage and there is far less support for gay marriage among blacks than among whites. And the fact that prop 8 passed in California shows that a majority of Californians do not support same sex marriage. I'm pretty sure that Hispanics carried the day on prop 8.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...assed-in-california-and-why-it-wouldnt-today/

 

[jmdrake]

If you really think that GOP's mission is to fight Abortion and gay marriage, then I feel sorry for you.

Right. The mission of the GOP is to force homeschoolers to accept a federally mandated curriculum and big government statism.

 

[JCDenton0451]

You should read the article you quoted. Its headline is
[h=1]"How Proposition 8 passed in California — and why it wouldn’t today"[/h]
Black are not socially conservative lol. Many of them simply hate gays, but their views are evolving...

 

[JCDenton0451]

Right. The mission of the GOP is to force homeschoolers to accept a federally mandated curriculum and big government statism.

Fresh polling from gallup suggests 48% of Americans aged 18 to 35 years see abortion as MORALLY acceptable.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/162881/older-americans-moral-attitudes-changing.aspx

50% of Americans aged 18-29 consider themselves pro-choice:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/162548/americans-misjudge-abortion-views.aspx

Lots of fascinating data in that table.

 

[supermario21]

50% is a low number though really, at that age demographic. Considering this is when most people are most liberal.

 

[JCDenton0451]

50% is a low number though really, at that age demographic. Considering this is when most people are most liberal.

You're speculating, but even if some of these millenials change their attitude when they have their own children, the fact remains: GOP is out of touch with the young voters and their values.

Also, important facts: we know that whites make up 60% of the millenial demographic, and whites are significantly more inclined to support abortion than minorities. This together with the fact that millenials overall are 50% pro-choice can only mean that white millenials are pro-choice by overwhelming margin.

Given all that it's not surprising that Romney only won 51% of white youth vote. Social conservatism appears to be driving younger whites away from GOP.