Rand at 5% in new American Research Group Poll in New Hampshire

[Brett85]

This could help Rand make the next debate if they go by percentages this time instead of trying to limit the number of participants. Although that might be hopeful thinking.

Trump: 27%
Kasich: 20%
Rubio: 10%
Christie: 9%
Cruz: 9%
Bush: 8%
Paul: 5%
Fiorina: 2%
Huckabee: 1%
Santorum: 1%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/nhrep.html

 

[Influenza]

Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one

 

[CPUd]

Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one

His campaign is spending everything on ads in NH.

 

[Alldayallie]

Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one

1) ARG is one of the most inaccurate pollsters
2) They push poll. This is the same one that pushed Huntsman in NH

 

[mwkaufman]

Wow Kasich at 20%. Even if he wins New Hampshire somehow he'd get clobbered by any other candidate in the South I think.

Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one

Huntsman Republicans exist in New Hampshire and almost nowhere else, so he could be getting like 5% from Romney voters and 15% from Huntsman voters.

 

[CPUd]

Carson polled 2% here, between Fiorina and Huck

 

[Crashland]

7th place won't help him qualify for a debate. If they pull the same kind of criteria as last time

 

[Brett85]

1) ARG is one of the most inaccurate pollsters
2) They push poll. This is the same one that pushed Huntsman in NH

They are inaccurate, but there have been other pollsters that have also been showing Kasich increasing support, and he's been getting a lot of Newspaper endorsements in New Hampshire. He's basically spending all of his money and time in New Hampshire.

 

[Brett85]

7th place won't help him qualify for a debate. If they pull the same kind of criteria as last time

Yeah I know, but if they use the same type of criteria that CNN used, getting 5% in New Hampshire polls will help him make the next debate.

 

[moraha]

Here comes the establishment push of Bush. I'm still not sure if they're going for him or Rubio though.

 

[limequat]

Here comes the establishment push of Bush. I'm still not sure if they're going for him or Rubio though.

I don't think they're sure.

 

[Joeinmo]

This could help Rand make the next debate if they go by percentages this time instead of trying to limit the number of participants. Although that might be hopeful thinking.

Trump: 27%
Kasich: 20%
Rubio: 10%
Christie: 9%
Cruz: 9%
Bush: 8%
Paul: 5%
Fiorina: 2%
Huckabee: 1%
Santorum: 1%

interesting that Carson is gone

 

[Welsh Paulite]

Kasich has a lot of the old Huntsman team on board - as well as a hint of McCain 2000 in the form of John Weaver. I think his surge is real. He has a decent operation and ground game in NH. I wouldn't underestimate Kasich, but all his eggs are firmly in the New Hampshire basket.

Rand at 5 isn't so bad. It's all to do with trend and momentum at the moment and at least he is ticking up slightly, unlike Carson who has dropped off a cliff.

 

[Welsh Paulite]

Then again, the pollster is ARG who, it is safe to say, don't have the best record for accuracy...

 

[Valli6]

Are Kasich's Huntsman people preparing a huge smear-Paul effort again?

Kasich has a lot of the old Huntsman team on board - as well as a hint of McCain 2000 in the form of John Weaver. I think his surge is real. He has a decent operation and ground game in NH. I wouldn't underestimate Kasich, but all his eggs are firmly in the New Hampshire basket.

So should we expect them to release a misleading video to smear Rand Paul the Friday before N.H.'s primary - like Huntsman's people did?? A video from an alleged "supporter" created just to makes Paul look bad and then the media can blame Rand and talk exclusively (and I mean ALL day long!) about his "racist supporters" nonstop during the Friday, Saturday and Sunday right before the primary takes place?

 

[EBounding]

1) ARG is one of the most inaccurate pollsters
2) They push poll. This is the same one that pushed Huntsman in NH

ARG gets a "C-" from 538

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

 

[Jeffster]

Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one

Kasich has the best resume of anyone running. And he's always been a very effective campaigner.

 

[Dianne]

Kasich at 20% blows my mind.

 

[jmdrake]

Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one

I have no freaking idea. I see people saying Kasich is spending all his money in New Hampshire. But that still doesn't make sense to me.

interesting that Carson is gone

Meh. NH isn't big on the evangelical vote.

 

[Welsh Paulite]

Maybe Valli6. There is certainly remnants of the Huntsman team there - with a dash of McCain and some local weight from Sununu. Dangerous in New Hampshire but it's hard to see how Kasich could possibly play in the South.