Quinnipiac Virginia Primary Poll [Romney v. Paul Head to Head]

[SCOTUSman]

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD]Candidate[/TD]
[TD]2/1-2/6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney[/TD]
[TD]68%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul
[/TD]
[TD]19%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Don't Know[/TD]
[TD]13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

35% Could change mind, 63% have mind made up (33% of Romney Supporters could change mind, 66% have mind made up; 45% of Paul supporters could change mind, 53% have mind made up).

From February 1 - 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,544 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary includes 546 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent. ​

IF all 4 candidates were on ballot:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD]Candidate[/TD]
[TD]2/1-2/6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney[/TD]
[TD]37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gingrich[/TD]
[TD]27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Santorum[/TD]
[TD]18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul[/TD]
[TD]12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Gingrich supporters go for Romney 70 to 10. Santorum supporters go for Romney 65-23.

Ron Paul Favorabilities:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD]Favorable[/TD]
[TD]38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Unfavorable[/TD]
[TD]35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Haven't Heard Enough[/TD]
[TD]25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

General Election:
Obama 47-Romney 43
Obama 47-Paul 40
Obama 49-Santorum 41
Obama 51-Gingrich 37

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institute...titute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1700

 

[stu2002]

WOW

 

[bluesc]

I'm surprised people weren't expecting this. Ron's head to head numbers against Romney are always this bad. I can't believe people expect Ron to have a chance in hell of winning Virginia.

 

[ross11988]

Uggghhhh

 

[SCOTUSman]

I'm surprised people weren't expecting this. Ron's head to head numbers against Romney are always this bad. I can't believe people expect Ron to have a chance in hell of winning Virginia.

People want Paul versus Romney 1 v 1 because of the anti-Romney vote

 

[bluesc]

People want Paul versus Romney 1 v 1 because of the anti-Romney vote

What they don't realize is that the anti-Paul vote is much more significant and much more dead set on not voting for the candidate they oppose.

 

[jkob]

Ouch.

I think if Newt and Frothy are still in the race at the time they could get their supporters to vote Paul as a means of denying Mitt the delegates

 

[SCOTUSman]

What they don't realize is that the anti-Paul vote is much more significant and much more dead set on not voting for the candidate they oppose.

At least his favorability numbers are a net positive. Nice to see that more people in the VA GOP view him favorable than unfavorable.

 

[SCOTUSman]

Ouch.

I think if Newt and Frothy are still in the race at the time they could get their supporters to vote Paul as a means of denying Mitt the delegates

possibly, but since it is 1 v 1...it is winner take all. The at large statewide delegates are winner take all (13 delegates there) and the 11 congressional districts are each winner take all (3 delegates each there)...It isn't proportional. So if we don't win on COngressional district, we get 0 delegates.

 

[Mordan]

I'm surprised people weren't expecting this. Ron's head to head numbers against Romney are always this bad. I can't believe people expect Ron to have a chance in hell of winning Virginia.

I was expecting this and it sucks.

How do you plan winning the nomination if you can't win head to head vs Romney? Santorum does it (kind of) in Colorado and 2 other states.

 

[bluesc]

At least his favorability numbers are a net positive. Nice to see that more people in the VA GOP view him favorable than unfavorable.

Then poll the ones who view him favorably and ask them who they think is more electable and has the better chance of winning the nomination.

Favorable numbers mean shit unless you can capitalize on them, and the campaign can't.

 

[rp08orbust]

What they don't realize is that the anti-Paul vote is much more significant and much more dead set on not voting for the candidate they oppose.

I don't think it's so much of an anti-Paul vote as an "electability" vote among the masses who have been brainwashed by Fox News into believing that Ron Paul can't beat Obama.

 

[AlexG]

That's pretty good, imagine if he starts campaigning there he could get 30%

 

[bluesc]

I don't think it's so much of an anti-Paul vote as an "electability" vote among the masses who have been brainwashed by Fox News into believing that Ron Paul can't beat Obama.

Also that.

 

[mavtek]

We have to hope Santorum and Grinch tell their supporters to vote Paul.

 

[neverseen]

i think the newt and sants will vote paul to deny romney. case in point, newt people voted for sant in missou to prevent romney last night.

 

[rp08orbust]

We have to hope Santorum and Grinch tell their supporters to vote Paul.

Neither has the organization to do so.

 

[Feeding the Abscess]

The anti-Paul sentiment is multitudes greater and more passionate than the anti-Mitt sentiment.

 

[Sematary]

It's still WAY early and if the campaign makes a concerted effort and pours some advertising dollars into Virginia then anything is possible. But, Ron is going to have to go after Romney hard on his record, plain and simple.

 

[cindy25]

its not 1 on 1; its 3 on 1; people will be voting for or against Romney.