Predict Rand's Iowa Percentage

[Brett85]

I think Cruz will be first at about 30% and Trump second with about 25%. Then Rand will come in 3rd with about 15% of the vote. Then everyone else will be in the single digits.

 

[LatinsforPaul]

Serious question and not intended to downplay the Iowa groundgame, but, why such optimism? Do we really think Rand will get 25%+ in Iowa? I know he will do well and snag some delegates, but I think we'd be lucky to break 10% in the current climate/field.

Rand's Super PAC...

Concerned American Voters got off the ground in June, and since then it has made 1.1 million voter contacts in Iowa to identify 37,352 likely caucus goers. They've been marked as certain to support, likely to support, or maybe to support Paul.

 

[limequat]

Serious question and not intended to downplay the Iowa groundgame, but, why such optimism? Do we really think Rand will get 25%+ in Iowa? I know he will do well and snag some delegates, but I think we'd be lucky to break 10% in the current climate/field.

You didn't see the thread about the Des Moines Register poll. This the first poll where they showed who the pollees voted for in 2012. 5% voted for Ron, when he actually got 21% in the caucus. A representative poll would have Rand getting about the same amount.

 

[WTLaw]

I have no idea, but best case scenario (which, in my honest opinion isn't impossible if the Cruz and Trump war heats up and creates casualties) is Rand at %20, Cruz at %19, Trump at %16, Rubio %14, Jeb %10, Carson %10 and the rest to the rest.

 

[derek4ever]

Concerned American Voters got off the ground in June, and since then it has made 1.1 million voter contacts in Iowa to identify 37,352 likely caucus goers. They've been marked as certain to support, likely to support, or maybe to support Paul.

If we can have each caucus goer contacted by the CAV group take at least 1 or 2 people, it could end up being huge!

 

[Champ]

Ron got just about 10% in 2008, his first Republican attempt at running for president and first ever caucus. This will be Rand's first attempt, so it's not too crazy to project him having similar results being the liberty candidate this cycle. As good as Ron was, it took him 2 runs at the presidency as a Republican, on top of a Libertarian run, to achieve his 20%+ results in Iowa in 2012.

I know we all want Rand to break everything open and shock the world here, and to some extent he definitely will when he outdoes all these ridiculous polls in the last few months, but I doubt he is going to get more than his father did.

People will say "well hey, what about the fact he has all those precinct chairs, he has way better ground game than his father ever did, and he's going to basically be living in Iowa right up until caucus night". And they are right. The problem is that Rand isn't as appealing to the same liberty movement that his father helped create and those were the people that showed up in droves to propel Ron as far as he was able to go. I think these two competing strengths and weaknesses going in here will balance this thing out to around 7-10%.

 

[jllundqu]

Ron got just about 10% in 2008, his first Republican attempt at running for president and first ever caucus. This will be Rand's first attempt, so it's not too crazy to project him having similar results being the liberty candidate this cycle. As good as Ron was, it took him 2 runs at the presidency as a Republican, on top of a Libertarian run, to achieve his 20%+ results in Iowa in 2012.

I know we all want Rand to break everything open and shock the world here, and to some extent he definitely will when he outdoes all these ridiculous polls in the last few months, but I doubt he is going to get more than his father did.

People will say "well hey, what about the fact he has all those precinct chairs, he has way better ground game than his father ever did, and he's going to basically be living in Iowa right up until caucus night". And they are right. The problem is that Rand isn't as appealing to the same liberty movement that his father helped create and those were the people that showed up in droves to propel Ron as far as he was able to go. I think these two competing strengths and weaknesses going in here will balance this thing out to around 7-10%.

Sensible analysis

 

[Influenza]

Can't imagine Rand getting more than 10%, but I would love to be proven very wrong.

 

[sumitz1207]

This feels like a severe case of groupthink.