PPP Washington

bluesc said:
Because if Santorum pulls off a win in Michigan, he would be the official frontrunner and Romney would be in big trouble. The campaign wants Santorum gone.
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Intrade has Santorum at 14%. Don't think that this is a 50-50 race right now. Romney has a huge advantage.

If Santorum won Michigan, it would mean chaos rather than him as the frontrunner.
 
bluesc said:
This isn't spin. They polled the caucus states ONE DAY before the voting began and they were as much as 13% off for one candidate, and similar numbers for others. Those polls had a MOE of ~3%. They can't poll caucus states.

There is no way to make people give up like you continue to attempt to, sorry.
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Absolute baloney. Which states? So many in here still don't understand polls. PPP were dead on for Nevada that everyone was saying Ron could win because of the ground game. They didn't do Maine. And in SC they were correct in the direction of Newt. They were correct in the direction of Santorum in Iowa. What polls cannot predict is when there is someone surging or falling what the final number will be. Many confuse that with a poll being off therefore they are wrong and always wrong. Simply not true. Also, polls cannot predict how the undecideds will fall especially in a 4 way race. Polls are a scientific point in time snap shot that is accurate within the MOE.

This WA poll is bad news for Ron as of this minute. And there is currently no indication of momentum for anyone. Just because we recognize reality does not mean we have given up.
 
Washington will perform far better than that. I can't say where we're going to come in, but if we get less than 20% I'll eat my shorts.

I am *completely* expecting over 30% for Paul, but overwhelmingly winning delegates to state.
 
Liberty74 said:
Absolute baloney. Which states? So many in here still don't understand polls. PPP were dead on for Nevada that everyone was saying Ron could win because of the ground game. They didn't do Maine. And in SC they were correct in the direction of Newt. They were correct in the direction of Santorum in Iowa. What polls cannot predict is when there is someone surging or falling what the final number will be. Many confuse that with a poll being off therefore they are wrong and always wrong. Simply not true. Also, polls cannot predict how the undecideds will fall especially in a 4 way race. Polls are a scientific point in time snap shot that is accurate within the MOE.

This WA poll is bad news for Ron as of this minute. And there is currently no indication of momentum for anyone. Just because we recognize reality does not mean we have given up.
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Minnesota and Colorado. That "accurate snapshot" one day before voting stripped PPP of all credibility when polling caucus states.

You're absolutely right about them not being able to predict where undecideds go. When they put out a pull showing a certain thing, it influences where undecideds go and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
 
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The first poster is absolutely correct. 2008 had a primary and caucus. 2012 will only have a caucus. No one knows what the turnout will be but I'd expect it to be much larger than 2008 so the 8,000 attending his rallies may not be so much.

2008 beauty contest primary (feb 19): 530,000 votes
2008 caucus (feb 9): 12,300 votes
 
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Ron Paul got 21% in Washington State in 2008, and he has increased his percentage in every single state so far. Therefore, it would be astoundingly disappointing if he got less than that in Washington. It would really mean that the GOP has decided to commit collective by becoming the Santorum party.
 
I am reluctant to believe a lot of these polls. I've tried phone banking and half the people I talk to say that they don't talk politics with people. How can they accurately poll people who won't talk about politics with other people.
 
hell if the folks who showed up for the Ron Paul events would just show up to caucus we would kick some serious ass!
 
Like i've said before, how the hell is Santorum leading in a state that is on the verge of legalizing marijuana???
 
I can't believe some people would panic over a caucus poll - they don't have a good track record....

10mqv0h.jpg
 
I've come to the conclusion that most of the people in this country don't care about politics and just want someone who looks like a POTUS from some Hollywood movie. When I have gotten the chance to talk to Santorum supporters (I've only met 3) none of them knew about the extreme statements he has made and only care that he can "beat Obama" and that he will bomb the hell out of any country that disagrees with us. Remember, the Republicans voted in Bush, not just once but twice and even Dems aren't any better because they all voted Obama in when if they had done any research they would have realized he wouldn't do anything he said. It is really sad but these are the people (Republicans) who want an alternative to the current candidates so bad that they can't stop badgering Chris Christie and Jeb Bush to jump in the race.
 
DerailingDaTrain said:
I've come to the conclusion that most of the people in this country don't care about politics and just want someone who looks like a POTUS from some Hollywood movie. When I have gotten the chance to talk to Santorum supporters (I've only met 3) none of them knew about the extreme statements he has made and only care that he can "beat Obama" and that he will bomb the hell out of any country that disagrees with us. Remember, the Republicans voted in Bush, not just once but twice and even Dems aren't any better because they all voted Obama in when if they had done any research they would have realized he wouldn't do anything he said. It is really sad but these are the people (Republicans) who want an alternative to the current candidates so bad that they can't stop badgering Chris Christie and Jeb Bush to jump in the race.
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Well, Bush Jr. seemed reasonable the first go around. He stole the election of 2004. Soooo
 
I'm in WA state and I'll tell you that I've been panicking, but I'll tell you why this is a good thing..... Due to my panick, I just called up 15 people and told them that I BEG them to come caucus and got their word, even total liberals I called and got them to agree to caucus by promising that I'll buy them dinner. Guys/women: I am nobody, just a passionate person and I just called and got promises from people who didnt even come to the rally to promise as a friend that they come caucus. Of those people, about 7 are full supporters and I made them promise to bring their parents/grandparents and friends. That probably went from 15 people to 40 people. If we just get turn out, we win! Please do the same guys!
 
If I recall correctly, this poll was a ridiculous 50% evangelicals.
Don't think that will hold in a state like Washington.
 
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