PPP MN Presidential caucus poll

[rp2012win]

I'm calling BS on this poll. Has paul at 5% with ages 46-65. The worst he did with this group was 11% in SC. And they only surveyed 303 people and the margin of error is nearly 6%. And was conducted saturday and sunday while people were watching news coverage of gingrich punishing romney in SC.

 

[Esoteric]

Guess that Ventura endorsement didn't help too much..

 

[cstarace]

I'm calling BS on this poll. Has paul at 5% with ages 46-65. The worst he did with this group was 11% in SC. And they only surveyed 303 people and the margin of error is nearly 6%.

This. Paul is going to be campaigning like a madman in these caucus states. Too early to pay attention to the polls. Everyone keep your heads down and keep working!

 

[bluesc]

Guess that Ventura endorsement didn't help too much..

I refuse to believe it! He is loved by Americans!

 

[stillhere]

Head to head numbers within the GOP for Minnesota in this poll:

Gingrich 50%
Romney 29%
Not Sure 21%

---

Santorum 46%
Romney 34%
Not Sure 20%

---

Romney 51%
Paul 29%
Not Sure 20%

 

[bluesc]

Head to head numbers within the GOP for Minnesota in this poll:

Gingrich 50%
Romney 29%
Not Sure 21%

---

Santorum 46%
Romney 34%
Not Sure 20%

---

Romney 51%
Paul 29%
Not Sure 20%

It looks like that in every state. The anti-Romney argument sucks. Now they have silenced that and are switching to "we don't even need to win a state to win the nomination".

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Newt finished last amongst the remaining candidates in Iowa.

Perry, Bachmann and Huntsman were still running on January 3.

 

[stillhere]

Are you people kidding me??? Jesse Ventura's approval rating was in the TEENS when he left office. In the early year of 2002, less than 30% of Minnesota believed he deserved to be reelected. He took a lot of heat for how he handled the Paul Wellstone death.....and then the 9/11 attacks and his conspiracy theories. Jesse Ventura is WILDLY unpopular and disliked.

 

[da32130]

Head to head numbers within the GOP for Minnesota in this poll:

Gingrich 50%
Romney 29%
Not Sure 21%

---

Santorum 46%
Romney 34%
Not Sure 20%

---

Romney 51%
Paul 29%
Not Sure 20%

Anybody but Romney, unless it is Paul. Pretty standard stuff.

The reason why this state matters isn't because we expect it to be different, but because it is a caucus state in neutral territory. Winning it is based on increased turnout similar to 2008.

Here is a repeat for new viewers:
Just for reference. Here is the turnout factor from 2008 (all results from before Feb 10, when most candidates still in, list by date):

caucus:
Iowa 10%
Nevada 14%
Maine 18%
Alaska 17%
Colorado 9%
Minnesota 16%
Montana 25%
North Dakota 21%
Washington 22%
Kansas 11%

primary:
New Hampshire 8%
Michagan 6%
South Carolina 4%
Florida 3%
Alabama 3%
Tennessee 6%
Connecticut 4%
Arizona 4%
Georgia 3%
Delaware 4%
California 4%
Arkansas 5%
etc.

The lowest caucus was 9%, the highest primary was 8%.
The highest caucus was 25%, the lowest primary was 3%.

Turnout can make a huge difference.

 

[pauliticalfan]

I've thought that the anti-Romney strategy was pretty bad all along. The split-field strategy is far better.

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

I've thought that the anti-Romney strategy was pretty bad all along. The split-field strategy is far better.

How? Everyone is paying attention to Romney and Gingrich only. The incentive for the large portion of the GOP primary electorate that doesn't like Ron Paul to vote for Paul is gone, now that there is a viable not-Romney candidate.

 

[da32130]

How? Everyone is paying attention to Romney and Gingrich only. The incentive for the large portion of the GOP primary electorate that doesn't like Ron Paul to vote for Paul is gone, now that there is a viable not-Romney candidate.

This is only until Florida. Right after Florida when four caucus states happen the dynamic might change again.

Here is a repeat for new viewers:
Just for reference. Here is the turnout factor from 2008 (all results from before Feb 10, when most candidates were still in, listed by date):

caucus:
Iowa 10%
Nevada 14%
Maine 18%
Alaska 17%
Colorado 9%
Minnesota 16%
Montana 25%
North Dakota 21%
Washington 22%
Kansas 11%

primary:
New Hampshire 8%
Michagan 6%
South Carolina 4%
Florida 3%
Alabama 3%
Tennessee 6%
Connecticut 4%
Arizona 4%
Georgia 3%
Delaware 4%
California 4%
Arkansas 5%
etc.

The lowest caucus was 9%, the highest primary was 8%.
The highest caucus was 25%, the lowest primary was 3%.

Turnout can make a huge difference.

 

[SovereignMN]

SovereignMN, can you give us a feel for how we are in MN now vs 2008 (ads, signs, etc)? Was there any visible sign that we would do so well in 2008?

There weren't too many signs back in 2008 and there aren't alot today either. Most Minnesotans don't put up yard signs in the winter because the ground is frozen. My own perception, viewed through just my own lenses, is that there is more support for Ron Paul this time around than in 2008. I know of at least a dozen friends/acquaintences that did not caucus for Ron Paul last time that are this time. One was an Obama supporter, one was a Huckabee supporter, the rest stayed at home and this will be their first caucus.

 

[da32130]

There weren't too many signs back in 2008 and there aren't alot today either. Most Minnesotans don't put up yard signs in the winter because the ground is frozen. My own perception, viewed through just my own lenses, is that there is more support for Ron Paul this time around than in 2008. I know of at least a dozen friends/acquaintences that did not caucus for Ron Paul last time that are this time. One was an Obama supporter, one was a Huckabee supporter, the rest stayed at home and this will be their first caucus.

Great news. Thanks for sharing.

This is in line with Paul polling higher now than in 2008. So if we got 16% in 2008 while only polling at 5% it would lead one to believe we could do even better this year.

How we do in Nevada on the 4th, three days before Minnesota, looks like it will be our first big tell on how turnout is fairing for us this year.

 

[huckans]

The highest primary was not 8% in NH. The highest primary was 16% in PA. PA was also the highest number of votes (even more votes than CA!)

 

[WD-NY]

This is only until Florida. Right after Florida when four caucus states happen the dynamic might change again.

Newt finished last amongst the remaining candidates in Iowa. And essentially tied for last in NH. Yet he won in the next state.

He may do well in Florida, but within a few days Paul may do well in the next four states Coloroda, Nevada, Maine, and Minnesota. After those it is a couple weeks before another primary. Hypothetically, if Paul were to win 1-4 of those the narrative could change again.

And what makes you (or anyone else) think that Paul can/will 1 of the caucus states??

If Team Paul (re: the campaign) was actually serious about the 'caucus delegates ftw' strategy, Ron would be hosting 3 events-per-day/2-states-per-week both last week and this week.

Instead, Ron took 4 days off last week and 4 days off this week (sorry, showing up for debates doesn't count... nor does phoning in interviews to NPR).

How much longer is Team Paul going to keep pushing this FUD before the damage becomes irreversible (e.g. single digits + 4th place onTuesday)? The donations are drying up not because of Ron's 4th place finish in SC... they're drying up because RON = MIA from the campaign trail.

• The argument that FL = expensive is a total canard. It doesn't cost any money to hold town halls or meet & greet sessions. It doesn't cost any money to deliver a big speech.

The campaign needs to start playing it straight or the grassroots is going to meltdown just like it did in 2008... It's not losing that crushes spirits and destroys moral, it's selling us a bill of goods like "we're focused on winning caucus states" then not even visiting those states during their 2 weeks of "not campaigning" in SC & FL.

Does anyone here honestly think any of us would be making a stink if the campaign schedule looked like this today, tomorrow and Friday?

Wednesday (Nevada):
10:00 ... Speech at College Y
11:30 ... Speech at University X
12:30 ... Veterans town hall meeting
14:30 ... Florida Seniors town hall meeting
19:00 ... Town hall meeting Reno

Thursday (Florida):
11:00 ... Town Hall + Q&A
14:00 ... Meet & Greet at Senior Center
19:00 ... CNN Debate

Friday (Minn):
10:00 ... Q&A at College X
11:30 ... Speech at College Y
14:00 ... Town Hall in Minneapolis

Saturday (Maine):
10:00 ... Event 1
13:00 ... Event 2
17:00 ... Event 3
etc.
etc.

Instead it's more like what EndtheECB imagined:

10:00-15:00 ... Read economics textbook from 1952 in the hammock
15:00-16:00 ... Help my wife cook delicious dish from the Ron Paul Famliy cook book
17:00-17:45 ... Take a ride on my bicycle

The MSM's negative bias towards Ron means that he (and the campaign!) have to hustle twice as hard to get the same the amount of local coverage as the other 3 candidate. Right now, Ron & Co. aren't even trying (which is 10x more frustrating/soul-crushing than giving it their all, but losing in the end)

 

[69360]

The highest primary was not 8% in NH. The highest primary was 16% in PA. PA was also the highest number of votes (even more votes than CA!)

I was one of those votes and Ron is very popular here.

But you have to put it into perspective. At that point McCain had the nomination locked in and everyone else had dropped out.

 

[AngryCanadian]

Santorum Santorum errrr

 

[da32130]

The highest primary was not 8% in NH. The highest primary was 16% in PA. PA was also the highest number of votes (even more votes than CA!)

I was only looking at pre feb 10th states.

 

[tbone717]

The highest primary was not 8% in NH. The highest primary was 16% in PA. PA was also the highest number of votes (even more votes than CA!)

Keep in mind PA was meaningless, McCain had it by then. They were essentially protest votes. I wouldn't use that number as a measure of current support. I think Paul was the only other choice on the ballot.