PPP MN Presidential caucus poll

[69360]

Keep in mind PA was meaningless, McCain had it by then. They were essentially protest votes. I wouldn't use that number as a measure of current support. I think Paul was the only other choice on the ballot.

Huckabee appeared on the ballot, but had already dropped out. He got 11%

 

[da32130]

And what makes you (or anyone else) think that Paul can/will 1 of the caucus states??

Because Caucus results in 2008 were 3x what primary results were (3-8% primary vs 9-25% caucus).

So if Paul is polling in the teens now it could translate into 30-50% caucus results. These numbers give us some chance in almost every caucus state.

 

[WD-NY]

Because Caucus results in 2008 were 3x what primary results were (3-8% primary vs 9-25% caucus).

So if Paul is polling in the teens now it could translate into 30-50% caucus results. These numbers give us some chance in almost every caucus state.

::sigh::

And how do we triple our 2008 numbers when Ron is relaxing in TX phoning in interviews and 'raising money'?? If the caucuses are so important, than wouldn't it make sense for Ron to be visiting as many media markets as possible while Romney & Gingrich are fighting over FL?? With no other candidates in town, the local media would have no alternative but to give Ron A MOUNTAIN OF FREE PRESS/COVERAGE.

And yet... Ron hasn't visited ANY OF THE CAUCUS STATES this week or last.

 

[tbone717]

Huckabee appeared on the ballot, but had already dropped out. He got 11%

Good memory

 

[da32130]

::sigh::

And how do we triple our 2008 numbers when Ron is relaxing in TX phoning in interviews and 'raising money'??

They are ALREADY tripled. We were polling at 3-6% last time and got 9-25% in caucuses.

Now we are polling in the teens and could expect 30-50%. Without Paul doing anything.

He is in this for another 6 months and pacing himself.

 

[Moebedda]

That's why we should form our own party.. GOP is dying anyways and we shouldn't be a part of this corrupt organization.

This

 

[phil4truth]

::sigh::

And how do we triple our 2008 numbers when Ron is relaxing in TX phoning in interviews and 'raising money'?? If the caucuses are so important, than wouldn't it make sense for Ron to be visiting as many media markets as possible while Romney & Gingrich are fighting over FL?? With no other candidates in town, the local media would have no alternative but to give Ron A MOUNTAIN OF FREE PRESS/COVERAGE.

And yet... Ron hasn't visited ANY OF THE CAUCUS STATES this week or last.

What is with all the negativity and misinformation? You couldn't be any further from the truth:

Why Ron Paul is shivering in Maine instead of cavorting in Florida


The other three GOP presidential candidates are stumping in Florida ahead of the Jan. 31 primary, a winner-take-all-delegates affair. But not Ron Paul. Here's why he's up in Maine.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politi...ring-in-Maine-instead-of-cavorting-in-Florida

Seriously guys stop allowing yourselves to get disheartened. Ron will do very well. What is the sense in him wasting his time and resources in Florida in a winner take all primary? The drop in morale for some is the inherent human desire for constant success and frustration with anything less. Ron finishing 4th in SC was not a set back considering the increase in his votes from 2008 and he will get 3rd in FL and it's onwards and upwards. Just acknowledge that these poll results are not always true. They are released in order to influence voters at decisive stages and they are very biased towards our campaign as are the MSM as is the establishment. We have known that for the past 4 years and we know it even more today and that places us at an advantage in that we know the lay of the battleground and we know everyone on that battleground are there to see that we don't succeed.

What the campaign is doing is chosing its battles carefully and all this talk of difficulty for the campaign raising money - some people need a poke in the eye with a big stick. The campaign's fundraising is doing very well.

Negative people...what else can I say?

 

[ronpaulhawaii]

“Any fool can criticize, condemn, and complain – and most fools do.” – Dale Carnegie

“Do not listen to those who weep and complain, for their disease is contagious.” – Og Mandino

“When you consistently maintain a positive frame of mind, you’ll become known as a problem-solver rather than a complainer. People avoid complainers. They seek out problem-solvers.” – Joseph Sommerville

“Realize that if you have time to whine and complain about something then you have the time to do something about it.” – Anthony J. D’Angelo,

 

[Shane Harris]

Santorum??

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

look. its not fair for us to ask so much out of dr paul :3. he has a life too! he already sacrificed a lot.

 

[Fraulein]

They won't let Ron win. These boys play hardball. We all have to deal with it.

Everyone has heard Ron's message. The next best thing he can do is get this country on the right track by disrupting the left/right paradigm.

This.

 

[tbone717]

That's why we should form our own party.. GOP is dying anyways and we shouldn't be a part of this corrupt organization.

It's been done before and it just doesn't work - LP, CP, Green, Reform, etc. A legitimate third party, that would truly have influence and a chance to win, needs to come from within the existing party. You would need a nice handful of Congressmen, Senators, State Reps, State Senators and Governors to leave the GOP and form a new party. It takes so much more than one man to pull it off.

Remember that John Anderson left the GOP and ran as an Independent. It didn't work. Perot ran as an Independent, and then formed the Reform Party. It didn't work. The LP and CP have existed for years and have yet to win anything above a state house race (in fact its been almost a dozen years since the LP has won a state level office). The Green Party --- the same thing. Zero, zilch, nothing...there is zero chance that it will have any effect.

If Paul runs as an independent, third party candidate or states a new party he will get support only from the hardcore Paul supporters. Polls show that about 40% of Paul's support are part of the No One But Paul crowd. That means nationally in a three-way race he'd be polling around 5 percent or so.

Then you have to consider the money it would take to run a campaign nationally. It is a struggle now to raise a few million with a moneybomb and he is actually in contention to win the GOP nomination. How much harder will it be to raise 100's of millions when his campaign is essentially quixotic. I know I wouldn't be able to sacrifice anymore money to the campaign, nor would I be able to volunteer hours and hours of time for a campaign that has no shot at winning.

 

[da32130]

“Any fool can criticize, condemn, and complain – and most fools do.” – Dale Carnegie

“Do not listen to those who weep and complain, for their disease is contagious.” – Og Mandino

“When you consistently maintain a positive frame of mind, you’ll become known as a problem-solver rather than a complainer. People avoid complainers. They seek out problem-solvers.” – Joseph Sommerville

“Realize that if you have time to whine and complain about something then you have the time to do something about it.” – Anthony J. D’Angelo,

bump


Here is a repeat for new viewers:
Just for reference. Here is the turnout factor from 2008 (all results from before Feb 10, when most candidates were still in, listed by date):

caucus:
Iowa 10%
Nevada 14%
Maine 18%
Alaska 17%
Colorado 9%
Minnesota 16%
Montana 25%
North Dakota 21%
Washington 22%
Kansas 11%

primary:
New Hampshire 8%
Michagan 6%
South Carolina 4%
Florida 3%
Alabama 3%
Tennessee 6%
Connecticut 4%
Arizona 4%
Georgia 3%
Delaware 4%
California 4%
Arkansas 5%
etc.

The lowest caucus was 9%, the highest primary was 8%.
The highest caucus was 25%, the lowest primary was 3%.

Turnout can make a huge difference.

 

[Keith and stuff]

To kickstart a viable alternative party for those of us who believe in constitutional government. Ron wouldn't win, but if he could get say 20% of the vote it could start something good.

Why do we need a alternative party for that? We already have the Republican Party. We have around 90 libertarian in the New Hampshire House of Representatives right now. People that believe in constitutional government are very welcomed to partake in the Republican Party, at least where I live.

If people where you live are not welcome in the Republican Party, I suggest either changing that or moving so where else.

 

[tbone717]

bump


Here is a repeat for new viewers:
Just for reference. Here is the turnout factor from 2008 (all results from before Feb 10, when most candidates were still in, listed by date):

caucus:
Iowa 10%
Nevada 14%
Maine 18%
Alaska 17%
Colorado 9%
Minnesota 16%
Montana 25%
North Dakota 21%
Washington 22%
Kansas 11%

primary:
New Hampshire 8%
Michagan 6%
South Carolina 4%
Florida 3%
Alabama 3%
Tennessee 6%
Connecticut 4%
Arizona 4%
Georgia 3%
Delaware 4%
California 4%
Arkansas 5%
etc.

The lowest caucus was 9%, the highest primary was 8%.
The highest caucus was 25%, the lowest primary was 3%.

Turnout can make a huge difference.

It is doable. But we need a targeted focus by the campaign and the grassroots to pull it off. Sign waving in a state that doesn't vote until May just doesn't cut it right now. We need everyone that is able to focus on NV, ME, MN and CO.

 

[tbone717]

To kickstart a viable alternative party for those of us who believe in constitutional government. Ron wouldn't win, but if he could get say 20% of the vote it could start something good.

Love my PA friends, but 20% won't start anything. Perot got 18.9% in 1992. He formed the Reform Party. He got 8.4% in 1996. Buchanan got their nomination in 2000 and got 0.43%. Nader got 0.38% in 2004. And in 2008 Ted Weill got a whopping 481 votes. Hell I could get 481 votes just by getting my Facebook friends to vote for me.

 

[da32130]

It is doable. But we need a targeted focus by the campaign and the grassroots to pull it off. Sign waving in a state that doesn't vote until May just doesn't cut it right now. We need everyone that is able to focus on NV, ME, MN and CO.

right. that is why I gave the bump to ronpaulhawaii, but I should have included the phone from home stuff as well that was located in his footer.

 

[MrGoose]

Likely republican caucus goers? Isn't it an open caucus?

 

[tbone717]

right. that is why I gave the bump to ronpaulhawaii, but I should have included the phone from home stuff as well that was located in his footer.

Yeah, it is a huge key to it all. I cannot stress the need for focus enough. I shake my head when I see people posting on here about voter fraud in states that already voted, twitter bombs of PPP because they don't like a poll result, sign waves in New Jersey (they vote in late June). I don't think people understand the urgency that was are facing right now. This is it. I and many others here, have been at this for 20+ years and have been waiting for the opportunity to have a realistic shot at winning. To see people that have such good intentions, be so scattered in their focus is heart wrenching.

 

[Keith and stuff]

The highest primary was not 8% in NH. The highest primary was 16% in PA. PA was also the highest number of votes (even more votes than CA!)

You cannot honestly think Ron Paul did better in the PA Primary than the NH Primary, can you? There were 23 candidates in the NH Primary. It was by far the most competitive and important Primary in the nation. There were only 2 candidates in PA and the percentage of people that voted was a joke compared to the NH Primary. Huckabee withdrew like 6-7 weeks before the Primary and still was within 30,000 votes of Ron Paul.

The NH Primary was likely the best Primary for Ron Paul in 2008. If you ignore the number of candidates, I could also see a case for MT but that is a stretch, to me.