PPP 2016 GOP Poll - New Hampshire (Jan 14) / Rand in 2nd at 12%

[tsai3904]

New Hampshire
January 9-12, 2014
528 Republican primary voters
+/-4.3%

Christie 24%
Paul 12%
Bush 12%
Huckabee 11%
Cruz 9%
Rubio 8%
Ryan 4%
Jindal 3%
Walker 3%

 

[Brett85]

I guess the bridge scandal really woke Republicans up to Christie's shortcomings. Not.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

I guess the bridge scandal really woke Republicans up to Christie's shortcomings. Not.

More like a rally round the family affect in certain corners.

 

[whoisjohngalt]

I guess the bridge scandal really woke Republicans up to Christie's shortcomings. Not.

Stay calm. It's still relatively early to determine the effect of these scandals. The biggest thing Christie had going for him was the electability argument. Before these scandals polls had him neck and neck with Hillary if not slightly ahead. The only poll taken since shows him down 13 points to her.

Just be patient.

 

[jtstellar]

all i see here is establishment vote is around 24+12+8% and everything else is up for grabs

 

[twomp]

I guess the bridge scandal really woke Republicans up to Christie's shortcomings. Not.

The GOP nominated Mitt Romney to run for President. They were able to get the sheep who "supposedly" hated Obamacare to nominate the architect of Obamacare. That alone should show the power of the media. Sheep will do what sheep do. Follow.

 

[helenpaul]

why does anyone support rubio?

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

MSNBC goes all-out attacking a Republican = Republicans support them more.

It's a formula that's been shown over and over in the past. This should be just a temporary surge, fading away after all the Christie coverage ceases.

 

[mz10]

More like a rally round the family affect in certain corners.

With a pocket full of shells?

 

[WD-NY]

all i see here is establishment vote is around 24+12+8% and everything else is up for grabs

This.

The best/right way to look at most polls is to break it down into a single "establishment" (re: Christie+Bush+others) vote vs conservative/tea-party (re: Rand+Cruz+others

(the difficult part is figuring out how to divide up the support of some of the lower polling candidates i.e. does Rubio's entire 8% = establishment or do 50% of Rubio supporters = conservative/tea-party?)

 

[WD-NY]

MSNBC goes all-out attacking a Republican = Republicans support them more.

It's a formula that's been shown over and over in the past. This should be just a temporary surge, fading away after all the Christie coverage ceases.

There's also the addition of Huckabee...

No doubt, the second choice of most of his supporters = Rand (and/or Cruz).

 

[anaconda]

why does anyone support rubio?

He's relatively young, decent looking by Senate standards, and heavily marketed as an insurgent, anti-Washington, D.C. Tea Party candidate.

 

[anaconda]

all i see here is establishment vote is around 24+12+8% and everything else is up for grabs

I see every name on this list as establishment, except for Paul. Possibly Cruz.

 

[Crashland]

The two keys to the nomination are (1) not splitting your vote with other candidates, and splitting your opponents' votes, and (2) surviving a series of relentless, brutal character assassination attempts.

 

[Matthew5]

Rand in 2nd*...

*in a four way statistical tie

The Christie news was still fresh around the 9th and 10th, plus there was still no concrete evidence he was directly responsible (is how I imagine a GOP voter would see it).

 

[MRK]

We need to air some NH ads to shore up support to put Paul back on top, PRONTO!

*blows dust off cover* This one looks good for NH!

 

[Matthew5]

We need to air some NH ads to shore up support to put Paul back on top, PRONTO!

*blows dust off cover* This one looks good for NH!

"He's catching on, I'm tellin' ya!"

 

[Varin]

There's also the addition of Huckabee...

No doubt, the second choice of most of his supporters = Rand (and/or Cruz).

Huckabee takes evenly from across the field if you check the crosstabs. w/o Huck Rand 14 Cruz 10 Christie 14

 

[69360]

Poll taken the 9-12. When did the bridge thing make the news?

Consistently 2 and 3 is a good place to be this early. Let the others be frontrunners and take the heat and scandals.

 

[asurfaholic]

Live free or die state is 2% polling worse than neocon / central banking haven NC.

Explain that...?