WD-NY
Member
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2011
- Messages
- 1,787
I just think the only way a non-establishment person is going to take the nomination is if the tea party, conservatives and libertarians unify early on with a single candidate.
All the above are willing to unify on Rand but there are plenty of other candidates who could get in the way. All the conservative pundits keep saying "we need to look at the conservative governors" and never mention Rand.
If Rand took the first two states I think the alliance is possible and I really don't see any candidate that isn't establishment (not just liberty, but not establishment) that could do it.
Rand stands thebestONLY chance if it becomes "Rand vs. Bush (or whoever)" early on.
If another "tea party" or "conservative" won Iowa, then Rand won NH, those two candidates would be splitting the conservative vote in other contests meanwhile the establishment will probably be fully unified behind their guy.
This x1000.
There is ONLY ONE WAY for the single establishment candidate to win: SPLIT the conservative/tea party BETWEEN AT LEAST 2 candidates. That's it. Period.
If Rand loses any of the early primaries (re: Iowa, NH, NV or South Carolina) to Cruz or any other "non-establishment" candidate, the MSM and GOP establishment will put everything they've got into extending the runway for Cruz (or whoever they can prop up to take votes away from Rand) with millions in 'un-earned' & super positive media.
So no, Rand can't lose Iowa or South Carolina like Reagan, Bush, McCain, Romney did. THE RULES ARE DIFFERENT FOR RAND. No doubt Rand & co. understand this, but it would be helpful for the grassroots to understand as well.