Mark37snj
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This is the Real Clear Politics Poll averages.
Poll Date......................................Sample....MoE.............Gingrich......Romney.....Paul.....Santorum.....Perry.......Spread...........Undecided*
RCP Average 1/17 - 1/19...................--..........--................32.4..........30.4........13.4.......11.2.........3.0........Gingrich +2.0.......12.6
Clemson 1/18 - 1/19.......................429 LV.....4.7 ..............32 ............26 ..........11...........9..............--........Gingrich +6.........22.0
PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/19........................836 LV....3.4................35 ............29 ..........15 .........15.............--........Gingrich +6..........6.0
Rasmussen Reports 1/18 - 1/18........750 LV.....4.0...............33.............31...........15..........11...............2........Gingrich +2........10.0
Insider Advantage 1/18 - 1/18.........718 LV.....3.6................32.............29...........15..........11..............3........Gingrich +3........13.0
Politico/Tarrance (R) 1/17 - 1/18......600 LV.....4.1...............30.............37...........11..........10...............4........Romney +7........13.0
If we remove the outliers for declared votes we end up with:
Poll Date......................................Sample....MoE.............Gingrich......Romney.....Paul.....Santorum.....Perry.......Spread..............Undecided*
RCP Average 1/17 - 1/19...................--..........--................32.4..........30.4........13.4.........11.2 ........3.0*.......Gingrich +2.0........12.6
Clemson 1/18 - 1/19.......................429 LV.....4.7 ...............32 ............26 ..........11............9..............--........Gingrich +6............22.0
PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/19........................836 LV.....3.4................35 ............29...........15 ..........15............--..........Gingrich +6............6.0
Insider Advantage 1/18 - 1/18..........718 LV.....3.6................32.............29..........15...........11.............3*........Gingrich +3...........13.0
Ron Paul is polling solidly at 13.6%. Because the MSM/Polls bias and inaccuracies Ron has been getting approximately 5% more then these polls show putting him at about 18.6% as of now. Approximately 20% of voters are are not being polled which are independents, democrats. Ron has been pulling approximately 40% of these voters. 40% of 20% is 8% of the total vote. The other 12% is split between the other "cough" canidates giving Ron approximately an extra 4% of the vote. I see Ron Paul pulling approximately 22.6% of the vote in SC.
That leaves 77.4% of the vote to be split between the others. (percentagtes rounded so results may not be 100%)
Gingrich.......34%
Romney.......32%
Paul............23%
Santorum.....12%
Now the BIG change will come in first time voters most of which are not polled. 33% of Iowa and 38% of NH first time voters went to Ron Paul. Ron Paul,s message is spreading especially among this demographic. Based on this trend I guestimate that Ron will get approximately 42-44% of first time voters in SC. First time voters made up 12% of the electorate in Iowa and NH. That means Ron Paul will gain 42-44% of 12% of the electorate. Ron will get a 3% bump from this electorate while the others take a hit % wise.
Gingrich.......33%
Romney.......31%
Paul............26%
Santorum.....11%
Lets face it, voters from the Huntmans and Perry campaigns wanted someone other than the Grinch and Romney. I predict Santorum and Paul will pick up the lions share of these voters resulting in a 2% bump for both of them at Romney's and the Grinch's expense.
Gingrich.......31%
Romney.......29%
Paul............28%
Santorum.....13%
Now correcting for writer bias, ME
, Im gona subtract 4% from Paul and split it between the 3. All politics is local and even though the national news networks are not reporting all Ron Paul's endorsements, the local media is to a certain extent. I would subtract from the others for all the negatives things that happened to them: tax returns, open marriage, and bad performances, but the sheeple in SC with the MSM brainwashing will give it right back to them so they cancel each other out. Finally, Santorum won Iowa, that will boost him at Romney's expense by 1% and he will take 1% from both the Grinch and Romney from the religious war mongerers in SC.
Gingrich.......31%
Romney.......28%
Paul............24%
Santorum.....17%
Final analysis, its Iowa all over again. Romney and the Grinch slugging it out for first with Ron Paul a very strong 3rd. Stick a fork in Santorum, he is done.
EDIT: I forgot to take into consideration Cain. I will put him at 3% and since Cain was liked by Paul supporters that means Paul is gona take the hit.
Gingrich.......31%
Romney.......28%
Paul............21%
Santorum.....17%
Cain/Colbert...3%
Poll Date......................................Sample....MoE.............Gingrich......Romney.....Paul.....Santorum.....Perry.......Spread...........Undecided*
RCP Average 1/17 - 1/19...................--..........--................32.4..........30.4........13.4.......11.2.........3.0........Gingrich +2.0.......12.6
Clemson 1/18 - 1/19.......................429 LV.....4.7 ..............32 ............26 ..........11...........9..............--........Gingrich +6.........22.0
PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/19........................836 LV....3.4................35 ............29 ..........15 .........15.............--........Gingrich +6..........6.0
Rasmussen Reports 1/18 - 1/18........750 LV.....4.0...............33.............31...........15..........11...............2........Gingrich +2........10.0
Insider Advantage 1/18 - 1/18.........718 LV.....3.6................32.............29...........15..........11..............3........Gingrich +3........13.0
Politico/Tarrance (R) 1/17 - 1/18......600 LV.....4.1...............30.............37...........11..........10...............4........Romney +7........13.0
If we remove the outliers for declared votes we end up with:
Poll Date......................................Sample....MoE.............Gingrich......Romney.....Paul.....Santorum.....Perry.......Spread..............Undecided*
RCP Average 1/17 - 1/19...................--..........--................32.4..........30.4........13.4.........11.2 ........3.0*.......Gingrich +2.0........12.6
Clemson 1/18 - 1/19.......................429 LV.....4.7 ...............32 ............26 ..........11............9..............--........Gingrich +6............22.0
PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/19........................836 LV.....3.4................35 ............29...........15 ..........15............--..........Gingrich +6............6.0
Insider Advantage 1/18 - 1/18..........718 LV.....3.6................32.............29..........15...........11.............3*........Gingrich +3...........13.0
Ron Paul is polling solidly at 13.6%. Because the MSM/Polls bias and inaccuracies Ron has been getting approximately 5% more then these polls show putting him at about 18.6% as of now. Approximately 20% of voters are are not being polled which are independents, democrats. Ron has been pulling approximately 40% of these voters. 40% of 20% is 8% of the total vote. The other 12% is split between the other "cough" canidates giving Ron approximately an extra 4% of the vote. I see Ron Paul pulling approximately 22.6% of the vote in SC.
That leaves 77.4% of the vote to be split between the others. (percentagtes rounded so results may not be 100%)
Gingrich.......34%
Romney.......32%
Paul............23%
Santorum.....12%
Now the BIG change will come in first time voters most of which are not polled. 33% of Iowa and 38% of NH first time voters went to Ron Paul. Ron Paul,s message is spreading especially among this demographic. Based on this trend I guestimate that Ron will get approximately 42-44% of first time voters in SC. First time voters made up 12% of the electorate in Iowa and NH. That means Ron Paul will gain 42-44% of 12% of the electorate. Ron will get a 3% bump from this electorate while the others take a hit % wise.
Gingrich.......33%
Romney.......31%
Paul............26%
Santorum.....11%
Lets face it, voters from the Huntmans and Perry campaigns wanted someone other than the Grinch and Romney. I predict Santorum and Paul will pick up the lions share of these voters resulting in a 2% bump for both of them at Romney's and the Grinch's expense.
Gingrich.......31%
Romney.......29%
Paul............28%
Santorum.....13%
Now correcting for writer bias, ME
, Im gona subtract 4% from Paul and split it between the 3. All politics is local and even though the national news networks are not reporting all Ron Paul's endorsements, the local media is to a certain extent. I would subtract from the others for all the negatives things that happened to them: tax returns, open marriage, and bad performances, but the sheeple in SC with the MSM brainwashing will give it right back to them so they cancel each other out. Finally, Santorum won Iowa, that will boost him at Romney's expense by 1% and he will take 1% from both the Grinch and Romney from the religious war mongerers in SC.Gingrich.......31%
Romney.......28%
Paul............24%
Santorum.....17%
Final analysis, its Iowa all over again. Romney and the Grinch slugging it out for first with Ron Paul a very strong 3rd. Stick a fork in Santorum, he is done.
EDIT: I forgot to take into consideration Cain. I will put him at 3% and since Cain was liked by Paul supporters that means Paul is gona take the hit.
Gingrich.......31%
Romney.......28%
Paul............21%
Santorum.....17%
Cain/Colbert...3%
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