Peak Oil discussion on CSpan1 now!

[Highstreet]

Yes, Hubbert predicted peak oil in 1956 as occurring between 1965 and 1970. Didn't happen. This is just a small example of extrapolations that ignore future technology, just like the world-wide famines and mass starvation predicted by Malthus in the previous century.

I am not an optimist. The economic future looks extremely dim, but not because the world is running out of oil. It is because we (the U.S.) are simply consuming and spending more than we are producing and the global credit cards are almost maxed out.

It did happen in 1971, here in the States, just as he said.

It has already happened in the World. It doesn't mean we are running out, it means we have to live with a little bit less each year. This will just keep driving prices higher and eventually affect demand by creating recessions. We are already in a Recession, so that may slacken our demand for a while. We shall see.

Alternatives like Coal, wind and solar will become more and more competitive, but will never be able to fill the shoes for Transportation.

 

[billyjoeallen]

It did happen in 1971, here in the States, just as he said.

It has already happened in the World. It doesn't mean we are running out, it means we have to live with a little bit less each year. This will just keep driving prices higher and eventually affect demand by creating recessions. We are already in a Recession, so that may slacken our demand for a while. We shall see.

Alternatives like Coal, wind and solar will become more and more competitive, but will never be able to fill the shoes for Transportation.

That's largely artificial. We are prevented by law from tapping known reserves in ANWR and off the California coast and anyway he said between 1965 and 1970 NOT 1971.

1971 not coincidentally was the beginning of Nixon's gasoline price controls which removed any incentive to increase production.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

Yes, but it doesn't pop up on the page.

Is there a direct link I can put in Realplayer or WMP.

it should come up with a page where the transcript is on the left side and a bunch of real player segments are on the right. You might have to make your page full screen to see the right side or scroll over.

-n

 

[Highstreet]

That's largely artificial. We are prevented by law from tapping known reserves in ANWR and off the California coast and anyway he said between 1965 and 1970 NOT 1971.

1971 not coincidentally was the beginning of Nixon's gasoline price controls which removed any incentive to increase production.

I have been researching this since 2003. And it wasn't because of any price controls. There are no price controls today, nor have there been for some 30+ years.

Nor does ANWR or California or the Florida coastline have enough oil to help the situation.

Prudhoe Bay was 3 times the size of ANWR and it maxed out at 2 Million barrels per day, and has since peaked, and is back to less than half it's peak production. And it did not bring production above our peak production in 1971.

Please understand that I am not against producing ANWR, and in fact I think we will do it out of necessity here in the near future. But it nor any deep water sources will stave off the already apparent World Peak.

You know when they are Mining the Athabasca Tar Sands to turn into Oil that we are desperate for the liquid fuel. They operate that Canadian field at a NET Energy LOSS, meaning they pump more energy in Natural Gas to liquify the stuff than they receive from the result.

Oil is now as valuable as Gold, a true limited resource, and will have resultant price increases.

 

[Highstreet]

it should come up with a page where the transcript is on the left side and a bunch of real player segments are on the right. You might have to make your page full screen to see the right side or scroll over.

-n

For some reason all I see is 3 "images", not video links.

can you copy the links and post them. It seems weird that they are not showing up for me.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

hmmm... OK, it looks like they just have stills up right now. I guess the video hasn't been processed into the server yet - you might try tomorrow, but the text is up there now.

looks like it has not made it to youtube either

-n

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

it does really work - check out this earlier one by him on the same topic from last year - this one does come up as a video.

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/congress/?q=node/77531&id=7572478

I'm guessing it will be processed and up tomorrow.

-n

 

[billyjoeallen]

Oil is now as valuable as Gold, a true limited resource, and will have resultant price increases.

In what possible way can this statement be true? in terms of volume? in weight? You are being ridiculous.

 

[billyjoeallen]

also: have you noticed how the chicken little doomsday scenarios conflict with each other?

scenario one: we are running out of oil
scenario two: burning oil is causing global warming.

So if we use up all the oil, the earth will stop warming. What's the problem?

 

[Fox McCloud]

also: have you noticed how the chicken little doomsday scenarios conflict with each other?

scenario one: we are running out of oil
scenario two: burning oil is causing global warming.

So if we use up all the oil, the earth will stop warming. What's the problem?

This is just like me bringing up the "alternative energies" to a socialist friend of mine (who wants to manage the resources). I told him that if we continued using the oil at the current rate, it'd increase prices drastically, and FORCE the market to go with alternative energies.

His excuse was

I don't think thats justification to using it all up. And no matter what happens in the next 10 years, we should always assume there will be people to blame us for it in 100 years, so we should at least try to conserve.

.

*Shrug*

 

[Razmear]

I'm hoping that Solar powered Stirling Engines will start to take off.
This article is from 2004

http://www.sandia.gov/news/resources/releases/2004/renew-energy-batt/Stirling.html

eb

 

[billyjoeallen]

Nobody knows what technologies will replace or displace the current ones. That is why top-down central planning policies always fail. We don't have enough information. That is why we need unfettered market action without subsidies, tarrifs or regulation.