Peak Oil discussion on CSpan1 now!

[Sandra]

They are showing how devestating consequences.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

Yes, - VERY interesting presentation!

C-SPAN already has it online (it's about an hour)

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/congress/?q=node/77530&pid=27026

Congressman Bartlett also has the GAO report on crude oil as well as his notes and at least some of the charts online:

http://bartlett.house.gov/
More reports and charts here:
http://bartlett.house.gov/EnergyUpdates/

A few things he DID NOT get into that are important - just notes...

objections about wind generation due to aesthetics
sugar and cannabis best source for ethanol
(he did mention there is only a 2% gain in energy, due to having to input energy into the system to produce ethanol but it's causing prices of corn, soy and wheat to double).
corporate farming practices using up the soil / high energy cost to produce modern fertilizers.
Corporate monopoly on ethanol production due to regulations + taxes
ocean energy - AU and NZ get 25% of energy via tidal generation. (he said it's possible but difficult due to distributed nature of production - first congress critter I've seen ever mentioning that it exists!).
(thermal gradients of sea water mentioned as potential EN source)
Flawed assumption that energy must be produced and distributed from a central facility.
(ARPA-E mentioned as potential solution - space race type program.)
Conservation - refrigerators are available that run on 12V, but not common or readily available. Also expensive due to low production. Super insulation, thermal chimneys, etc.

Sandia Sunshine to Petrol Project:

http://www.sandia.gov/news/resources/releases/2007/sunshine.html

VERY WORTHWHILE to watch/read!

-n

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

Few notes / highlights of what was discussed:

each barrel of oil has EN equivalence of 12 men working for 1 year.

hubards peak - google

the world according to oil - chart (WOW!)

US has 2% of oil, uses 25%

8% of production
5% of population
import 2/3 of oil

98% of oil reserves are in the middle east - (it's about WMD/terrorism... RIGHT!)

will run out within 300 years

(btw: China is reconsidering their 1 child per couple law - as in getting rid of it. world population will double by 2050)

SAIC Hersh report '05 - ignored by administration

wind generation growing at 40% a year - still very minor part of EN

cost of corn, wheat and soy doubled in price because of ethanol - only 2% EN return

coal reserves are 100 - 250 years (less with increased use - 5-50 years realistic

alternatives:

geothermal
tar sands
oil shale

nuke:
light water - eats uranium - limited supply
breeder reactors - good and bad news
fusion - not there yet

ocean energy: (infinite renewability, like wind and geothermal)
hard to capture
tidal
thermal gradients

liquid fuels are the problem
wearing out soil - corporate farming practices
rain forests - trashing
sustainability
ARPA-E

post oil world:
conservation
find alternatives
local production
kind to environment
one more - have to watch / read it again to catch.

well worth the hour to watch!

-n

 

[jkm1864]

You know if there was no gay progressive income tax the middle class could afford solar energy which would drive the manufacturing price down making it more affordable to the poor. I wonder if the stupid fucks in congress every thought of that. I know I would do it if I had about 15,000 more of my own money coming into my house every year.

 

[Give me liberty]

I see great doom coming this summer -.-

 

[d991]

I see great doom coming this summer -.-

Maybe, but not from Peak Oil. I mean, we've peaked, but the effects probably will really be felt around 2012.

This summer I see a few things on the horizon:
1) Economic recession
2) Israeli war with Palestinians & Hezbollah in Lebanon
3) Anything could happen with Iran. I thought Israel would strike them this year but I think their hands are tied right now. Their PM, Olmert said recently that they don't think Iran is on the verge of a nuclear weapon so imminent action is not required, but that's always on the back-burner. In the meantime they'll try to pressure the U.S. to push for harsher sanctions.

 

[billyjoeallen]

People have been predicting peak oil

 

[billyjoeallen]

Peak oil has been predicted for over a century now. Unknown reserves are just thaty-unknown.

We will move out of the oil age not when we run out of oil, but when we find something better. We didn't move out of the stone age because we ran out of stones.

 

[Sandra]

They're hoping to stimulate our economy with war with anyone. My family is working on ways to cut back drastically on energy use by using outdoor cooking and gardening. I'm trying to get my hands on those larger hand crank washing machines. There's one that you wind up for a minute and it spin washes for 20 minutes. I see a lot of small crank appliances and tiny charging devices, I wonder how many appliances could go to this form of power?

 

[torchbearer]

Fusion, we are there.
The tech is there.
The helium-3 is the majority of the moons surface.
It just about getting it back here cheaply.
We have trace amounts of helium-3 on earth.

We also have the ability now to convert any carbon based waste into crude.

 

[billyjoeallen]

Fusion, we are there.
The tech is there.
The helium-3 is the majority of the moons surface.
It just about getting it back here cheaply.
We have trace amounts of helium-3 on earth.

We also have the ability now to convert any carbon based waste into crude.

OK, this is one of the rare instances where I can claim authority. I have a degree in nuclear technology. Fusion has not reached a break-even point yet, that means that it takes more energy to produce fusion than is gained by it. At current rates of efficiency gain, Tokamac reactors will not break even for approximately 35 years at the earliest (factoring in energy harvesting efficiencies) and possibly never. Other fusion technologies look even less promising. Sorry. Don't shoot the messenger.

 

[torchbearer]

OK, this is one of the rare instances where I can claim authority. I have a degree in nuclear technology. Fusion has not reached a break-even point yet, that means that it takes more energy to produce fusion than is gained by it. At current rates of efficiency gain, Tokamac reactors will not break even for approximately 35 years at the earliest (factoring in energy harvesting efficiencies) and possibly never. Other fusion technologies look even less promising. Sorry. Don't shoot the messenger.

is the energy efficiency ratio factoring in the process of making/producing helium-3?
that is a cost/ratio that could change easily with a few key breakthroughs which are basically already here... just not enough incentive yet to do it.

 

[billyjoeallen]

is the energy efficiency ratio factoring in the process of making/producing helium-3?
that is a cost/ratio that could change easily with a few key breakthroughs which are basically already here... just not enough incentive yet to do it.

You are referring to the article from Popular Science about a year ago, I imagine. The short answer is yes, the efficiency problem still exists even if we had unlimited He3 because the bottleneck is containment-the electromagnetic field neccesary to contain the plasma-not the Helium 3 that dramatically increases the yield. He3 would make more energy and require more containment.

But to bring the discussion back to peak oil, any energy technology should be viable without subsidies, because energy production is all about efficiency and the most efficient way to allocate any scarce resoure is through the markets. Subsidies undermine markets by disguising true prices, prices neccessary for proper market function.

 

[humanic]

WOW-- I have to admit, I'm even more surprised to see Peak Oil being discussed on RPF than I am to see it on C-Span!

I'm anxious to watch this. tangent4ronpaul, thanks for the notes.

If you are unfamiliar with this topic, I recommend:

These sites:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
http://www.fromthewilderness.com

These videos:
The CIA Connection
Oil Smoke and Mirrors
Crude Impact
How Cuba Survived Peak Oil
The End of Suburbia
Life at the End of Empire

This book: Crossing The Rubicon [right click link and "Save As"]

 

[billyjoeallen]

Peak oil is a canard. Dr. Paul himself said that oil supply relative to gold supply is flat, meaning the price of oil in real money is constant. Oil discovery and recovery technology is improving all the time, compensating for depletion.

In a free market oil is the cheapest energy source for a simple reason: it is the most plentiful.
If that ever changes, prices will change with it if government stays out of the market.

 

[UziSprayTF]

Peak oil is a major myth guys. Whenever you see someone graph supply and demand as someone would 2 separate stocks you know you are being lied to. Oil is not about to "peak"

Take a look at the following two images. I created the second one to show someone how insane the idea of running out of oil is.

http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/7215/usenflow02quadsjk5.gif
http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/8840/worldoilusageavisualizahy8.jpg

The first image shows how energy is used in the States, the second image shows the volume of oil consumed in the WORLD per year. I know know 29 billion barrels of oil a year SOUNDS like a lot of energy, but it is not. it is a tiny dot on the world. The main barrier to oil supply is governments and technology. Alaska has a TON of oil that the US government does not want touched, canada has a TON of mackenzie oil that the native tribes will not allow to be extracted because they don't want their tribe's sons to have money from the employment and pipeline and "lose their culture." Alberta has oil tar-sands that require a fairly large amount of energy to extract. Colorado has the worlds largest oil reserve, only 1 problem, its through miles of rock. Iraq has enough oil to feed us all for the next 20 years or more all on its own, but political and local strife prevent economical construction and maintenance of their wells.

As supply moves from civilized countries to non-civilized countries extraction rates will be more volatile and the price will go up, but it will not all of a sudden peak to 1000 dollars a barrel or anything crazy like that. There is just too much of a financial incentive.

Also, the maximum amount gas at the pump can be (in inflation adjusted dollars) is 18 dollars a gallon. At that point it would be more economical to buy a solar panel from you local hardware store and buy a Tesla roadster car ($90 000) and drive it around. But to get to this point would require a massive contraction of supply, which is not likely. Short term energy trends due to increased globalization will push the cost of every type of energy higher, but globalization is releasing more scientists out into the world. Future generations will have more energy than they know what to do with.

 

[Bossobass]

Here is the problem. From a 2001 article:

Cindy Bond, 43, and her husband, Stan, 55, have owned SUVs since the early '90s. Last month they traded in their '98 Ford Expedition for the 2001 model; it gets 14 miles per gallon in city driving. Bond is furious that "the government has allowed us to become dependent on other nations" for oil, and calls gas guzzling a myth. Stephanie Dexter of Wilmington, Dela., opted last month for a GMC Yukon XL (12 mpg, city). She believes Americans have a right "to do what we want and buy what we want. Isn't that why we're fighting?"

Makes me puke to hear that sort of drivel. They should draft that woman for 3 tours in Iraq.

Some facts:

Due to the increasing number of gas-guzzling vehicles, America is more dependent on foreign oil now than we were at the height of the 1973 energy crisis.

Raising fuel economy standards for new cars, sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and other light trucks to an average of 40 miles per gallon over the next decade would save 3 million barrels of oil per day.

If new cars and light trucks averaged 40 miles per gallon, we would save 1,507 gallons of gasoline per second.

We don't have to raise standards. My wife's turbo diesel (8 years old) averages right at 52 mpg. Mine (3 years old and bigger and faster) averages 48.6 mpg.

Our vehicles are not listed in any 'best mileage cars in America' lists because 'diesel vehicles are not included in the compilation'.

VW told me they were 'test marketing' their 3 cylinder version turbo diesel with EPA estimated 83 mpg 'to see if Americans would be interested in such a vehicle'. BS. I tried to buy two a couple of years ago. I offered to waive the warranty and import them. No can do was the reply.

It's no mystery to me why the same people who own controlling interest in GM also own controlling interest in Exxon.

But then again, Americans are the only people in the world stupid enough to want to buy a 15 mpg SUV. (Read first quoted paragraph. I rest my case.)

In the 70s the CFR pukes were telling Congressmen and Senators that "we will be pumping the last barrel of oil any day now".

Hey, but let's shred those pesky electric cars because nobody wants to buy one.

Bosso

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

We also have the ability now to convert any carbon based waste into crude.

I don't know about that - gotta ref?

-n

 

[Sandra]

All resources are finite. They WILL end. I think it's just a matter of retraining ourselves to get off our cushy butts and work with our hands again. You'd be surprised how little fuel you use when you're just running a tiller.

 

[UziSprayTF]

I don't know about that - gotta ref?

-n

You need energy in the carbon waste to convert it. For example:

You drive your car

Oil => Gas => Motion => Heat => Exhaust (CO2) => Plants => Sun => BioFuel

You can't just get energy for free