Official December 15-16 Prediction Thread

[hummtide]

12-15 money raised: $621,055


For 12-16...


Hour 1 485,326
Hour 2 397,251
Hour 3 215,006
Hour 4 197,233
Hour 5 109,678
Hour 6 145,699
Hour 7 187,205
Hour 8 274,300
Hour 9 334,890
Hour 10 488,652
Hour 11 574,200
Hour 12 691,254 4,100,694
Hour 13 704,203 4,804,897
Hour 14 611,411 5,509,100
Hour 15 874,915 6,384,015
Hour 16 905,331 7,289,346
Hour 17 821,606 8,110,952
Hour 18 919,744 9,030,696
Hour 19 1,055,218 10,085,914
Hour 20 885,367 10,971,281
Hour 21 1,854,001 12,825,282
Hour 22 1,563,288 14,388,570
Hour 23 3,474,909 17,863,479
Hour 24 2,288,309 20,151,788

 

[shepburn]

what the heck is all of this?

 

[Paul4Prez]

Ron Paul mentioned the Boston Tea Party money bomb in his Face the Nation interview today! He said it was coming up on the 16th, but he didn't mention which month....

He said it wouldn't hurt the campaign any to have another four million dollar day.

I'm thinking we will reach that before he wakes up on the 16th...

My early prediction:

$10,623,311

 

[FreeTraveler]

Ron Paul mentioned the Boston Tea Party money bomb in his Face the Nation interview today! He said it was coming up on the 16th, but he didn't mention which month....

He said it wouldn't hurt the campaign any to have another four million dollar day.

I'm thinking we will reach that before he wakes up on the 16th...

My early prediction:

$10,623,311

Youtube? The stupid local station where I am substituted local programming.

 

[goRPaul]

$20 million? I'm optimistic about the Tea Party, but not that much. I think there's still a lot of responsibility on us to promote it and ensure that we have an amazing day. However, I believe that this day will make the 5th look "cute."

I'll go with $8.5 million.

 

[hawkeyenick]

Greater than 7 million is all we need, no one can deny us then

 

[NewEnd]

$11.6 million

 

[mfoley1]

more than the 5th of November =)

 

[Naraku]

Here's how my arithemtic goes:

There were 1,000 people a day signing up for November fifth for 18 days and there were over twice as many who actually donated. The average donation was about $118.

If the Tea Party follows the same trend I believe that means there will be about 34,000 people signed up and 68,000 actual donors. These donors will then give $118. That ends up with about $8 million.

However, I also think the process may change and speed up. For one I think the pace of signups is going to increase, let's say, to 1500 people per day. Then these people will save up lots of money and donate closer to an average of $200.

That means there will be about 51,000 people signed up and 102,000 actual donors. That amounts to about $20 million.

I'd put $8 million is a minimum donation, with $20 million as a possible maximum.

 

[Austin]

Here's how my arithemtic goes:

There were 1,000 people a day signing up for November fifth for 18 days and there were over twice as many who actually donated. The average donation was about $118.

If the Tea Party follows the same trend I believe that means there will be about 34,000 people signed up and 68,000 actual donors. These donors will then give $118. That ends up with about $8 million.

However, I also think the process may change and speed up. For one I think the pace of signups is going to increase, let's say, to 1500 people per day. Then these people will save up lots of money and donate closer to an average of $200.

That means there will be about 51,000 people signed up and 102,000 actual donors. That amounts to about $20 million.

I'd put $8 million is a minimum donation, with $20 million as a possible maximum.

This is a very sound prediction. I do not think we will reach 20 million, but 10 million is definitely doable. That would be the ideal amount, as Rudy Giuliani only raised 10 million for Q3. Imagine defeating the most raised in the previous quarter by any GOP candidate in 24 hours?

It would create an immeasurable amount of media.

 

[european]

deffo 10+ mio, but not much more then that

 

[FreeTraveler]

10 Million Without a Mainstream "Hook"

If we grow at the rate we have been, we'll do $10 Million solid. If we somehow get the "hook" that draws in the mainstream, all of the estimates I've seen so far are "a spit in the ocean". Remember, we have over 300 million americans, 70% of whom are against the war, and the vast majority of whom are fed up with the policies of the Federal Government; they're just too lazy and too well-fed to do anything about it, and too convinced there's nothing they can do.

If we could get Tea Party '07 to go viral "out there" like it has on the Internet, I won't even mention the numbers that pop into my head. That's why the web site is so critical. If it becomes the next "pet rock" or "brittany" thing, look out!

Now... how do we sell Liberty as well as they sell Brittany Spears?

 

[cien750hp]

heres an idea, the revolutions all about love, right.
ever see the free hugs campaign? something like that.
people standing in malls. busy places on streets.
signs that say "FREE HUGS FROM THE RON PAUL R3VOLUTION"
maybe you could mention the tea party, or have a sign

its here if you havnt seen it:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=vr3x_RRJdd4

edit: sorry i dont mean to hijack this thread, it was just a reply to FreeTraveler

 

[cien750hp]

edit

 

[ratsbew]

My official prediction is $12.5 million. One thing that might help out is that people are already in the money spending mode since this is in prime Christmas shopping time (or maybe they are broke).

 

[MozoVote]

Teaparty has the potential to reach many thousands of tax-hating Americans, and isn't tainted as "weird" like the "V" day was.

We are already at 6,000 pledgers in just a few days. It is not insane to think we could get 100,000 pledgers by the 16th of December if in a "compound interest" sort of way it just keeps snowballing.

 

[Naraku]

If we somehow get the "hook" that draws in the mainstream, all of the estimates I've seen so far are "a spit in the ocean".

Here's a "hook" for you:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=35643

 

[Ethek]

Well, if the trend of teaparty07 pledger's from the last 3 days holds out for another 34 days until the 16th and 2.5x the number of pledger's donate (as happened on the 5th) an average of $102 dollars, that would lead to an estimate between $15.5 and $16 million on that day.

 

[MozoVote]

I just did a little estimating in Excel, using vey *modest* assumptions of exponential growth. This really could be huge. We're getting around 2000 people a day signing up right now.

There were around 18,000 in the "V" fund raiser. I think most of them will be back. $100 is not that much money, and it's a month later.

We probably picked up a few thousand more from the publicity of "V". We'll pick up several thousand more people, that like the anti tax message.

And then there are the lurkers that don't even sign up.

 

[sroll2237]

Not quite eight million. Why? not to get everyone fired up again, but because the site is only (as of now) focused on the people who understand and know about the inflation tax. If that's changed and the money bomb is also about protesting loss of liberties and the war, than I think we can hit 10 million because it will be easier to promote and get people that are on the fence to give.