Hate to agree with you, but im leaning toward that also.
NH Results Thread
- Thread starter wstrucke
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Hate to agree with you, but im leaning toward that also.
floridasun1983
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I think Romney will win but he will falter from the lofty 40% he had days ago (and that may be the narrative we need to gain momentum), but anything less than a 20%+ second place finish by Dr. Paul seriously jeopardizes the campaign.
If Paul gets third, unfortunately he'll be phased out by the media. They'll say that he has a strong core of supporters but not enough to win the nomination or even contend for it. I hope to God the polls are wrong and Paul is within 5 points of Romney but I guess the undecided usually are for the frontrunner so Romney will likely end up with 40% with Paul barely breaking 20%.
Romney will then be given an opportunity to call for the party to unite behind him against Obama now and I think it likely will save for Gingrich and Santorum. They'll call Paul a distraction and someone who's only in it for himself.
Romney will then be given an opportunity to call for the party to unite behind him against Obama now and I think it likely will save for Gingrich and Santorum. They'll call Paul a distraction and someone who's only in it for himself.
C
Chester Copperpot
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Um. no
Travlyr
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No. The revolution for liberty is gaining momentum. There is no stopping it ... it is worldwide.
Agreed. They aren't going to let Paul get second to Romney, and if they do, they'll make sure Romney is first by a mile. They have to keep up the narrative that Romney is far and away the front runner and that the voters should just give up and support him in landslide fashion (so that Paul won't gain the necessary delegates). The whole media will be pushing this soon enough. They don't want people to think that Paul has a chance.
It'll either be something like: Romney 31%, Huntsman 21%, Paul 20% or Romney 41%, Paul 19% Huntsman 17%.
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ohgodno
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A third place finish will reinforce the media narrative (Ron Paul can't win, or even be runner up) - it seems like we'll be seeing a variety of #2 finishers in the early states (with the mainstream hoping none of the #2 finishers are Dr. Paul).
The #2 finishers will be Romney's choices for VP - depending on what demographic the party would most want to compete with Obama for. With that I'm predicting a Hunt #2 finish here in NH and a Perry or Grinch #2 in SC.
So they'd choose Santorum if they want to make a joke of the GOP (if they think they need the hardcore Neocons), Huntsman if they want "moderates", Perry/Grinch if they want faux Tea Partiers. All running with the establishment choice: Romney.
The #2 finishers will be Romney's choices for VP - depending on what demographic the party would most want to compete with Obama for. With that I'm predicting a Hunt #2 finish here in NH and a Perry or Grinch #2 in SC.
So they'd choose Santorum if they want to make a joke of the GOP (if they think they need the hardcore Neocons), Huntsman if they want "moderates", Perry/Grinch if they want faux Tea Partiers. All running with the establishment choice: Romney.
fisharmor
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Can we at least see some post 8pm numbers before everyone starts going negative again?
The campaign isn't going to be over no matter what happens.
Everyone knows that even if he gets first, he's still going to suck in Florida and South Carolina.
This is very much an attrition process here. The world got to see this process dragged out to its bitter end on the Democrat side four years ago, and there's no reason to believe that this isn't going to happen this time.
Paul has money, he has supporters, and his base is growing every single day.
Mittens has money. And everyone hates him.
For Pete's sake, chin up! If things go horribly wrong today, it is still not over.
The campaign isn't going to be over no matter what happens.
Everyone knows that even if he gets first, he's still going to suck in Florida and South Carolina.
This is very much an attrition process here. The world got to see this process dragged out to its bitter end on the Democrat side four years ago, and there's no reason to believe that this isn't going to happen this time.
Paul has money, he has supporters, and his base is growing every single day.
Mittens has money. And everyone hates him.
For Pete's sake, chin up! If things go horribly wrong today, it is still not over.
Paul better be ready to given a mind-blowing speech tonight. His staff should have several speeches ready depending on the results. If he does really well and comes close to winning, Paul should talk about him being the only guy to challenge Romney and that he's tied with Obama in the polls (electability). If its a far second, Paul should ask conservatives to unite behind him as he brings together independents and Republicans because of his economic policy. If its third or worse, Paul better be ready to drop some nuclear bombs about the media and how they are tied in with the corporatism, federal reserve, and military-industrial complex and then point to the other candidates as being puppets for corporate interests. Even if it doesn't help him, it sure will be his version of revenge as it make the GOP establishment look like whores.
#3 isn't as bad as we make it out to be...we'd still be the only one to finish along with Romney in the top 3 twice for the first two caucus/primary. The others are just flailing for attention and they will fail. The media has no one left after this to prop up to knock down Paul. The others don't have long term potential like Paul and Romney or the money to do it.
helmuth_hubener
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No way. Also, someone asked earlier why no campaign ever focused on Dixville Notch. Here is a story that simultaneously gives lie to both these claims: http://news.google.com/newspapers?n...YNKAAAAIBAJ&sjid=5pMMAAAAIBAJ&pg=6370,3797381
In 1992, Andre Marrou campaigned actively in Dixville Notch, and he won it, but he did not go on to win the day, nor the Presidency.
ChristianAnarchist
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While I agree that what the media spins will help or hurt us, in the end Dr. Paul is shooting for delegates. As most of the other candidates start dropping, whatever delegates they have garnered will be "unbound" and up for grabs. This is really only a race between Romney and Paul. None of the other candidates will make it to the end so we need to be sly as a fox and get those delegates...
So if Huntsman gets delegates, our guys need to be begging to be "Huntsman delegates". That way when he drops out, these unbound delegates can support the good doctor...
So if Huntsman gets delegates, our guys need to be begging to be "Huntsman delegates". That way when he drops out, these unbound delegates can support the good doctor...
floridasun1983
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Seriously, the media is irrelevant? How do you explain the media created Santorum surge in Iowa? The media is many things, but irrlevent is certainly not one of them.
BuddyRey
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Why is everybody talking about a 3rd place finish? We're running 2nd right now aren't we?
Sure, there's something to be said for not getting our hopes up too high, but we also shouldn't start a pity party lest we know there'll be just cause for one.
Sure, there's something to be said for not getting our hopes up too high, but we also shouldn't start a pity party lest we know there'll be just cause for one.
PastaRocket848
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no, we're not. we're in the margin of error for 2nd, with huntsman tracking up and paul tracking down. it's better to expect 3rd and get 2nd than to expect 2nd and get 3rd.
liberty2012
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