NH 2016 Primary: Christie 21, Paul 16, Bush 8, Rubio 6

[dskalkowski]

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2013_summer_2016primary080613.pdf

I have reason to believe that this poll is extremely positive information for us. We're well within range in New Hampshire for 2016, and +1 from the last poll conducted in NH that had Paul at 15. Another positive look: Rubio is trailing. This was not a state we could have Rubio propping a win in, and it doesn't appear he will come even close. Although the polls can shift anytime, this is exactly where we want to be.

 

[ObiRandKenobi]

that makes me sick.

 

[AuH20]

How is Christie leading the Free State Project?

 

[RP Supporter]

While I would prefer if he's leading, this is at least possible. If Rand wins Iowa(And I cannot imagine a situation where Christie wins Iowa) He should hopefully get enough of a boost to push him ahead of Christie.

People also have an expectation for Christie to win in New Hampshire. He's sort of viewed as the default favorite. A loss or close win there to Rand will only hurt Christie. He needs to win big there, like Romney big. South Carolina will follow New Hampshire, and that should be good ground for Rand as well. The way I see it, Rand has a good chance in all three of the first states, while Christie can only be considered favored in one of them.

 

[dskalkowski]

Favorability numbers went up. Christie does well amongst moderates and independents, but is weak amongst conservative voters. We're actually doing fairly well with independents, just four points short of Christie in favorability numbers.

 

[dskalkowski]

While I would prefer if he's leading, this is at least possible. If Rand wins Iowa(And I cannot imagine a situation where Christie wins Iowa) He should hopefully get enough of a boost to push him ahead of Christie.

People also have an expectation for Christie to win in New Hampshire. He's sort of viewed as the default favorite. A loss or close win there to Rand will only hurt Christie. He needs to win big there, like Romney big. South Carolina will follow New Hampshire, and that should be good ground for Rand as well. The way I see it, Rand has a good chance in all three of the first states, while Christie can only be considered favored in one of them.

I suspect a win in Iowa, would close the numbers dramatically.

 

[fearthereaperx]

Christie will take NH, unless someone like Huntsman--who had a decent outing in NH-- joins and helps splinter away some of the independent/moderate vote from Christie IMO

 

[fr33]

So depressing...

 

[ObiRandKenobi]

rand needs a lot of momentum going into those super tuesday dates where big $$$ tends to crush.

 

[Cleaner44]

How is Christie leading the Free State Project?

Because the progressives from Boston live there.

 

[AuH20]

Because the progressives from Boston live there.

Is it an open primary?

 

[PaleoPaul]

Is it an open primary?

It is, but remember, this isn't like 2012. The Democrats are going to have a primary as well, so it's going to be harder to find civil liberties Democrats and convince them to skip their own party's primary for ours.

 

[VoluntaryAmerican]

Paul has the highest electability and higher favorability ratings though.

This poll is only 500 people.

 

[VoluntaryAmerican]

Christie will take NH, unless someone like Huntsman--who had a decent outing in NH-- joins and helps splinter away some of the independent/moderate vote from Christie IMO

Christie might not run.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ss..._being_nj_governor_for_that.html#incart_river

The man craves power... and he might not give up the governor seat for anything less than a sure thing.

 

[AlexAmore]

Guys, it's 2 1/2 years out. It's all about the trajectory.

Rand's favorability went from 19% in Feb, 35% Apr, 37% July.

Christie went from 39% Feb, 30% Apr, 25% July.

Rand Paul and Jindal-Who-Gives-a-Fuck had the highest net increases in favorability. This means many things, but a win in Iowa and we went from 2nd choice to first choice in NH for many voters. Paul Ryan is competition, but even his favorability dropped since April so hopefully that trend continues. We probably got some of his votes.

 

[fearthereaperx]

Christie might not run.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ss..._being_nj_governor_for_that.html#incart_river

The man craves power... and he might not give up the governor seat for anything less than a sure thing.

Well, he did get a blessing from Kissinger.

 

[thequietkid10]

Christie might not run.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ss..._being_nj_governor_for_that.html#incart_river

The man craves power... and he might not give up the governor seat for anything less than a sure thing.

One does not warn of an "increasing strain of libertarism" and invokes 9/11 if they aren't running for President.

 

[CaptLouAlbano]

Not a shock here. The last time NH didn't go for a moderate was in 96 when Buchanan won the primary, but even then Dole lost by only 1% of the vote.

 

[Brett85]

I was thinking before that Rand and Rubio would be the last two candidates left in the race in the 2016 GOP primary. Now it looks like it might end up being Rand and Christie as the last two Republicans standing.

 

[ObiRandKenobi]

worst case scenario is if rand comes in 2nd or 3rd and is chosen for VEEP and i have to listen to rand talk up christie or rubio like they're the greatest thing evah.