New Rasmussen National Poll - The Santorum Collapse

[jasonxe]

I told Doug this that the Not-Romney people who support Santo are going to panic. We need to make a big splash to show we're a contender and they won't go back to Newt. I also suggested how to do this to Doug so hopefully the campaign follows through.

 

[bluesc]

Polling 40% just before Super Tuesday is sitting pretty.

Polling at 40% at any time is "sitting pretty". Who has achieved it so far? Almost every candidate.

Given the number of states that will be voting long after Super Tuesday, a national poll at this point is just about as indicative of the outcome of the overall race as the national polls in December showing Newt at 40%.

 

[Liberty74]

Yes, I predicted it would take about 3 weeks until some of Santorum's support start to erode after his Satan comment and he starts to get vetted a little more i.e. FAKE.

It's starting to happen...

As of now, Romney will have this wrapped up by the end of March easily. Paul is going no where unfortunately. He has been stuck at 8-12% for the last 8 months in most national polls. He has 50-60% unfavorables from the Republican base. Unless Paul turns those numbers around quickly, it's pretty much over. You cannot win the Republican nomination with such high unfavorables. BTW, those unfavorables are due to Rush, Levin, Beck, Hannity and the rest of those twats who lied and smeared Ron Paul starting back in December.

 

[Shane Harris]

Polling at 40% at any time is "sitting pretty". Who has achieved it so far? Almost every candidate.

Given the number of states that will be voting long after Super Tuesday, a national poll at this point is just about as indicative of the outcome of the overall race as the national polls in December showing Newt at 40%.

everyone but us. we were the only campaign that emerged at the top of state polls before and without ever emerging near or at the top of national polls. the reason: our rise in Iowa was real and not a nationally fabricated surge from the MSM. we will never get that

 

[gerryb]

Y

As of now, Romney will have this wrapped up by the end of March easily. Paul is going no where unfortunately. He has been stuck at 8-12% for the last 8 months in most national polls. He has 50-60% unfavorables from the Republican base.

The last I saw from Rasmussen, RP had the best favorables of anyone.

And this negative crap has got to go. Sure, we aren't the largest preference. It doesn't matter, and the sooner everyone realizes it, the better off we will be. Even if we were 2% in the preference, if 100% of those 2% were involved in the party becoming committee members, chairs, and delegates, we would win, and then have the platform to disseminate our info that brought the preference of everyone else around to our views.

At 15% nationally, we just need about double the participation rate of the other candidates supporters, and we win. Participation ='s getting involved in the party, making calls, canvassing/lit dropping, etc.

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

And this negative crap has got to go. Sure, we aren't the largest preference. It doesn't matter, and the sooner everyone realizes it, the better off we will be. Even if we were 2% in the preference, if 100% of those 2% were involved in the party becoming committee members, chairs, and delegates, we would win, and then have the platform to disseminate our info that brought the preference of everyone else around to our views.

At 15% nationally, we just need about double the participation rate of the other candidates supporters, and we win. Participation ='s getting involved in the party, making calls, canvassing/lit dropping, etc.

This was pushed here in 2008. "Ron Paul hasn't won any states, is last in the delegate totals and got 5.8% of the vote nationally, but we CAN WIN!" You're not going to win the nomination with a string of third or fourth-place finishes.

If this was reversed, and Paul was polling and winning like Romney's actual numbers now, and a neocon was performing as Paul is now, and that neocon won the nomination through this strategy: the cries of "establishment stole it from Ron Paul!" would be deafening here.

 

[matt0611]

This was pushed here in 2008. "Ron Paul hasn't won any states, is last in the delegate totals and got 5.8% of the vote nationally, but we CAN WIN!" You're not going to win the nomination with a string of third or fourth-place finishes.

If this was reversed, and Paul was polling and winning like Romney's actual numbers now, and a neocon was performing as Paul is now, and that neocon won the nomination through this strategy: the cries of "establishment stole it from Ron Paul!" would be deafening here.

They wouldn't be "stealing" anything, and neither are we.This is how the delegate process works, we elect who gets to be delegates so that they vote how we want when it comes time to elect the nominee. Not sure what your point is.

 

[Feeding the Abscess]

I wish we could catch just one of these anti-Romney waves of support.

He did. End of December, and then the media did wall to wall newsletters crap. Also got a front page NYT thing accusing him of being a defender of Iran, terrorists, and other nonsense.

 

[gerryb]

If this was reversed, and Paul was polling and winning like Romney's actual numbers now, and a neocon was performing as Paul is now, and that neocon won the nomination through this strategy: the cries of "establishment stole it from Ron Paul!" would be deafening here.

The problem is, with our current participation rates, even if RP was polling at 40% like Romney -- the end result would be the same. Ron Paul would not be the nominee, and you could cry however much you would want to, but they would have "stolen it" via the rules.

 

[gerryb]

Question:

If RP is the nominee, and we don't control the party apparatus, what is your response going to be when each local GOP uses their massive fundraising and instead of utilizing it to support the nominee(as they usually do), they instead redirected it to congressional and local races for neocons?

If we don't control the party apparatus, winning the nomination is pointless. We have the #'s to control the apparatus, just not the desire/participation.

"boo hoo, they don't agree with me, so I'm not going to participate to kick them out" is what the response here boils down too.

 

[JohnM]

Paul is going no where unfortunately.

I think that what you mean is "So far, Dr. Paul has not gone anywhere."

I am a realist, but I find your choice of tense to be too negative. I am not predicting that there will be a great surge in the next few weeks, but the future is always unpredictable, and a week is a long time in politics. We don't need negativity any more than we need unrealistic optimists.

Sometimes strange things happen. And sometimes, they are remarkably good.

 

[Danan]

Question:

If RP is the nominee, and we don't control the party apparatus, what is your response going to be when each local GOP uses their massive fundraising and instead of utilizing it to support the nominee(as they usually do), they instead redirected it to congressional and local races for neocons?

If we don't control the party apparatus, winning the nomination is pointless. We have the #'s to control the apparatus, just not the desire/participation.

"boo hoo, they don't agree with me, so I'm not going to participate to kick them out" is what the response here boils down too.

While the funds would be great, they wouldn't be needed. The biggest advantage would be to have no opponent from the conservative side. Ron could go full attack mode against Obama on personal liberties and wars. He would end up with a big block of the independence and a significant amount of democrats. And most of the GOP voters would still vote for him, since he won their election and is a (almost) lifelong republican.

If Ron wins the primary I'd say the general election will be the easier task (while still pretty hard because now the whole media would go rampage on Ron).

 

[Massachusetts]

I find it fascinating how obsessed America has become with polls. Elections can be won or lost based on a few polls released right before people go out to vote. Some people honestly just look at whoever is winning and vote for them because they are winning, which I will never understand.

I'm curious where these polls will be heading into Super Tuesday. I predict Santorum, Paul and Gingrich will all be around the same percentage, while Romney will remain right about where he is at 40%.

 

[gerryb]

I find it fascinating how obsessed America has become with polls. Elections can be won or lost based on a few polls released right before people go out to vote. Some people honestly just look at whoever is winning and vote for them because they are winning, which I will never understand.

Which is exactly why preference polls/primaries, in the end, do not matter... And out maneuvering via conventions and delegate selection processes does.

There is going to be no great upset if the "popular" person, gets replaced by an even more "popular" person (Like RP becoming nominee in August after the convention when our delegates make him the nominee(if we do the work now) and the GOP party(now us) rallies behind him issue press releases and e-mails to the GOP base, from our chairman and committee positions)

 

[kathy88]

This was pushed here in 2008. "Ron Paul hasn't won any states, is last in the delegate totals and got 5.8% of the vote nationally, but we CAN WIN!" You're not going to win the nomination with a string of third or fourth-place finishes.

If this was reversed, and Paul was polling and winning like Romney's actual numbers now, and a neocon was performing as Paul is now, and that neocon won the nomination through this strategy: the cries of "establishment stole it from Ron Paul!" would be deafening here.

Well, fortunately, in 2012 Ron has placed a couple 2nds, appears to be doing well in delegate acquisition, is getting much higher than 5.8% everywhere, and we CAN win.

 

[BUSHLIED]

I wish we could catch just one of these anti-Romney waves of support.

In as much as there is an anti-Romney sentiment, there is an even stronger anti-Paul sentiment among the GOP. Ron is hated by the establishment much more than the conservatives hate Romney etc....even the social conservatives hate Paul...

 

[InTradePro]

In as much as there is an anti-Romney sentiment, there is an even stronger anti-Paul sentiment among the GOP. Ron is hated by the establishment much more than the conservatives hate Romney etc....even the social conservatives hate Paul...

Nope, the majority simply follow what the mainstream media tell them. Ron's favorables in recent polling(i.e Michigan) since the last CNN debate are good.

 

[PolicyReader]

Romney isn't anywhere close to wrapping anything up.

With Newt's PAC having $10-$100M in the bank for a serious run in the south, more midwest states for Santorum to compete in and Paul's strength in the west, Romney only has his small, delegate rich NE stronghold.

This thing will be much more wide open after Super Tuesday.

^This

If Romney ever wraps something up it is nigh to certain it won't be until the very end of the race, the NE could give him a commanding lead if no other coalition forms before then and he preforms as well as projected there (but he's been underperforming his projections for virtually every state from start to finish this whole electoral season) but even if all that fits into place for Romney and he actually preforms as projected he'll still not have the secured delegates necessary to make this a wrap until the very end of voting states this 2012.

 

[JJ2]

This is why I said we needed Romney to win MI! There is now a huge void and Paul can fill that void if he can somehow beat out Romney and win WA! (I doubt Santorum will win WA now that his support is collapsing and Newt is obviously going to be 4th.)

 

[BUSHLIED]

Nope, the majority simply follow what the mainstream media tell them. Ron's favorables in recent polling(i.e Michigan) since the last CNN debate are good.

If you poll only GOP primary voters, I doubt Ron has positive favorability ratings. Furthermore, Ron has only been endorsed by roughly 3 sitting Congressman and sitting 1 Senator, his Son.

In order to win you need to have the base of the Republican Party. Ron only gets about 8-9% (of 100%) of the GOP base. His remaining support is from Independents and Democrats.

Look at Florida, that is a great example of how Ron is doing among the GOP base: older, white, generally afflulent, and conservative.

While I think Ron should fight in each state he can, the nomination is simply not in the cards for Paul. The campaign and Ron failed to tailor their message to reach the base and if that wasn't their goal to expand their base, then well they weren't running to win then.
They may have been thinking that they were going to bring new people into the fold, which they certainly did. They generally brought younger voters and independents. Younger voters don't vote and the independents can only give Ron an edge in open primaries etc...

The campaign made the decision to bank everyone on acquiring delegates in the caucus states, which was their best shot. But they failed to even win ONE at this point. Arguably Maine was stolen (perhaps even Iowa) but still performances in other caucuses were not that strong. Ron is about to get clocked on 'Super Tuesday' with the exception of Washington. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he gets over 40% in VA. If Ron can't win VA against Romney, then there goes the campaign's claim that they want to go against Romney as the true conservative etc...for me, when Ron went back to Texas after NH, that was it...

The general tone of the forums post New Hampshire devolved into theories of vote fraud and picking up delegates hoping for a brokered convention. There was a brief period where people were upset and yelling about Ron's debating performances, lack of townhalls, not attacking candidates, and inability to reach the base on foreign policy. The campaign tried to do something about that and Ron has improved in those areas a bit with the exception of Foreign Policy.

Now the focus is on what? Ron finally beating Obama by 2% in 1 poll and the improvement in some state favorabilities? The money practically dried up.

I guess we'll see what Ron has to say tonight on Peirs Morgan...all I am saying is that we got to get real about Ron and the campaign. That is really a movement...and the campaign is the vechile to get out the message..I just wished that the message was crafted better to use the time on the national stage effectively. Cause the coverage of Ron is dwindling.

Expect to hear Morgan ask: So when are you dropping out?