New PPP poll in New Hampshire, Walker 1st, Cruz 2nd, Rand 3rd

[William Tell]

This poll is interesting, it shows Cruz gaining ground and Bush losing it. Rand pretty steady.

Walker, Clinton lead New Hampshire Primaries
Raleigh, N.C. –
Public Policy Polling's newest survey of the Republican primary for
President in New Hampshire finds Scott Walker in a tier by himself- 24% of voters say he's their top choice to 14% for Ted Cruz, 12% for Rand Paul, 10% for Jeb Bush, 8% each for Marco Rubio and Chris Christie, 7% each for Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson, and 4% for Rick Perry.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_41515.pdf

[url]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
[/URL]

 

[orenbus]

Rand's numbers haven't changed in NH according to PPP since over a year ago, the 12% number is his base. There is a enormous amount of work and/or impactful events that need to happen in NH to win over the soft voters.

In the same time Walker has gone from 3% to 24% and Christie has gone from 24% to 8%, power of the media...

Luckily these polls don't mean much until the final weeks before the primary.

 

[rg17]

Lets hope Rand push for 1st place!

 

[Crashland]

This is the first poll in a competitive state that was taken entirely after Rand's announcement. Holding steady, but no signs of a bump from the launch.

 

[eleganz]

Cruz seems to have gotten his bump late.

One thing about Jeb is I think he is staying under the radar on purpose. He doesn't want to be that guy that goes up and down repeatedly in the polls, he wants to be quiet until he announces, roll out with power and money and be the indisputable establishment front runner.

 

[MrGoose]

Looks like we're going to need probably 35-40% looking at history.

 

[JohnGalt1225]

I'm not overly concerned with polls this far out. The campaigning hasn't started in earnest yet. One more election where some establishment hack wins NH and I'm going to write that state off as being "libertarian."

 

[Uriah]

Rand has the second highest favorable of 54% behind Walker at 57%.

net positives:
Walker +44
Carson +31 (with 41% unsure)
Rand +29
Rubio +27
Cruz +24
Huckabee +18
Perry +10
Bush +1
Christie -15


Q11 (Republicans) Given the same list of choices,
who would be your second choice for the GOP
candidate for President in 2016?

Jeb Bush................................................. 13%
Ben Carson.............................................. 9%
Chris Christie........................................... 4%
Ted Cruz................................................. 7%
Mike Huckabee...........................................6%
Rand Paul ...............................................14%
Rick Perry................................................ 3%
Marco Rubio..............................................8%
Scott Walker............................................11%
Not sure..................................................23%


Walker is doing better with independents than Rand. Although, Rand had a higher percentage of the independents than Republicans.

 

[ssunlimited]

Guys I'm worried about Rand not being #1 now. What can we do about it?

 

[eleganz]

Guys I'm worried about Rand not being #1 now. What can we do about it?

Give him money www.randpaul.com/donate

 

[orenbus]

Guys I'm worried about Rand not being #1 now. What can we do about it?

If resources wasn't a question I would start up the Phone-From-Home program ASAP and take a page out of LFOD 07' and transport thousands of volunteers across the country to NH & Iowa from now until election day to do canvassing and voter ID activities for not just Repubs, but also for Independents and potential swing vote Dems. Then unleash huge targeted ad buys focused on whatever issues come out of the data collected that matches Rand's stances, and finally a GOTV push the likes no one has ever seen before. Fighting the MSM even in a small market state is an uphill battle, Santorum Iowa 12' was a perfect example of the power of the media.



For some perspective adding this link here for those interested in some Ron Paul campaign history that references the build up to NH in 07' and 11', the alarm bells that were going off, and the challenges and approaches we took to overcome some of the obstacles.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...re-Canvasers-amp-Post-Signs-in-NH-NEEDED-ASAP

If you read through that thread you'll notice there was even a discussion about letting Dems know to switch affiliation with only around two weeks left to figure out how to do this. Of course no serious effort was done (that I'm aware of) by the grassroots and after the primary we found out Ron Paul received 2,289 votes in the Dems primary in NH. Not that those votes would have won him the state that year instead of coming in second, since Romney got near 40% being from a neighboring state. However if it was closer for example in Iowa where the difference of winning or coming in second was near 3k, could be the difference between winning and losing.

 

[adelina]

Looks like Walker's strategy of hiding from the mainstream media while letting Fox do all the work for him is working so far.
However polls don't mean all that much at this point in time. Rand is polling in double digits so that's good enough at present. Come December however, he needs to be leading in most NH polls.

 

[Mr.NoSmile]

Guys I'm worried about Rand not being #1 now. What can we do about it?

Recognize and accept that he's not always going to be in the lead or win every single online poll and that there are other candidates who have supporters who would turn out in droves to vote for him, the same way we would for Paul? Just a thought.

 

[FriedChicken]

I've been pessimistic about NH for a while. Ever since seeing the polls where the overwhelming majority of primary voters would vote for Romney, again, I didn't think it was an electorate we'd have an easy time with.
This poll is too early to mean much, true, but I think NH will be a harder battle than many people realize.

 

[RDM]

I've been pessimistic about NH for a while. Ever since seeing the polls where the overwhelming majority of primary voters would vote for Romney, again, I didn't think it was an electorate we'd have an easy time with.
This poll is too early to mean much, true, but I think NH will be a harder battle than many people realize.

NH+Romney=Live Free or Die?
Yeah...something doesn't quite add up right.

 

[JohnGalt1225]

NH+Romney=Live Free or Die?
Yeah...something doesn't quite add up right.

I'm telling you, I'm about to give up on that state as being a "liberty" state.

 

[Stratovarious]

Guys I'm worried about Rand not being #1 now. What can we do about it?

For one thing, I would say 'foget about it' , don't worry.

I don't think #1 spot is a big deal at this point, 'early ripe, early rot' .

Rand sleighs in debate and with content, and delivery.....his msg is catching on, I've heard no one else that says much more than
what we've come to expect from Hillary...."....I'm going to get America back on track...higher wages, fix disfunctional families..." to paraphrase.

She does not have a plan , just some feel good phrases, Americans are more aware and a little bit smarter
than they were in 2008 and 2012.

, ,

 

[Foreigner]

So, I'm always checking the crosstabs to try to find some interesting trends. The standout from this poll is that Rand Paul has the highest favorability-numbers among female voters, and outperforms with women compared to men!

Compilation of the numbers:

This is despite the "Rand is anti-woman"-memes the dems have been pushing. I think this is really interesting numbers, although I can't explain them, as he previously were more popular among male voters.

 

[Mad Raven]

These early polls don't work well for someone like Rand. He's bringing new ideas to the table, and it takes time for people to get used to them. Time is on his side. It would be insane for him to be consistently ahead in many at this point, but the fact that he's doing even ok is an incredibly good sign, especially if he continues to get anywhere near this level of dinosaur media coverage. I don't think Ron ever did this well overall in state and national polls, did he? I don't mean internet polls, but the ones where they only call the retirees who have been voting for the same party every year and have nothing better to do but to sit at home answering polls on their rotary landlines.

 

[hells_unicorn]

Until every candidate has declared their intention to run, I see zero point in these polls as far as final numbers go, though some of the internals are a bit interesting. And as far as New Hampshire goes, you have to factor in the swarms of Massachusetts socialists that are fleeing their home state for one with a better economy and bringing their crappy politics with them. If New Hampshire had forbidden people from other parts of New England to enter their state a few decades back, things would be a bit different. NH was a liberty state a while back, but those days are long gone, unless they sell Nashua County to Massachusetts.