New CNN poll New Hampshire Rand magically goes from 2% to 6%

[Liberty74]

Guys, the prior polls are accurate. Stop with this nonsense. What we see happening is the race becoming very fluid. Why? Because this is the time when voters actually start tuning into the campaigns. The TV ads are going. The radio ad are going. The attacks are pounding away...how does Cruz feel? A candidate can say the wrong damn thing at the wrong damn time. The media can sway people from one candidate to another within a day. That's how we witnessed the Santorum surge in the last 2 weeks of the 2012 campaign.

Also, to analysis these polls correctly, you must look at who is being polled. Are the demos right based on historical evidence. Are Iowa and NH polls including the right amount of Indy voters based on historical turnouts. For Iowa in 2012 it was like 25% of the voters were Indy in the Republican caucus.

If Rand starts to tick up say to 8-12% and the media runs with that memo i.e. surging, watch out.

 

[Brett85]

Guys, the prior polls are accurate. Stop with this nonsense.

Not necessarily. I'm one of the most realistic people here, but just do a little bit of research and you'll find that even the pollsters themselves are saying it's getting harder and harder to conduct accurate polls, and the polls are getting less and less reliable all the time. The polls in the Kentucky Senate race were off by 10 to 15 points. The polls in Eric Cantor's house race were off by about 30 points. There is a precedent for the polls being way off. That doesn't mean it's going to happen this time, but it's not impossible.

 

[kbs021]

They can easily be wrong in Iowa. It's a caucus. They can not accurately predict a caucus where voters can register on caucus night.

 

[cornell]

Guys, the prior polls are accurate. Stop with this nonsense. What we see happening is the race becoming very fluid. Why? Because this is the time when voters actually start tuning into the campaigns. The TV ads are going. The radio ad are going. The attacks are pounding away...how does Cruz feel? A candidate can say the wrong damn thing at the wrong damn time. The media can sway people from one candidate to another within a day. That's how we witnessed the Santorum surge in the last 2 weeks of the 2012 campaign.

Also, to analysis these polls correctly, you must look at who is being polled. Are the demos right based on historical evidence. Are Iowa and NH polls including the right amount of Indy voters based on historical turnouts. For Iowa in 2012 it was like 25% of the voters were Indy in the Republican caucus.

If Rand starts to tick up say to 8-12% and the media runs with that memo i.e. surging, watch out.

What's your opinion on the fact that the DMR Poll that asked 2012 caucus choice was so off from reality? I don't doubt that their poll of their sample had Rand at 5% and Ron 2012 at 5%, however the key point here is that the sampling techniques are failing and not representative of who will caucus. Are we really to believe that 77% of Ron supporters in 2012 just disappeared and won't be caucusing for anyone?

 

[Badger Paul]

Well skipping the debate certainly didn't hurt.

 

[Brett85]

Unfortunately Gravis came out with a poll that only had Rand at 3%. Hopefully Fox News doesn't use that poll when determining who makes the next debate. But who knows.

 

[rp08orbust]

What's your opinion on the fact that the DMR Poll that asked 2012 caucus choice was so off from reality? I don't doubt that their poll of their sample had Rand at 5% and Ron 2012 at 5%, however the key point here is that the sampling techniques are failing and not representative of who will caucus. Are we really to believe that 77% of Ron supporters in 2012 just disappeared and won't be caucusing for anyone?

There are lots of possibilities for those 77% of Ron Paul 2012 voters. Some could be lying because they don't want their answer to be held against them. Some could be lying because they don't want to be seen as having supported a loser. Others could actually believe they voted for Santorum or Romney because their egos require them to have voted for a winner. Some of these explanations make them sound like stupid people, but Ron Paul had to attract the votes of a lot of stupid people to reach 21%.

 

[derek4ever]

Unfortunately Gravis came out with a poll that only had Rand at 3%. Hopefully Fox News doesn't use that poll when determining who makes the next debate. But who knows.

To be fair, gravis has usually had rand at 2% and 1% so it's a bit of an improvement! Was this poll released shortly??

 

[kbs021]

To be fair, gravis has usually had rand at 2% and 1% so it's a bit of an improvement! Was this poll released shortly??

Poll is done by automated service. Garbage poll, wouldn't be counted.

 

[FriedChicken]

Adding to the volatility of the race, just 31% of likely Republican voters say they have made up their minds about who they'll support in next month's primary.

Considering that this is the state that always votes for the establishment boys that is probably good news for Bush mostly.

Not that I'm hoping for that. But if Bush beat trump it would neuter trumps campaign. The main reason people like trump is because he's beating Bush.