New Paul/Conway Poll to be released ... UPDATE: Rand Paul up 5%

[ItsTime]

9% undecided is still a lot

how do we win those in the next few days?

By getting ON ISSUE

 

[Brett85]

They greatly oversampled Dems in this poll. They have 15% more Dems than Republicans, and it will most likely be about a 5 point difference. I'm not worried about the closeness of this poll after looking at that.

 

[MRoCkEd]

They greatly oversampled Dems in this poll. They have 15% more Dems than Republicans, and it will most likely be about a 5 point difference. I'm not worried about the closeness of this poll after looking at that.

Really? The sample seems okay to me.

2008 was:
Dem- 57.2%
Rep- 36.3%
Ind- 6.6%

This poll is:
Dem - 54%
Rep - 39%
Ind - 7%

This assumes the Dems will turn out at 3.2% lower, and Reps 2.7% higher. (GOP +5.9%)

 

[Cardinal Red]

If you look at the crosstabs on this poll

Things look very good for Rand. He's got another solid 5 point lead. Conway's Aqua Buddha gaffe will hurt him in trying to raise out of state $. When you look at the fundamentals, Conway just hasn't been able to tighten the race that much. There's been a little late tightening, but Conway has been consistently behind in almost every poll. He's never been over 50% and rarely even in the high 40s. By all means, lets not be complacent, but I just have a hard time seeing Conway getting 50%+1.

When you look on the RealClearPolitics poll averages, there are now seven races polling closer than this one. Dems are making their final media buys and are more likely to plow $ into one of those seven races than KY, where their guy has been consistently down.

We'll still sweat out election night, but in the end, we'll be smiling.

 

[Brett85]

Really? The sample seems okay to me.

2008 was:
Dem- 57.2%
Rep- 36.3%
Ind- 6.6%

This poll is:
Dem - 54%
Rep - 39%
Ind - 7%

This assumes the Dems will turn out at 3.2% lower, and Reps 2.7% higher. (GOP +5.9%)

No, those 2008 numbers were the number of registered voters in each party, not those who actually voted. A CNN exit poll of the 2008 election had it 47% Dem, 38% Rep, and 15% independent. This will be a great year for Republicans, and I would imagine Republican turnout should be even greater than 2008.

 

[ItsTime]

Really? The sample seems okay to me.

2008 was:
Dem- 57.2%
Rep- 36.3%
Ind- 6.6%

This poll is:
Dem - 54%
Rep - 39%
Ind - 7%

This assumes the Dems will turn out at 3.2% lower, and Reps 2.7% higher. (GOP +5.9%)

Yup so Rand should be up 10% come voting day. Dems are staying home this year.

 

[Romulus]

grain of salt .. only 625 people sampled.

 

[Brett85]

grain of salt .. only 625 people sampled.

The grain of salt is the over sampling of Democrats. Survey USA went from having a 5% dem turnout advantage to a 15% dem turnout advantage in their last poll, which was the reason why they only had Rand up by 2%.

 

[JoshLowry]

grain of salt .. only 625 people sampled.

That's how most polls are done.

 

[MRoCkEd]

No, those 2008 numbers were the number of registered voters in each party, not those who actually voted. A CNN exit poll of the 2008 election had it 47% Dem, 38% Rep, and 15% independent. This will be a great year for Republicans, and I would imagine Republican turnout should be even greater than 2008.

We were both wrong. I gave the registered voters, but here is the actual numbers (from KY SOS - the CNN exit poll you referenced was wrong).

Party Turnout
Dem- 57.9%
Rep- 37%
Ind- 5.2%

This poll is:
Dem - 54%
Rep - 39%
Ind - 7%

So, actually this assumes the Dems will turn out at 3.9% lower, and Reps 2% higher. But the end comparison is the same. This poll assumes a GOP +5.9% swing.

So, still seems accurate to me.

 

[Brett85]

We were both wrong. I gave the registered voters, but here is the actual (official numbers - that CNN exit poll was wrong).

Party Turnout
Dem- 57.9%
Rep- 37%
Ind- 5.2%

This poll is:
Dem - 54%
Rep - 39%
Ind - 7%

So, actually this assumes the Dems will turn out at 3.9% lower, and Reps 2% higher. But the end comparison is the same. This poll assumes a GOP +5.9% swing.

Seems accurate to me.

Do you have a link for that?

 

[sailingaway]

Where did you get those numbers from? Those numbers don't seem right either. Why would you say that the CNN exit poll was wrong?

Exit polls are those you can grab who want to talk to you. While you talk to one guy another will pass you by and leave. The official numbers are usually taken from the poll registry of who showed up.

 

[Maximus]

Thing is republicans are going to smash +2.9%

The early voting across the country has republicans coming out in droves

 

[Brett85]

Thing is republicans are going to smash +2.9%

The early voting across the country has republicans coming out in droves

I never realized what an uphill climb Rand has in Kentucky when Dems outnumber Reps by such a large margin. Hopefully if Rand gets elected the voter registration numbers will be more even by 2016.

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Taken from 'Page One Kentucky':

* 42% favorable for Rand Paul, 37% unfavorable, 21% neutral
* 40% favorable for Mitch McConnell, 33% unfavorable, 27% neutral
* 31% favorable for Jack Conway, 35% unfavorable, 33% neutral
* Conway wins in 3rd & 6th Congressional Districts by small margins – only 54% in the 3rd and 51% in the 6th
* 81% of Republicans support Rand Paul
* 65% of Democrats support Jack Conway
* Conway wins 39% of men, 46% of women
* Paul wins 55% of men, 41% of women

h XXp://pageonekentucky.com/2010/10/20/h-l-poll-rand-paul-48-jack-conway-43/

 

[MRoCkEd]

Do you have a link for that?

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyre...5-5E9E438B2C7F/176733/turnoutSUMMARYGEN08.txt

Here's more precise numbers.

2008 Turnout

Dem - 1,076,583/1,861,577 = 57.8318%
Rep - 688,561/1,861,577 = 36.9880%
Indy - 96,433/1,861,577 = 5.1802

 

[obijuan]

T* Conway wins 39% of men, 46% of women
* Paul wins 55% of men, 41% of women

6% of men undecided vs. 13% of women. This is why Conway is pushing Aqua Buddha, and why he has said many times that the women of Kentucky deserve answers blah blah blah.

Hop on it, campaign. Convince half the women and you win!

 

[sirgonzo420]

I never realized what an uphill climb Rand has in Kentucky when Dems outnumber Reps by such a large margin. Hopefully if Rand gets elected the voter registration numbers will be more even by 2016.

Kentucky has a lot of social conservatives who are registered democrats.

Hell, my grandpa is as republican as can be, but used to be registered democrat simply so he could vote in democratic primaries to chose the eventual democratic candidate who he would then vote against in the general.

A lot of registered democrats in Kentucky are "DINO's".

A Kentucky democrat is NOT at all the same thing as a Massachusetts or California democrat.

Look at the the stats for the 2008 election; McCain carried Kentucky, even though I'm sure more registered democrats went to the polls.

 

[JohnGalt23g]

The NRSC needs to get some ads up boosting Rand with GOP voters. He should be getting more than 81% at this point.

Other than let, let's keep on truckin', and beat that Louisville fancy lad like a red-headed stepchild.

 

[Libertea Party]

We were both wrong. I gave the registered voters, but here is the actual numbers (from KY SOS - the CNN exit poll you referenced was wrong).

Party Turnout
Dem- 57.9%
Rep- 37%
Ind- 5.2%

This poll is:
Dem - 54%
Rep - 39%
Ind - 7%

So, actually this assumes the Dems will turn out at 3.9% lower, and Reps 2% higher. But the end comparison is the same. This poll assumes a GOP +5.9% swing.

So, still seems accurate to me.

It's complicated but Survey USA made a good argument about it. Basically says that registered Dems may self identify as Republican or Independent since many of them don't vote in primaries. Here is the more detailed argument.